Analysis: Fed Chair Candidate Waller’s Commitment to Central Bank Independence Amid Trump’s Past Criticisms

This analysis is based on a December 17, 2025, CNBC report [1] where Fed chair finalist Christopher Waller—appointed to the Fed by Trump in 2020—stated he will “absolutely” emphasize central bank independence during his upcoming interview with the president, citing 20 years of professional work and research on the topic. The Fed’s independence, protected by law through long tenures and removal safeguards, is designed to insulate monetary policy from short-term political pressures, prioritizing long-term economic stability (including inflation control) over electoral cycles [2].

Waller’s commitment is particularly significant given Trump’s history of challenging the Fed’s autonomy. Trump has publicly criticized Chair Jerome Powell (calling him a “numbskull” for resisting aggressive rate cuts), attempted to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook (appointed by Joe Biden), and repeatedly called on the Fed to align with his policy preferences [3][4]. These actions led legal experts to warn of a “dangerous precedent” that could erode the Fed’s credibility and disrupt global markets [2].

Notably, Waller is not the only candidate emphasizing independence: fellow finalist Kevin Hassett also recently expressed support for maintaining the central bank’s autonomy [6], suggesting a degree of consensus among leading candidates despite Trump’s past criticisms. Waller’s background as a dovish governor (who dissented in July 2025 against a decision to keep rates unchanged [5]) adds complexity, as it creates potential tension between his support for rate cuts and his commitment to independent, inflation-focused policy.

1. Consensus on Independence Among Candidates
   : The alignment of Waller (a Trump-appointed governor) and Hassett on Fed independence indicates that even candidates with ties to the president recognize the critical role of autonomy for maintaining market confidence and long-term economic stability.
2. Dual Stance Creates Tension
   : Waller’s combination of dovish policy preferences (supporting rate cuts) and commitment to independence raises questions about how he would balance political pressure for looser monetary policy with the Fed’s mandate to control inflation.
3. Market Sensitivity to Independence Threats
   : Historical market reactions—including a 3% drop in the S&P 500 and 8% surge in gold when Trump attempted to remove Lisa Cook in early 2025 [2]—highlight the significant impact of perceived threats to Fed independence on asset prices.

• Persistent Presidential Pressure
  : Trump’s past actions and statements suggest he may continue to pressure the Fed for rate cuts, regardless of the chair’s identity, which could erode the central bank’s credibility and trigger market volatility [2].
• Deviation from Independence Commitment
  : If Waller succumbs to political pressure and deviates from his stated commitment to independence, it could lead to inflationary pressures and undermine global confidence in the U.S. dollar.

• Market Reassurance
  : Waller’s clear stance on independence, backed by 20 years of research, could stabilize markets if he is appointed by reassuring investors of the Fed’s ability to act autonomously [1].
• Consensus Among Candidates
  : The shared emphasis on independence by leading candidates reduces the risk of immediate and severe political interference in monetary policy, regardless of who is selected.

• Event Context
  : The Fed chair selection process is underway as Jerome Powell’s term ends in May 2026.
• Waller’s Background
  : A Trump-appointed Fed governor since 2020, Waller has a track record of supporting rate cuts and has 20 years of work on central bank independence.
• Trump’s Past Stance
  : The president has repeatedly criticized the Fed and attempted to assert political influence over its decisions.
• Unresolved Questions
  : The full transcript of Waller’s interview is unavailable, real-time market reaction data for December 17, 2025, is not yet available, and there is no information on Trump’s potential response to Waller’s emphasis on independence.