November 2025 CPI Report: Post-Shutdown Release and Market Impact Analysis

This analysis is based on the CNBC report [1] announcing the November 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) release—the first inflation report following the 43-day U.S. government shutdown that ended in mid-November. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will omit 1-month percent changes for November 2025 due to missing October CPI data (canceled during the shutdown) [1]. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect a 3.1% year-over-year (YoY) headline inflation rate for November, up slightly from the 3.0% YoY recorded in September 2025 (the last complete CPI report) [1]. Preceding the release, U.S. stocks declined on December 17 amid inflation uncertainty: the S&P 500 fell -1.20%, the NASDAQ Composite (tech-heavy) dropped -1.91%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased -0.59% [0]. Sector performance reflected a defensive rotation: Consumer Defensive (+0.36%) and Energy (+0.22%) (safe-haven assets) outperformed rate-sensitive sectors like Utilities (-5.43%), Technology (-2.27%), and Consumer Cyclical (-2.21%) [0]. Overnight futures on December 17 showed modest gains (S&P 500 +0.1%, NASDAQ 100 +0.2%), indicating cautious optimism as investors awaited the inflation data [1].

1. Defensive sector rotation on December 17 underscores investor risk aversion ahead of the truncated CPI report, as market participants prioritize assets less sensitive to inflation and interest rate fluctuations.
2. The shutdown-related data gap (missing October data) reduces the CPI report’s comprehensiveness, creating ambiguity for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming December policy meeting, where rate projections for 2026 will be a key focus.
3. The NASDAQ Composite’s larger decline (-1.91%) is linked to tech sector weakness, compounded by inflation concerns that could delay rate cuts if the CPI reading exceeds expectations.

• Risks
  : A CPI reading significantly deviating from the 3.1% forecast could trigger sharp volatility in rate-sensitive sectors (Technology, Utilities, Real Estate) [1]. The Federal Reserve may issue ambiguous guidance due to the incomplete inflation data, increasing market uncertainty [1]. Tech sector underperformance (exacerbated by declines in chipmakers like Broadcom [1]) could weigh on the broader market if inflation data is unfavorable.
• Opportunities
  : Defensive sectors (Consumer Defensive, Energy) may continue to attract investor capital amid lingering inflation and policy uncertainty. Cautious optimism in overnight futures suggests potential short-term market stabilization if the CPI reading aligns with expectations.

The November 2025 CPI report will be released on December 18 with truncated data (missing 1-month changes) due to the U.S. government shutdown. Pre-release market activity on December 17 showed a decline in major indices with defensive sector outperformance. Economists expect 3.1% YoY headline inflation, and the report’s incompleteness could impact Federal Reserve policy decisions. Investors should note the data limitations and monitor the Fed’s post-meeting statement for clarification on 2026 rate projections. No investment recommendations are made.