Tongding Interconnection Hits Limit Up: High-Risk Game Amid Red-Hot Theme Speculation

This analysis starts from the event where Tongding Interconnection (002491) entered the limit-up pool recorded by tushare_zt_pool at 17:15:36 on December 17, 2025 (UTC+8) [0]. This time point coincided with a window of high volatility in the communication/optical module sector at year-end, as market capital chase for AI infrastructure intensified.

• Tongding Interconnection hit the limit-up at 9:39 today, with 90.98 million shares traded—far exceeding the 5-day average. Volume-driven limit-up indicates rapid inflow of short-term funds, but price action was not accompanied by significant fundamental improvement [0].
• Collective拉升 of the optical module and communication equipment sectors directly catalyzed the limit-up. Leaders like Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable hitting limit-up drove related stocks higher; the A-share communication index and multiple ETFs performed positively on December 17, reflecting obvious industry resonance [2].
• Optical module price and capacity trends support theme continuation: Upgrades from 800G to 1.6T/3.2T have caused price surges, with orders for key optical chips (e.g., Lumentum’s EML) scheduled until 2026/2027, widening supply-demand gaps and boosting industry chain valuations [2].
• Global computing power investment and energy issues form a superimposed effect: Cloud vendors like Google and AWS continue to increase computing power investment; NVIDIA’s “Data Center Power Supply” summit emphasized energy shortages, further strengthening market expectations for AI infrastructure and related theme stocks, artificially pushing up prices of companies with optical module businesses [3].
• However, the capital structure—main funds outflowing on December 16 while retail investors took over—reminds that this round of limit-up relies mainly on short-term capital games. Closely track whether Dragon and Tiger List seats see hot money relay [0][1].

1. Theme Heat Disconnected from Fundamentals
   : Heat supported by AI computing power and optical communication prosperity contrasts with Tongding Interconnection’s stagnant profitability (0.12% net profit margin, negative operating margin, P/E ratio over 2,000x), indicating that upward momentum is highly dependent on market expectations [0].
2. Capital Structure Shift Signals Potential Correction
   : Main funds and hot money previously outflowed but prices still sealed limit-up quickly, showing “capital stampede”-style short-term chasing. Without strong relay in subsequent Dragon and Tiger Lists, selling pressure may release rapidly [0][1].
3. High Sector Dependence
   : If leaders like Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable retrace, Tongding Interconnection cannot maintain strength independently; ongoing sector rotation means some theme stocks will be selectively switched by capital [2][3].
4. Macro/Energy Issues Remain Supportive
   : NVIDIA’s emphasis on power supply bottlenecks and the “Energy Powerhouse” statement in the Central Economic Work Conference form external support, indicating AI and power-related infrastructure still receive dual policy and market attention [3].

• Risks
  :
  • Severe valuation imbalance (2,043x P/E), near-zero profitability, weak fundamental support—any capital withdrawal may trigger sharp corrections [0].
  • Technical indicators (RSI) show overbought conditions; high-level chips are prone to short-term profit-taking. If tomorrow’s limit-up fails to continue, it may retrace directly to support levels at 5.78 or even 5.50 [0].
  • Polarized capital signals: Main funds continue net outflow while retail investors take over; without hot money relay in Dragon and Tiger Lists, short-term retracement probability increases [0][1].
  • Obvious theme speculation—lacking substantive support from performance, orders, or major collaborations. Sector heat retreat may lead to rapid price correction [2][3].
• Opportunities
  :
  • If the optical communication sector continues to rise and tomorrow’s Dragon and Tiger List shows well-known hot money relay or main fund inflow, short-term resistance in the 6.45-6.89 range may be tested [2].
  • Global AI computing power construction is still expanding; infrastructure themes like power and optical modules have not retreated, providing betting logic for short-term funds [2][3].
  • Central-level emphasis on energy and tech support policies may provide mid-term pro-cyclical capital support [3].

• This limit-up stems from industry theme resonance and AI/energy superposition, not sudden financial or business利好 of Tongding Interconnection itself [0][2][3].
• Technical patterns show strong breakthroughs but also overbought conditions; capital structure indicates main funds exited earlier, so future trends depend highly on sector leaders and capital relay [0][1][2].
• Risk control: Focus on whether today’s limit-up price of 6.22 can be held, whether Dragon and Tiger Lists have large capital relay, and whether core sector assets (e.g., Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable) remain strong. If multiple conditions are not met, retracement to the 5.50-5.78 range becomes highly likely [0][1].
• Given unchanged fundamentals and valuation far above industry averages, medium-to-long-term investors should remain cautious or seek alternatives with more solid fundamentals; short-term gamers need strict stop-loss and real-time tracking of capital flows and sector heat [0][2].