Financial Risk and Investment Value Analysis of Vanke A's 200 Million Yuan Loan Guarantee Extension for Shenzhen Boyu

Based on the information you provided regarding Vanke A’s 200 million yuan loan guarantee extension for Shenzhen Boyu, I will conduct an in-depth analysis from two dimensions: financial risk and investment value.

Vanke is currently facing severe financial challenges, and the company has recently encountered setbacks in bond extensions. According to reports, Vanke failed to obtain bondholders’ approval to extend the repayment of 2 billion yuan in domestic bonds, leaving only 5 working days of grace period to pay the funds [1][2]. This incident directly reflects the company’s current liquidity pressure.

From the perspective of financial data, Vanke’s financial situation is worrying:

• Weak stock performance: Down 39.07% in the past year and 29.65% in the past three months [0]
• Deteriorating profitability: ROE is -31.07%, net profit margin is -20.92% [0]
• Negative free cash flow: The latest FCF is -720 million yuan [0]

1. Relatively manageable scale
   : The 200 million yuan guarantee is relatively small compared to Vanke’s market capitalization of 58.77 billion US dollars
2. Risk mitigation measures
   : Shenzhen Fuchun provides asset mortgage guarantees, reducing direct risk exposure
3. Within authorized scope
   : The company operates within the authorized limit, complying with internal control requirements

1. Risk of chain reaction
   : If Boyu encounters repayment difficulties, it may trigger a chain reaction of other guarantee liabilities
2. Impact on market confidence
   : Continuous guarantee activities may further weaken investors’ confidence in Vanke’s financial stability
3. Liquidity consumption
   : The guarantee extension indicates that the subsidiary has tight cash flow and may require parent company support

According to financial analysis, Vanke’s debt risk is classified as “medium risk”, but considering the recent failed bond extension and deteriorating market environment, the actual risk may be higher [0].

The current stock price is 4.96 yuan, and the price-to-book ratio is only 0.34 times, which is in the historical low valuation range [0]. However, DCF valuation analysis shows great uncertainty:

• Conservative scenario: Intrinsic value is -14.34 yuan
• Base scenario: Intrinsic value is 181.28 yuan
• Optimistic scenario: Intrinsic value is -753.17 yuan [0]

This huge valuation fluctuation reflects the high uncertainty faced by the company.

As Vanke’s long-term rental apartment business, Boyu has certain strategic significance:

1. Policy support
   : Long-term rental apartments are in line with the national policy orientation of “simultaneous development of rental and purchase”
2. Cash flow potential
   : Can provide stable rental cash flow when mature
3. Business transformation
   : Helps Vanke transform from a developer to an urban supporting service provider

• Bond maturity pressure and refinancing risk
• Sustained downturn in the real estate market affects sales collection
• Guarantee liabilities may further expand

• Policy bottom may bring industry recovery opportunities
• Low valuation provides a margin of safety
• Diversified business layout has potential

Vanke A’s 200 million yuan loan guarantee extension for Shenzhen Boyu is a relatively small-scale financial arrangement, but it has symbolic significance in the current environment.

Investors should focus on: 1) The progress of the company’s bond repayment; 2) Policy changes in the real estate industry; 3) The improvement of the company’s cash flow. Before risks are fully released, it is recommended to maintain a cautious attitude.