In-depth Analysis of Moutai's Structural Reform: Supply-Demand Reshaping and Long-Term Investment Value

• Suspend the distribution of all Moutai products to distributors by December 2025 until resumption on January 1, 2026
• Aims to ease distributors’ year-end capital pressure and prevent panic selling [1]

• Cut Moutai 15-Year quota by 30%
• Cut 1L Feitian Moutai quota by 30%
• Cut Zodiac Moutai quota by 50%
• Completely stop supplying Glazed Treasure Moutai [1]
• Establish price floor: Distributors selling Feitian Moutai below 1650 yuan/bottle will be disqualified [2]

From past product diversification to a core single-product strategy, anchoring three price bands:

• Feitian Moutai: 1500 yuan+ price band
• Moutai 1935: 600 yuan+ price band
• Premium Moutai: 2000 yuan+ price band [2]

Figure: Moutai’s 2025 stock price technical analysis shows that after the reform news was released, the stock price stabilized and volatility decreased

Terminal price recovered from 1490 yuan to 1580 yuan in just 24 hours [2], indicating price elasticity is emerging. By lowering terminal prices, it is expected to:

• Increase real opening rate
• Expand consumer base
• Drive sales growth

1. Inventory pressure hits record high
   : In H1 2025, the industry average inventory turnover days reached 900 days, up 10% YoY [4]
2. Price inversion is widespread
   : 58.1% of distributors have increased inventory, and over half have price inversion issues [4]
3. Weak consumer demand
   : During the 2025 Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, overall liquor demand fell 20%-30% YoY [4]
4. Distributors suffer severe losses
   : Some distributors “lose millions per ton of goods”, facing capital chain breakage risks [5]

• Q3 single-quarter growth rate was less than 1%, and non-standard product inventory pressure is prominent [2]
• Despite maintaining brand advantages, product structure faces adjustment pressure

1. Obvious destocking effect
   : After gradually reducing market supply since June, sales volume has doubled MoM since October, and distributors’ inventory-sales ratio has dropped to a healthy range [2]
2. Channel structure optimization
   : E-commerce revenue accounted for 22%, shortening the supply chain and reducing inventory pressure [2]
3. Price stabilization and recovery
   : Since December, wholesale price has quickly recovered from 1490 yuan to 1580 yuan [2]

1. Short-term revenue pressure
   : Significant cuts in non-standard product quotas may affect 2026 revenue growth
2. Channel relationship adjustment
   : Strict qualification management may exacerbate distributor differentiation
3. Increased market competition
   : Under the background of overall pressure on high-end liquor, the effect of single-brand adjustment is limited

• Outstanding financial stability
  : ROE up to 36.48%, net profit margin 51.51%, current ratio 6.62 [0]
• Abundant cash flow
  : Latest quarterly free cash flow reached 24.43 billion yuan [0]
• Supply scarcity
  : From 2021 to 2024, the compound growth rate of base liquor production was only -0.1%, and there will be no significant supply increase in the next five years [2]

• Current stock price: 1433.10 yuan, P/E ratio:19.96 times, in a relatively reasonable range [0]
• 2025 cumulative stock price decline:8.02%, reflecting market pessimistic expectations [0]
• Technical analysis shows that the stock price has received support around 1400 yuan, and volatility has decreased

Moutai’s structural reform this time is essentially an active layout during the cycle adjustment period of the liquor industry, achieving supply-demand rebalancing through “capacity reduction, destocking, and deleveraging”.

• Short-term
  : Can effectively ease distributors’ capital pressure and prevent the spread of panic selling
• Mid-term
  : Optimize supply structure through product structure adjustment and improve inventory turnover
• Long-term
  : Is expected to establish a healthier channel ecosystem and price system

1. Positive Factors
   :
   • Strengthen brand moat and consolidate high-end positioning
   • Improve channel efficiency and reduce intermediate costs
   • Lay the foundation for a new round of growth cycle

2. Concerns
   :
   • 2026 performance growth may slow temporarily
   • The sustainability of reform effects remains to be observed
   • There is uncertainty in the overall recovery rhythm of the industry

Based on Moutai’s strong fundamentals, industry leading position, and current relatively reasonable valuation level, it is recommended that long-term investors pay attention to the progress effect of its structural reform. Against the background of the liquor industry being in the adjustment period, Moutai, relying on its brand advantages and active reform, is expected to take the lead in recovery and create stable returns for long-term investors.

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[0] Gilin API Data
[1] China Economic Net - "Big Price Increase! ‘Price Raised 4 Times in One Day! What Happened?’ (http://m.ce.cn/yidong/202512/t20251215_2643261.shtml)
[2] China Interview Network - “From 1490 yuan to1580 yuan in just24 hours! Has Moutai’s stock suspension and price control taken effect?” (https://www.wenshannet.com/company/169638.html)
[3] JRJ.com - “Moutai may introduce volume control measures! Weekend wholesale prices continue to rise” (https://m.jrj.com.cn/madapter/stock/2025/12/14142454690741.shtml)
[4] 36Kr - “Fell below1499 yuan, even Moutai can’t be sold” (https://m.36kr.com/p/3585007030434953)
[5] Caifuhao - “Lose millions per ton of goods, liquor distributors ‘bleed’ through the winter” (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20251204102348621077870)
[6] People’s Daily Online - “Liquor leading enterprise takes the lead in launching ‘price stabilization battle’” (http://finance.people.com.cn/n1/2025/1216/c1004-40625305.html)