2026 U.S. Market Outlook: RBC’s Calvasina Forecasts Balanced Optimism With Persistent Angst

This analysis is based on a December 17, 2025 CNBC “Squawk Box” interview [4] featuring Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy research at RBC Capital Markets, who discussed her 2026 market outlook. The interview’s key takeaway was Calvasina’s prediction of a “good year” for markets paired with a note of “lots of angst,” though specific details on earnings expectations and the sources of this angst were not available from the limited event content provided.

On the day of the interview, U.S. major indices exhibited mixed performance: the S&P 500 closed down 0.24% at $6,800.26, the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.23% to $23,111.46, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.62% to $48,114.26 [0]. Contextual analysis shows the S&P 500 remains near its 52-week high ($6,920.34), indicating ongoing market resilience despite daily volatility. The NASDAQ’s outperformance likely reflects continued AI sector momentum—a key theme in 2025–2026 strategist outlooks [0, 3], while the Dow’s underperformance suggests potential rotation out of blue-chip stocks or sector-specific concerns. All indices traded below their 52-week average volumes, consistent with pre-holiday market thinning (December options expiration occurs on December 19, 2025), which can amplify volatility [0].

Calvasina’s balanced optimism with caution aligns with broader 2026 strategist sentiment. Goldman Sachs forecasts 12% earnings growth for the year [1], JPMorgan’s Dubravko Lakos projects the S&P 500 could exceed 8,000 if the Federal Reserve implements further rate cuts [2], and SoFi’s Liz Thomas notes “not many strong reasons to be bearish into 2026” [1].

1. Mixed Market Reaction Reflects Sentiment Tension
   : The December 17 mixed index performance mirrors the “angst” Calvasina referenced—investors are balancing near-term volatility and pre-holiday thinning with broader consensus optimism for 2026.
2. AI Momentum Drives NASDAQ Outperformance
   : The NASDAQ’s gains highlight the continued importance of AI as a core investment theme in 2026, a trend corroborated by Reuters’ report on AI’s growing prominence in strategies [3].
3. Peer Consensus Hinges on Earnings and Fed Policy
   : The broad expectation of a “good year” across strategists, including Calvasina, relies on two key factors: strong earnings growth (forecasted 10–12%) and potential Fed rate cuts.

• Sentiment Vulnerability
  : The undefined “angst” referenced by Calvasina suggests potential market sensitivity to unexpected events, such as Fed policy shifts, geopolitical escalations, or AI bubble concerns.
• Volume-Driven Volatility
  : Pre-holiday low volumes can lead to exaggerated price movements, making short-term trends less reliable.
• Earnings Growth Dependence
  : Bullish 2026 outlooks are contingent on meeting forecasted earnings growth; any shortfall could derail momentum [3].

• Fed Easing Upside
  : JPMorgan’s projection of an S&P 500 exceeding 8,000 with further Fed rate cuts presents a potential upside opportunity [2].
• AI Sector Momentum
  : The NASDAQ’s outperformance indicates ongoing strength in AI-related stocks, which are expected to remain core to 2026 investment strategies [0, 3].

This analysis summarizes RBC’s Calvasina’s balanced 2026 market outlook, December 17 market performance, and peer strategist sentiment. Critical gaps remain, including specific drivers of Calvasina’s “angst,” detailed earnings projections, and sector-specific recommendations. Decision-makers should monitor earnings growth trends, Fed policy updates, and geopolitical developments to contextualize future market movements. No specific investment recommendations are provided.