In-depth Analysis of the Correlation Between Moutai Liquor Prices and Wage Income, and Its Investment Value

Based on data analysis, Moutai liquor prices have indeed remained stable in the range of 30%-50% of urban monthly income for a long time. This pricing logic reflects its unique attribute as a ‘social currency’. However, changes in the current market environment are challenging this traditional pricing model, and investors need to re-evaluate Moutai’s investment value.

According to historical data analysis, from 2001 to 2024, the wholesale price of Moutai liquor did remain stable in the range of 30%-50% of the monthly wage of urban private sector employees [1]. This correlation reflects Moutai’s unique pricing mechanism:

• In 2024, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was approximately 4515 yuan/month
• Reasonable price range for Moutai: 1505-2258 yuan/bottle, average 1882 yuan/bottle [1]
• Current price (1485-1495 yuan) has fallen back to the range of 25%-38% of monthly income, which is at a relatively low historical level [3]

Moutai’s pricing logic is based on three core elements:

1. Social Threshold Effect
   : The 30%-50% share of monthly income ensures the scarcity of Moutai as a high-end social gift
2. Wealth Identification Function
   : Moutai’s price rises in sync with income levels, maintaining its status as a symbol of wealth
3. Investment Appreciation Attribute
   : The expectation of price growth with wage increases supports its investment and collection value

In December 2025, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai fell to 1485-1495 yuan, breaking below the 1499 yuan guidance price, hitting a historical low [3]. This phenomenon reflects the challenges facing the traditional pricing logic:

• Contraction in Business Consumption
  : Changes in the macroeconomic environment have led to structural contraction in rigid demand such as business banquets and gift-giving [2]
• Stripping of Financial Attributes
  : A landmark event in the shift from the ‘financial asset logic’ to the ‘consumer goods industry logic’ [2]
• Inventory Pressure
  : Social channel distributors are selling at low prices due to cash pressure, forming industry-wide panic selling [2]

Despite the challenges, Moutai’s core supporting factors remain solid:

• ROE as high as 36.48%, net profit margin 51.51%, extremely strong profitability [0]
• Low financial risk, current ratio 6.62, sound financial position [0]
• Brand scarcity is irreplaceable, and its status as a ‘social currency’ is difficult to撼动 in the short term

• Inventory digestion takes time; industry recovery is expected to come in 2028 [2]
• Reduction in consumption scenarios, weak demand for business and gifts
• Reconstruction of price system, gradual stripping of financial attributes

• Current valuation is at a historical low, with PE only 19.94 times [0]
• The company is actively adjusting its strategy and launching ‘volume control to protect prices’ measures
• Policy-level support for consumption recovery; Moutai benefits from the long-term trend of consumption upgrading

1. Income Growth Support
   : Per capita disposable income of urban residents continues to grow; the middle-income group is expected to increase to 550-600 million people, with an annual growth rate of about 3% [1]
2. Consumption Upgrading Trend
   : The expansion of the middle and high-income groups brings new opportunities to the high-end liquor market
3. Increased Industry Concentration
   : The Matthew effect is obvious; leading liquor companies continue to increase their market share [1]

• Shift from a pure investment product to a dual attribute of ‘investment + consumption’
• The price range may be adjusted to a more reasonable range of 25%-40%
• More emphasis on actual consumption demand rather than speculative demand

• Current stock price is 1433.10 yuan, still has room to rise compared to the historical high of 2627.88 yuan [0]
• PE 19.94 times, PB 6.98 times, valuation is in a reasonable range [0]
• Dividend yield is attractive, providing a safety margin

Based on analysis, Moutai performs excellently in terms of profitability and financial soundness, but is relatively conservative in terms of growth and valuation levels.

• Pay attention to the Spring Festival sales situation; this is a key observation window
• If the price continues to drop below 1400 yuan, consider building positions in batches
• Focus on observing the effect of the company’s ‘volume control to protect prices’ policy

• Moutai’s position as a leading liquor company will not change
• With consumption upgrading and income growth, the pricing logic will be reconstructed but will not fail
• Currently is a strategic window period for positioning core consumer assets

1. Inventory De-stocking Risk
   : Slow digestion of social inventory may continue to suppress prices [2]
2. Consumption Downgrade Risk
   : Economic downturn may lead to further shrinkage of high-end consumption
3. Policy Regulatory Risk
   : Anti-corruption policies affect demand for high-end gifts
4. Increased Competition Risk
   : Other high-end liquor brands may seize market share

• Diversify investments; do not concentrate all funds on a single stock
• Pay attention to macroeconomic trends and policy changes
• Regularly track the company’s fundamentals and channel inventory situation

The pricing logic of Moutai liquor prices correlating to 30%-50% of income has been effective in the long term historically, reflecting its unique value positioning as a ‘social currency’. Although the current market environment poses challenges to this traditional logic, these challenges are more short-term structural adjustments rather than long-term trend reversals.

• The pricing logic is still sustainable but needs to adapt to the new market environment
• The current price correction provides investors with a good opportunity to position themselves
• Moutai’s long-term investment value is based on its irreplaceable brand scarcity and profitability
• It is recommended to adopt an investment strategy of building positions in batches and holding for the long term

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[0] Jinling API Data - Moutai stock price, financial data and analysis
[1] Guosen Securities Research Report - Liquor Sector Investment Strategy and Industry Analysis
[2] China Industry News - "‘Moutai, Wuliangye ‘Price Drop’ How the Liquor Industry Crosses the Ultra-long Cycle’ (2025-12-13)
[3] 21st Century Business Herald - ‘Moutai Price Rebounds to Promote ‘Marketization’ Next Year’ (2025-12-15)