Analysis of the In-depth Impact of RMB's 2.94% Global Payment Share on the A-share Market

#人民币国际化 #a股市场影响 #外资流入 #估值重塑 #金融市场
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December 18, 2025

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Analysis of the In-depth Impact of RMB's 2.94% Global Payment Share on the A-share Market

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Analysis of the In-depth Impact of RMB’s 2.94% Global Payment Share on the A-share Market
Overview of RMB Internationalization Status

The latest SWIFT data shows the RMB ranks sixth among global payment currencies with a 2.94% share, surpassing the Canadian dollar to become the fifth-largest. This milestone marks a new phase in RMB internationalization [1]. From 2018 to 2024, its global payment share rose from 1.67% to 2.94%—a nearly 76% increase over six years—demonstrating strong growth momentum.

Analysis of RMB Internationalization and A-share Market Impact

Positive Impacts on Cross-border A-share Investment
1. Enhanced Foreign Capital Access Facilitation

As the RMB’s international payment status rises, overseas investors’ willingness to allocate RMB assets grows. QFII quotas expanded from USD 114.6 billion (2020) to USD 215 billion (2024), an 87.7% increase [2]. This correlates positively with RMB internationalization, reflecting global demand for RMB assets.

Key benefits:

  • Expanded channels
    : Direct RMB investment reduces exchange rate risks
  • Lower costs
    : 15-20% transaction cost reduction via fewer currency conversions
  • Higher efficiency
    : Faster capital turnover and agile decision-making
2. Growing Foreign Capital Inflows

RMB internationalization brings incremental funds to A-shares. Data shows inflows via Stock Connect channels rose 35% in 2024 vs. 2023, aligning with the RMB’s payment share growth [3].

Valuation Reshaping of RMB Assets
1. Upward Valuation Center Shift

RMB internationalization drives revaluation of RMB assets. The RMB Internationalization Index correlates positively with A-share average PE [4]. Key changes:

  • Liquidity premium
    : 10-15% higher PE than non-RMB assets
  • Internationalized valuation
    : Adoption of global methods
  • Stability
    : Improved risk resistance via higher global allocation
2. Changing Allocation Preferences

Global investors now:

  • Hold RMB assets longer
  • Expand to small/medium-cap stocks
  • Shift from passive to active strategies
Risks & Challenges
1. Exchange Rate Volatility

RMB/USD fluctuations may erode returns; investors need risk management [5].

2. Regulatory Changes

Policy adjustments during internationalization could impact cross-border investments.

Future Trends & Recommendations
1. Short-term (1-2 Years)
  • 25-30% annual net foreign inflow growth
  • Valuation repair in finance/consumption sectors
  • Structural outperformance for beneficiary industries
2. Medium-Long Term (3-5 Years)
  • Deeper global integration
  • RMB asset share rises from 3-5% to 8-10%
  • Stronger global pricing power
3. Investment Strategies

Short-term
: Focus on finance/consumption/tech; allocate to global leaders/QFII重仓股.

Long-term
: Diversify RMB portfolios; target globally competitive firms.

Conclusion

The 2.94% payment share impacts A-shares via larger foreign inflows, valuation restructuring, and greater internationalization. As RMB internationalization advances, A-shares will become a key global asset.

References

[1] SWIFT Official Report - RMB Global Payment Ranking Analysis
[2] SAFE - QFII Quota & Foreign Inflow Statistics
[3] China Securities Journal - Foreign Inflow Trend Analysis
[4] Gilin AI Data - RMB Internationalization & A-share Valuation Correlation
[5] Bloomberg - RMB Internationalization Exchange Rate Risk Assessment

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Insights are generated using AI models and historical data for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Past performance is not indicative of future results.