Analysis of Structural Investment Opportunities Amid Sino-US Monetary Policy Divergence in 2026

China’s 2026 monetary policy is positioned as “continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy”, focusing on two characteristics [1]:

• Aggregate level
  : May continue to cut interest rates and reserve requirement ratios, but in a phased manner to avoid “flood-like” stimulus
• Structural level
  : Optimize structural monetary policy tools, featuring “increased volume and reduced prices”, to guide funds to key areas such as technological innovation, manufacturing upgrading, and green development

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates only once in 2026, with the median forecast for the federal funds rate at 3.4% [1]. Policy operations will follow the “tapering principle” and be “discretionary” based on changes in economic fundamentals.

• Eurozone
  : No rate cuts expected; probability of rate hikes by year-end rises to 50%
• Japan
  : Has sent clear signals of considering rate hikes
• Other economies
  : OECD expects limited room for further rate cuts in major global economies, with the rate-cut cycle ending by late 2026 [1]

The commodity market will continue its divergence trend in 2026, with the core logic being “structural divergence in economic growth leads to divergence in commodity prices” [2]:

• Strategic and scarce
• Closer to industries with strong growth momentum
• Supply-side vulnerability

• Supply side
  : Accidents at major mines in the DRC, Chile, Indonesia, etc., lead to reduced supply [3]
• Demand side
  : Coordinated monetary and fiscal easing in China and the US provides macro catalysis
• Investment logic
  : Supply shortage combined with policy easing drives copper prices upward

• Upstream oil and gas investment intensity has been declining for nearly a decade
• The depletion cycle of global mature oil fields may start from 2024-25
• Production growth curve of offshore projects is flat; North American shale oil faces cost challenges [3]

• Performs prominently amid policy divergence and geopolitical uncertainty
• Bank of America expects commodities to be the best “strike while the iron is hot” trading choice in 2026 [4]

The focus of AI investment is shifting from basic model breakthroughs to application-driven innovation [5]:

• AI computing infrastructure: 1.6T optical modules, liquid cooling, CPO/LPO new technologies
• AI application implementation: content creation tools, e-commerce recommendations, user interaction enhancement
• Domestic substitution: domestic GPU chips, super node platform construction

• The communication index rose by 64.67% in 2025, outperforming the market and ranking second among Shenwan industries [6]
• PE-TTM is 24.6x, still undervalued within TMT
• In 2026, it is expected to show a situation where “the more it rises, the lower the valuation”

• Chinese concept stocks like Tencent have huge room for valuation repair; Tencent’s current P/E is only 24.65x [0]
• Marginal improvement in policy environment, reduced regulatory uncertainty
• AI technology empowerment brings a new growth curve

• Domestic computing power demand increases; chip self-reliance is imperative
• Huawei, ZTE, Inspur, etc., launch super node platforms
• Edge computing and terminal intelligence bring new opportunities

• First half
  : Focus on opportunities from policy expectation gaps
• Second half
  : Focus on physical assets and anti-inflation assets

• Developed markets
  : US tech stocks, energy stocks
• Emerging markets
  : China TMT, resource stocks

• Copper: Supply shortage + new energy demand
• Crude oil: Supply cycle inflection point + geopolitical premium
• Gold: Dual attributes of safe-haven + anti-inflation

• AI infrastructure: Optical modules, servers, liquid cooling
• AI applications: Software, content creation, platform economy
• Domestic substitution: Semiconductors, communication equipment

• Utilities: Benefit from AI power demand growth
• Consumer staples: Stabilizer during economic transition

1. Policy unexpected risk
   : Sino-US policy rhythm and intensity may exceed expectations
2. Geopolitical risk
   : Trade frictions and geopolitical conflicts intensify
3. Liquidity risk
   : Policy divergence leads to increased capital flows
4. Technology breakthrough risk
   : AI technology development path may exceed expectations

• Geographical diversification
  : Balanced allocation between China and US markets
• Asset diversification
  : Diversification across stocks, bonds, commodities, foreign exchange
• Time diversification
  : Dollar-cost averaging to smooth volatility
• Hedging tools
  : Appropriate use of derivatives to hedge risks

Sino-US monetary policy divergence in 2026 will create significant structural investment opportunities:

: Under the cost curve analysis framework, focus on varieties with rigid supply and benefiting from energy transition; copper, crude oil, and gold are expected to perform well.

: AI industry chain shifts from infrastructure to application implementation; focus on three main lines: computing infrastructure, domestic substitution, and AI applications.

: Use the time and space gaps created by policy divergence to achieve optimized cross-asset and cross-market allocation.

Under the policy tone of “seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency”, investment in 2026 needs to pay more attention to grasping structural opportunities; selecting the right tracks and individual stocks will be the key to success.

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[1] Jinling API Data - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) real-time stock price, financial indicators and market data
[2] The Paper - “China Continues to Be the Global Economy’s ‘Stabilizer’” (https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32185763)
[3] CICC Research - “CICC 2026 Outlook | Global Research: From Tariff Game to AI Wave” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockzmt/2025-11-19/doc-infxwvhk3356471.shtml)
[4] Investing.com - “BofA Outlook 2026 ‘Best Hot Trade’: Commodity Bull Market Will Continue!” (https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-3116199)
[5] QQ News - “Which AI Index Can Represent Future Investment Directions?” (https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20251209A081C500)
[6] Zhongtai Securities - “2026 Communication Strategy: AI Stronger Players Remain Strong, Satellite Inflection Point Arrived” (https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-3128659)
[7] Jinling API Data - S&P 500, Nasdaq and other market index performance data
[8] Jinling API Data - Apple Inc. (AAPL) financial analysis and industry data
[9] Sina Finance - “[Commodity Strategy Annual Report] Amid Changes, Divergence Continues” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/future/fmnews/2025-12-16/doc-inhaxvcp1679479.shtml)