In-depth Analysis of Investment Value of Kweichow Moutai: Based on Historical Patterns of Liquor Price to Income Ratio

According to historical data analysis, there is indeed an obvious

in the ratio of Moutai liquor price to Chinese urban residents’ income. This pattern provides strong fundamental support for Moutai’s long-term investment value.

• Historical data from 2001-2024 shows
  , Moutai liquor price has basically stabilized in the range of 30%-50% of urban residents’ monthly income [1]
• Current price pullback
  to the range of 25%-38%, returning to a relatively low historical level with strong margin of safety [1]
• Income support logic
  : When urban residents’ monthly disposable income can buy 2-3 bottles of Moutai, the proportion of mass drinking consumption increases, effectively digesting social inventory [1]

• In January 2025, the per capita monthly disposable income of urban residents was approximately 4335 yuan
• The price of original case Feitian Moutai is about 2255 yuan, with a wholesale price/income ratio of about 52%
• It has dropped by 50 percentage points from the historical high of 102%, and the bubble is clearing at an accelerated pace [1]

1433.10 yuan (as of December 17, 2025) [0]

• Short-term Performance
  : Down 8.02% in the past year, down 19.17% in the past 3 years, down 23.18% in the past 5 years [0]
• Technical Analysis
  : Currently in a sideways consolidation state, with support level at 1424.75 yuan and resistance level at 1441.45 yuan [0]
• Technical Indicators
  : MACD forms a golden cross (bullish signal), KDJ indicator shows a bullish trend [0]

Based on DCF scenario analysis from brokerage API [0]:

• Conservative Scenario
  : 1088.32 yuan (-24.1%)
• Neutral Scenario
  : 1576.71 yuan (+10.0%)
• Optimistic Scenario
  : 2564.80 yuan (+79.0%)
• Probability-weighted Value
  : 1743.28 yuan (+21.6% upside potential)

• Return on Equity (ROE)
  : 36.48% - Industry-leading level
• Net Profit Margin
  : 51.51% - Extremely high profitability
• Operating Profit Margin
  :71.37% - Excellent cost control [0]

• Current Ratio
  :6.62 - Sufficient liquidity
• Quick Ratio
  :5.18 - Strong short-term debt repayment ability
• Healthy asset-liability structure with low debt risk
  [0]

• Per capita monthly disposable income of urban residents increased from about 3000 yuan/month in 2020 to4515 yuan/month in2024 [1]
• The middle-income group is expected to increase to550-600 million people, with an annual growth rate of about3% [2]
• The compound growth rate of high-income groups reaches5.07%, and the consumption upgrade trend is clear [2]

• High-end Consumption Resilience
  : In the K-shaped consumption recovery, high-end luxury goods perform well [3]
• Strengthened Social Attribute
  : Moutai’s position as a “social currency” is irreplaceable in business activities and cultural inheritance
• Increased Collection Value
  : Scarcity + cultural value + financial attributes form triple support

• The liquor industry shows the “Matthew Effect”, with leading enterprises’ market share continuing to expand [2]
• The revenue share of the three leading liquor enterprises (Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao) increased from11.92% in2016 to34.92% in2023 [2]
• The trend of high-end liquor market concentrating on leading enterprises is irreversible

1. Macroeconomic Risk
   : Economic downturn may affect business consumption and investment demand
2. Policy Risk
   : Anti-corruption policies may impact high-end liquor consumption
3. Valuation Risk
   : Current P/E ratio is19.94x, P/B ratio is6.98x; valuation is relatively reasonable but not cheap
4. Market Sentiment Risk
   : Stock price has been adjusting continuously in recent years, and it will take time for market confidence to recover

1. Price Returns to Reasonable Range
   : Current wholesale price/income ratio is52%, close to historical bottom area
2. Driven by Consumption Upgrade
   : Expansion of middle class brings long-term growth momentum to high-end liquor market
3. Brand Moat
   : Moutai’s brand value and cultural accumulation are difficult to replicate
4. Capacity Expansion Potential
   : The company still has room for capacity expansion and product structure optimization

Based on historical patterns and fundamental analysis,

:

1. Price Center Pattern is Effective
   : The price center of 30%-50% income ratio has statistical and economic basis
2. High Certainty of Income Growth
   : Against the backdrop of China’s economic transformation and upgrading and expansion of middle-income groups
3. Deep Brand Moat
   : Triple barriers of cultural value + social attribute + scarcity
4. Excellent Financial Quality
   : Characteristics of high-quality assets with high ROE, high profit margin, and low debt

• First Batch
  : Start building positions around current price (1400-1450 yuan)
• Addition Point
  : Increase positions if it pulls back to around 1383 yuan (52-week low)
• Target Price
  : Neutral scenario at1576.71 yuan, optimistic scenario can see above 2000 yuan

• It is expected that in the next3-5 years, as residents’ income continues to grow, Moutai’s price center will move up synchronously
• Conservative Annualized Return Expectation
  :10-15% (based on DCF neutral scenario)
• Risk Control
  : It is recommended to control the position within10-20% of the investment portfolio

The current price ratio of 25%-38% is at a relatively low historical level, providing a good margin of safety for long-term investors.

The current stock price adjustment is more affected by market sentiment and short-term factors rather than fundamental deterioration.

From the valuation perspective, the current price of 1433.10 yuan still has a discount of about10% compared to the DCF neutral valuation of 1576.71 yuan, which has investment value. Investors are advised to deploy in batches from a long-term perspective to share the dividends of China’s consumption upgrade and continuous improvement of Moutai’s brand value.

---

[0] Gilin API Data - Kweichow Moutai (600519.SS) Real-time Quotes, Financial Data, Technical Analysis and DCF Valuation
[1] TF Securities Research Report - Special Research on Liquor Industry, Analysis of Moutai Wholesale Price to Per Capita Income Ratio
[2] Caida Securities Research Report - Investment Value Analysis of Kweichow Moutai (600519), Growth Trend of Middle-income Group
[3] Xingzheng Strategy Report - How Foreign Investors View A-shares in2026, Analysis of K-shaped Consumption Recovery