Analysis of Ali Network's 3% Stake Reduction in 翱捷科技 (688220.SH) and Its Impact

Based on my comprehensive analysis of the stake reduction event of翱捷科技 (688220.SH) by Ali Network, the following is a detailed assessment of its impact on stock price and investor confidence:

Ali Network cumulatively reduced its holdings of翱捷科技 (688220.SH) by 12.549 million shares through block trades and centralized bidding, accounting for 3% of the company’s total share capital. The price range for the reduction was 73.42-99.46 CNY per share, with a total cash proceeds of approximately 1.056 billion CNY. After the completion of the reduction, Ali Network’s shareholding ratio decreased from 15.43% to 12.4333%[1][2].

1. Significant Price Pressure
   : According to the chart, the stock price of翱捷科技 dropped from a high of around 103 CNY in September to approximately 83 CNY recently, a decline of about 19%, showing obvious pressure during the reduction period[3].
2. Liquidity Dilution Effect
   : Large-scale reduction increases market supply, suppressing the stock price in the short term.
3. Reduction Price Range
   : The reduction price range of 73.42-99.46 CNY per share indicates insufficient market willingness to take up the shares, reflecting investors’ divergence on this price level.

1. Remains the Largest Shareholder
   : After the reduction, Ali Network still holds 12.43% of the shares and maintains its position as the largest single shareholder, indicating its continued long-term confidence in the company[1].
2. Relatively Moderate Reduction Method
   : It mainly adopted block trades, reducing the direct impact on the secondary market.

1. Signal of Strategic Shareholder Exit
   : The reduction by Ali, an important strategic investor, may be interpreted by the market as concerns about the company’s prospects.
2. Fundamental Pressure
   : The company reported a loss of nearly 500 million CNY in the first three quarters, with R&D expenses increasing by about 11%, putting pressure on its fundamentals[1].
3. Valuation Level
   : The current market capitalization is about 36-38.3 billion CNY, corresponding to a predicted price-to-earnings ratio of approximately -94 times for 2025, indicating significant valuation pressure[2].

1. Promising Industry Prospects
   : As an AI edge SoC enterprise, it benefits from the implementation and commercialization of AI edge technologies, and many securities firms have given it an ‘Outperform’ rating[2].
2. Technological Innovation Capability
   : The company has technical accumulation in chip design, especially in AI chips and wireless communication chips.
3. Policy Support
   : The semiconductor industry continues to receive policy support, and the trend of domestic substitution is clear.

According to the latest data:

• Stock Price Performance
  :翱捷科技 performed relatively well in the domestic AI chip index, with a recent increase of 3.7%, outperforming the overseas AI chip index in the same period[3].
• Institutional Ratings
  : Institutions such as Guosen Securities maintained the ‘Outperform’ rating with a target price of 91.62 CNY, believing that profitability is expected to be achieved in 2026[2].

1. Short-Term Wait-and-See
   : It is recommended to remain cautious in the initial stage after the completion of the reduction and pay attention to signals of stock price stabilization.
2. Focus on Fundamental Improvement
   : Focus on tracking the company’s product commercialization progress and the timeline for turning losses into profits.
3. Seize Industry Opportunities
   : The growth in demand for AI edge chips brings long-term development opportunities for the company.

1. Risk of Continued Reduction
   : Whether Ali Network will further reduce its holdings needs to be closely monitored.
2. Risk of Performance Loss
   : The company is still in a loss state, and its profitability needs to be improved.
3. Intensified Industry Competition
   : The semiconductor industry is highly competitive, with rapid technological iteration.

Overall, the 3% stake reduction by Ali Network has had a short-term negative impact on the stock price of翱捷科技. However, considering that it remains the largest shareholder after the reduction and the company is in the high-growth AI chip track, the long-term impact is relatively limited. Investors should focus on the company’s fundamental improvement and commercialization progress rather than over-focusing on a single reduction event. It is recommended that investors with strong risk tolerance can pay attention after the stock price stabilizes, while conservative investors can wait for the company’s performance to improve significantly before deploying.

[1] QQ News - “Alibaba大幅度 reduces holdings in翱捷科技: cashes out over 900 million CNY, the latter loses nearly 500 million CNY in 9 months” (https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20251204A02S1200)
[2] Guosen Securities Research Report - “Semiconductor December Investment Strategy” (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202512111798190315_1.pdf)
[3] Guoyuan Securities Research Report - “Semiconductor and Semiconductor Production Equipment Industry Weekly Report” (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202512151801020353_1.pdf)
[4] Sina Finance - “翱捷科技(688220.SH): Ali Network completes 3% stake reduction” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/bxjj/2025-12-17/doc-inhccnec7318176.shtml)