Analysis of Moutai Price-Urban Income Ratio and Kweichow Moutai's Long-Term Investment Value

To evaluate whether the historical pattern of the “Moutai Price-Urban Resident Income Ratio” can be used to infer Kweichow Moutai’s long-term investment value, a complete set of historical data and multi-dimensional analysis is required:

1. Data Preparation
   • Moutai Retail Price
     : Based on the market retail price of Feitian Moutai 500ml, collect the average transaction/retail price for each year (or higher frequency) from 2001 to 2024. Try to exclude high premiums from abnormal channels (e.g., secondary market) for comparison, and prefer official guidance prices or dealer selling prices.
   • Average Urban Resident Wage
     : Use the time series (1978-2024) of average wages of employees in urban units (or per capita disposable income of urban residents) released by the National Bureau of Statistics. Ensure it is a nominal value and retain the同期 CPI (Consumer Price Index) for later conversion to real wages.
   • Aggregation and Alignment
     : Unify the two sequences to the same time unit (e.g., end of year) and adjust to the same price level using CPI to obtain the price ratio under real purchasing power.

2. Statistical Characteristics of Historical Ratios
   • Calculate the ratio of Moutai price to average urban wage to verify whether the statement “stably staying in the range of 1/3~1/2” holds true, and observe the trend of the ratio (stable, rising, falling, cyclical).
   • Use trend lines or rolling averages to analyze its long-term evolution (e.g., 5-year moving average) and determine whether it shows convergence, drift, or structural breakthroughs.
   • Check the correlation between the ratio and macro variables (GDP growth rate, CPI, per capita disposable income growth rate of residents) to determine whether this pricing logic depends on overall income growth or brand scarcity.

3. Impact Mechanism on Kweichow Moutai’s Long-Term Value
   • Brand Pricing Power
     : If the price remains in the high-end range of average wages (1/3~1/2) for a long time, it indicates that the brand has strong bargaining power and can increase prices in sync with income growth, thereby boosting per-bottle profitability.
   • Consumption Elasticity and High-End Market Capacity
     : During the period of rising average wages, if the wine price keeps up with wage growth and demand remains relatively rigid, it can be regarded as the “floor rigidity” of high-end luxury goods, which helps support high profit margins and cash flow; conversely, if it exceeds affordability, it will be suppressed.
   • Profit Growth Sustainability
     : Driven by both sales volume (channels) and price, analyze if the price/income ratio remains within a reasonable range (dependent on income growth), which means income elasticity <1 (controllable), more conducive to long-term cash flow forecasting and valuation models (e.g., FCF).
   • New Cycle Risks
     : If the ratio breaks through the historical range, it is necessary to combine macro adjustments (e.g., rapid income growth, strengthened anti-corruption policies, changes in openness) to determine whether it has entered a new supply-demand equilibrium, thereby affecting Moutai’s future performance elasticity.

4. Suggested Analysis Steps
   • Construct a “price/wage ratio” chart (including CPI calibration), use regression or cointegration to detect its long-term equilibrium relationship with income; if there is a stable range, the interval width can be used to estimate the adjustable range of future selling prices.
   • Overlay this ratio data with Kweichow Moutai’s operating indicators such as gross profit margin, sales volume, and channel inventory to extract the transmission mechanism between price strategy and profitability.
   • Combine the valuation multiples of Moutai in the A-share market, DCF intrinsic value, and current stock price comparison to determine whether the current market has fully reflected the sustainability of this pricing logic.

• Currently, I cannot directly access the complete historical data of “2001-2024 Moutai prices” and “1978-2024 average urban wages”, so I cannot provide specific numerical comparison charts or statistical indicators.
• If you can provide the above two time series (or clear data sources, such as the retail price indicators in the National Bureau of Statistics or Moutai’s annual reports), I can further perform ratio calculations, trend analysis, and display the trend logic with graphs.
• At the same time, it is recommended to retrieve available official channel data (such as the National Bureau of Statistics database, Kweichow Moutai pricing announcements, and Ministry of Commerce wholesale prices) when enabling the
  Deep Investment Research Mode
  to obtain the required historical benchmarks and assist in subsequent regression/cointegration analysis. This mode can also obtain more detailed financial/sales/channel segmentation data of Moutai, which helps to improve the quantitative logic between the “price-income ratio” and “operating performance”.

1. Stable Range of Long-Term Price-Income Ratio
   : If the ratio of Moutai price to urban wage mainly stayed in the range of 1/3～1/2 from 2001 to 2024, it indicates that Moutai has always followed income growth in price setting, and has the opportunity to maintain its high-end consumption positioning without touching the irrational bubble zone.
2. Impact on Investment Value
   : This pricing logic forms a positive feedback chain of “price increase means income increase” for Kweichow Moutai, enhancing its valuation support (high gross profit, high cash flow). However, it is necessary to monitor whether factors such as income growth rate (if slowing down), channel inventory, and policy constraints will break this ratio range.
3. Risk Reminder
   : If the ratio deviates for a long time without income support, it indicates that the price may be out of affordability, which may have a negative impact on sales volume; if wage growth is lower than price increase, it means purchasing power declines, and Moutai needs to rely on consumption upgrading or overseas markets to fill the gap.

1. Obtain and organize two sets of historical data
   (official price/wage).
2. Construct a ratio time series
   and test the steady-state range (using statistical methods such as regression/DFA).
3. Combine financial conditions
   (income structure, channels, gross profit margin) to test the transmission of price strategy to profitability.
4. If needed, enable the Deep Investment Research Mode
   to obtain more detailed macro and industry data, and assist in establishing more refined long-term DCF valuation or scenario analysis.

If you can provide data or authorize deeper data access, I can simultaneously output specific ratio charts, trend analysis, and conclusions for investors.