Bada Group (600865.SH): Analysis of Drivers and Risks Behind Short-Term Surge

Bada Group (600865.SH) recently made it to the hot list mainly due to short-term abnormal stock price fluctuations. As of December 16, 2025, the company’s stock price has hit the 10% daily limit for four consecutive trading days (December 11, 12, 15, and 16) on the A-share market, with a cumulative increase of 46.44%[1].

The driving factors mainly include sector linkage effects: Recently, the retail concept sector has seen a significant increase in activity, with peer stocks such as Yonghui Supermarket and Hongqi Chain hitting daily limits[3]. The market expects the government to introduce policies to stimulate service consumption, supporting the domestic demand consumption sector; Bada Group has received capital attention due to this sector linkage[3].

However, the company’s fundamentals have not improved: In the first three quarters of 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company decreased by 81.78% compared with the same period last year[1], and its main business remains retail and real estate leasing, with no major changes[2]. From a valuation perspective, as of December 16, the company’s static P/E ratio was 40.75 and rolling P/E ratio was 214.79, significantly higher than the industry average (static 27.62, rolling 27.4), indicating an overvalued status[1].

1. The short-term rise is a speculative market driven by policy expectations, lacking fundamental support. The company’s declining performance and high valuation show a clear divergence from the stock price increase.
2. The company has issued risk warnings[1][2], clearly stating that there are no undisclosed major events, no media reports or market rumors affecting the stock price, further indicating the irrationality of the stock price rise.

• Price Correction Risk
  : The short-term 46.44% increase far exceeds the market performance in the same period, with high profit-taking pressure and the possibility of a high-level correction[1].
• Overvaluation Risk
  : The P/E ratio is significantly higher than the industry average, and the stock price lacks profit support in the long run[1].
• Performance Decline Risk
  : Net profit dropped sharply in the first three quarters; if subsequent performance does not improve, it will continue to pressure the stock price[1].
• Policy Uncertainty Risk
  : The specific content, implementation time, and effect of consumption stimulus policies are all uncertain, which may affect the sustainability of the sector’s market.

• If the government’s consumption stimulus policy is implemented and effective, the retail sector as a whole will benefit, and Bada Group may be driven. However, attention should be paid to the specific details of the policy and the actual benefit situation of the company.

Bada Group (600865.SH) recently became a hot stock due to four consecutive daily limits and a cumulative increase of 46.44%, with the core driver being the linkage effect of policy expectations in the retail sector. However, the company’s fundamentals are poor, valuation is too high, and it has issued risk warnings. Investors need to pay attention to the policy implementation situation, fluctuations after the daily limit is lifted, the possibility of the company’s performance improvement, and the industry valuation level. This report only provides information integration and does not constitute investment advice.