Analysis of TUNiu (TOUR) New Year’s Travel Search Heat Growth & Business Impact

Based on a comprehensive analysis of TUNiu Tourism Network (TOUR), I will provide an in-depth analysis of the deep meaning behind the growth in New Year travel search heat and its impact on the company’s value and investor confidence.

According to the latest market data, the over 50% month-on-month growth in search and consultation heat for TUNiu’s New Year travel-related products is not an isolated phenomenon, but a microcosm of the strong recovery of the entire tourism market [1][2]. Data from LY.com shows that in the past month, the search heat for keywords such as ‘New Year’ and ‘New Year’s Day’ has increased by more than 280% month-on-month, and in December, the overall booking heat has increased by nearly 30% compared with the same period last year [1].

TUNiu data shows that among New Year’s Day holiday travelers, ‘post-80s’ and ‘post-90s’ parent-child families as well as ‘post-00s’ young tourists pay more attention to the ritual and atmosphere of the New Year, accounting for more than 80% of the total number of New Year travel users [1]. This indicates that TUNiu is accurately grasping the demand changes of young consumer groups.

From the latest financial data, TUNiu achieved a 9% annual revenue growth in the third quarter of 2025, reaching RMB 202.1 million [0]. Core package tour product revenue increased by 12% year-on-year, accounting for 89% of total revenue [0]. The company has achieved profitability on both GAAP and non-GAAP bases for multiple consecutive quarters, indicating that profitability is improving.

TUNiu has made strategic adjustments on the product side, launching differentiated products for different customer groups:

• For experienced travelers: launched niche destination products
• Long-distance island product transactions increased several times year-on-year [0]
• New selected outbound travel product transactions increased by more than 100% year-on-year [0]
• Self-driving tour products have covered all provinces in the country, with transaction volume increasing 5 times year-on-year during the National Day holiday [0]

TUNiu’s current stock price is $0.66, with a market capitalization of only $25.45 million [0], and a price-to-book ratio of only 0.17 times, which is at an extremely low level in the industry. However, the DCF valuation model shows that the company faces challenges, with fair values in all three scenarios being negative [0], which mainly reflects the market’s concerns about the company’s long-term profitability.

From the stock price performance, TUNiu’s stock has fallen 34.52% this year and 29.65% in the past three months [0]. The stock price trades below all key moving averages: the 20-day moving average is $0.73, the 50-day moving average is $0.79, and the 200-day moving average is $0.88 [0], indicating that it still faces downward pressure in the short term.

The surge in New Year travel search heat verifies TUNiu’s ability to grasp seasonal demand. The company’s management mentioned in the Q3 earnings call: ‘Although the industry usually enters the off-season in the fourth quarter, we continue to see active demand in off-season travel, ice and snow travel and other segments’ [0]. The strong performance of New Year travel exactly confirms this judgment.

TUNiu’s diversified layout in sales channels has begun to show results:

• Live streaming channel transaction volume and core sales volume continued to achieve double-digit year-on-year growth [0]
• Offline store transaction volume increased by nearly 20% year-on-year [0]
• Corporate customer transaction volume also achieved double-digit year-on-year growth [0]

1. Financial Risk
   : The company’s EBITDA margin is -73.8% and net profit margin is -86.4% [0], and profitability still needs to be improved
2. Market Risk
   : The tourism industry is highly competitive, and price wars between OTA platforms may continue
3. Debt Risk
   : Although currently classified as low risk, the WACC is as high as 15.3% [0], and the cost of capital is high

1. Policy Benefits
   : China’s tourism industry has increased policy support, and the inbound and outbound tourism markets continue to open up
2. Consumption Upgrade
   : Young consumers have higher requirements for tourism quality and experience, which is beneficial to the development of high-end products
3. Technology Empowerment
   : The company’s investment in dynamic packaging technology and AI applications is expected to improve operational efficiency

The over 50% month-on-month growth in New Year travel search heat does reflect positive signals of TUNiu’s fundamental improvement. This growth not only reflects the overall recovery trend of the tourism industry, but more importantly, verifies the effectiveness of TUNiu’s strategies in product innovation, channel expansion and customer group segmentation.

Although the short-term stock price performance is under pressure, considering that the company has achieved continuous profitability, product structure continues to be optimized, and sales channel diversification has achieved significant results, TUNiu has the foundation for fundamental improvement. However, valuation repair requires the company to continue to prove its sustainable profitability, especially in terms of operational efficiency improvement and cost control.

Currently, analysts give a 100% buy rating [0], showing that professional investment institutions are optimistic about the company’s long-term prospects. However, the full reconstruction of investor confidence requires the company to:

1. Continue to achieve quarterly profitability
2. Improve operational efficiency and gross profit margin
3. Maintain competitive advantages in key growth areas such as outbound travel and self-driving travel

Overall, the growth in TUNiu’s New Year travel search heat is a positive signal, but converting it into sustainable valuation improvement and enhanced investor confidence still requires the company to make more substantial breakthroughs in financial performance and operational efficiency.

[0] Jinling API Data
[1] The Paper - “New Year’s Day Travel Booking Launches: Hotel Orders in Multiple Popular Cities Increase by 3x Year-on-Year” (https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32162432)
[2] Yicai - “Post-00s Book Villas for New Year, Concerts Drive Nanning Hotel Bookings Up 17x Year-on-Year” (https://www.yicai.com/news/102958469.html)