In-depth Analysis of Investment Prospects for High-Dividend Blue-Chip Stocks in 2026

From 2022 to 2025 actual data, Agricultural Bank of China showed typical slow-bull characteristics:

• Cumulative increase of 67.24%
  , annualized return of 13.72%
• Low volatility
  : Annualized volatility of only 17.48%, Sharpe ratio of 0.785
• Maximum drawdown controlled at -16.63%
  , reflecting strong defensiveness

• Performance
  : Cumulative increase of 92.51% from 2022 to 2025, annualized return of 17.79%
• Valuation
  : Current P/E 10.87x, P/B 1.12x, ROE 10.45%
• Financial Features
  : Conservative accounting policies, abundant cash flow, FCF of 103.881 billion yuan
• Risk Features
  : Annualized volatility of 30.20%, strong cyclicality, maximum drawdown of -32.85%

• Performance
  : Cumulative increase of 76.76%, annualized return of 15.30%
• Valuation
  : Current P/E 11.79x, P/B 1.20x, ROE 10.42%
• Financial Features
  : Stable cash flow, FCF of 159.762 billion yuan, solid monopoly in communication business
• Risk Features
  : Annualized volatility of 26.06%, maximum drawdown of -18.04%

• Performance
  : Cumulative increase of 82.74%, annualized return of 16.27%
• Valuation
  : Current P/E 6.89x, P/B 0.53x, ROE 8.18%
• Financial Features
  : Extremely undervalued, net profit margin of 19.70%, obvious advantages in banking industry

• Monetary policy enters a “moderately loose” cycle, clear downward trend in market interest rates
• Fiscal policy is “more proactive”, increased infrastructure investment expected to support traditional industries
• First year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, policy dividends will continue to be released

• Institutions generally believe A-shares will shift from structural to full bull market in 2026
• Yingda Securities predicts annual high will most likely exceed 4000 points, higher probability in second half
• Morgan Stanley expects MSCI China Index to reach 90 points in 2026, CSI 300 target at 4840 points

• Increased A-share allocation by insurance funds remains inevitable trend
• Residents’ “deposit搬家” trend continues, incremental funds expected
• Overseas institutions have strong interest in Chinese market, huge foreign capital inflow potential

• Agricultural Bank of China P/B only 0.71x, at historical low
• PetroChina P/B 1.12x, still has repair room
• China Mobile P/B1.20x, has safety margin

• Based on current prices, four major banks’ dividend yield around 5%
• In falling interest rate environment,5% yield highly attractive to long-term funds
• Valuation repair logic: Dividend yield drop from5% to4% (corresponds to25% stock price rise)

1. Macro environment alignment: Economic stabilization, increased policy support
2. Obvious valuation advantages: Current valuations at historical lows, sufficient safety margin
3. Fund allocation demand: High-dividend assets’ allocation value prominent in low-rate environment
4. Strong performance support: Traditional industries’ fundamentals improved, profitability enhanced

1. Cyclical fluctuations: PetroChina-like cyclical stocks greatly affected by commodity prices
2. Growth limitations: Traditional industries have relatively limited growth space
3. Policy dependence: Performance highly dependent on policy environment

• PetroChina 60%: Benefits from stable energy prices and valuation repair
• China Mobile12%: Stable 5G cash flow, guaranteed dividend yield
• COSCO SHIPPING Holdings H12%: Benefits from global recovery and shipping rate rise
• Dividend ETF16%: Diversified allocation to reduce individual stock risk

• First half: Focus on policy implementation and Q1 performance
• Second half: Fed rate cut cycle starts, liquidity easing drives valuation repair

• Build positions in batches, avoid chasing highs
• Monitor macroeconomic data changes
• Adjust position structure timely

High-dividend blue-chip stocks have high probability of replicating Agricultural Bank of China’s 2022-2025 slow-bull market in2026, but note:

1. Return expectations: Annualized return 12-18%, slightly lower than historical performance
2. Volatility management: Petroleum stocks more volatile than banks, need stronger risk tolerance
3. Time window: Valuation repair may accelerate in second half of 2026, need patience

Overall, supported by policy support, valuation repair and fund allocation logics, high-dividend blue-chips expected to achieve steady growth in2026, but investors should set reasonable return expectations and manage risks properly.

[0] Gilin API Data - Stock prices, financial analysis, technical indicators

[1] Securities Times - “China’s Stock Market Will Welcome Another Good Year in2026” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3501111.html)

[2] SPD Bank International - “2026 China Market Strategy Outlook: Demand-Driven Growth” (https://www.spdbi.com/getfile/index/action/images/name/2026年中国市场策略展望：需求引领增长，拥抱新核心资产_浦银国际研究.pdf)

[3] Securities Times - “Luo Zhiheng:2026 China Capital Market Outlook—How to View and Allocate A-shares?” (http://finance.sina.com.cn/zl/china/2025-12-17/zl-inhcaksm2393665.shtml)