In-depth Analysis of A-share Blue Chip Investment Opportunities in 2026

Based on the expectation of the Shanghai Composite Index ranging from 3500 to 4000 points in 2026, your investment strategy focusing on

has sufficient logical support. The current allocation is constructed with PetroChina (60%), China Mobile (12%), COSCO SHIPPING Holdings H (12%), and 520 ETF (16%). It gains returns through the mechanism where , which has significant advantages in a moderately rising market.

:

• Valuation Level
  : P/E 11.10x, P/B 1.14x, at historical low [0]
• Profitability
  : ROE 10.45%, net profit margin 5.65%, stable cash flow [0]
• Financial Health
  : Conservative accounting strategy, FCF reaching 103.881 billion yuan [0]
• Technical Form
  : Current price 9.71 yuan, 50-day moving average 9.46 yuan, 200-day moving average 8.65 yuan, in a medium-term uptrend channel [0]

:

• DCF valuation shows a target price of 92.94 yuan in the base scenario, currently significantly undervalued [0]
• Under the dividend yield strategy, when the yield drops from 5% to 3.5%, the target price is about 13.87 yuan, with a potential increase of 42.86%
• Stabilization of energy prices and national reserve demand provide support [2]

:

• Valuation Advantage
  : P/E 11.67x, P/B 1.19x, valuation in a reasonable range [0]
• Profit Quality
  : ROE 10.42%, net profit margin 13.72%, outstanding profitability [0]
• Strong Cash Flow
  : FCF reaching 159.762 billion yuan, sufficient dividend-paying capacity [0]
• Defensive Attribute
  : The rigid demand nature of communication services leads to relatively stable performance in volatile markets

:

• DCF base scenario target price 867.43 yuan, long-term value undervalued [0]
• Under the dividend yield strategy, when the yield drops from 4.5% to 3.0%, the target price is about 152.85 yuan, potential increase of 50.0%
• Expected improvement in operational efficiency and dividend growth after the completion of 5G construction

:

• Low Valuation
  : P/E only 6.26x, P/B 1.03x, close to breaking net asset value [0]
• High Profitability
  : ROE 16.14%, net profit margin 16.78%, leading profit efficiency [0]
• Financial Stability
  : Low risk rating, sufficient liquidity [0]
• Cycle Reversal
  : Current price 15.37 yuan, in the cycle bottom area

:

• DCF base scenario target price 108.77 yuan, significant upside potential [0]
• Under the dividend yield strategy, when the yield drops from 5.5% to 3.5%, target price about 24.15 yuan, potential increase of 57.14%
• Cyclical opportunities brought by the improvement of global shipping supply and demand pattern

:

• Blue chips usually outperform the index in moderately rising markets
• High-dividend strategy provides a safety margin in volatile markets
• Low valuation provides a buffer for long-term investment

:

• Base scenario (3750 points): Expected return around 15%
• Optimistic scenario (4300 points): Expected return up to 35%
• Pessimistic scenario (3200 points): Loss controlled within 5%

Your current 60-12-12-16 allocation reflects the idea of

:

:

• 60% weight in PetroChina fully seizes opportunities in the energy sector
• Low industry correlation between targets plays a role in risk diversification
• ETF allocation provides additional diversification effect

:

• May consider moderately increasing the weight of COSCO SHIPPING Holdings to seize cyclical opportunities
• 520 ETF can be adjusted to a broad-based index to enhance market representativeness

1. Dividend Yield Reduction Mechanism
   : Stock price rise drives dividend yield to naturally drop to a reasonable level
2. Valuation Repair
   : Currently undervalued blue chips have significant repair space
3. Macro Environment
   : Moderate inflation and economic recovery are beneficial to the performance of blue chips

1. Concentration Risk
   : 60% weight in PetroChina is relatively high, requiring close monitoring
2. Cycle Risk
   : COSCO SHIPPING Holdings is greatly affected by the global economic cycle
3. Policy Risk
   : The energy industry is significantly affected by policy regulation

• Hold as Main
  : Current allocation is in line with the market environment; avoid frequent adjustments
• Add Positions on Dips
  : Focus on adding positions in China Mobile and COSCO SHIPPING Holdings when the market pulls back
• Profit-Taking Strategy
  : Moderately reduce positions after individual stocks reach the dividend yield target

• Dynamic Balance
  : Adjust weights according to market changes to maintain portfolio balance
• Profit Locking
  : Gradually lock in part of the profits after reaching the expected return
• Variety Rotation
  : Pay attention to rotation opportunities of other undervalued high-dividend blue chips

• Dividend Yield Changes
  : Closely monitor changes in dividend policies of each target
• Valuation Level
  : Be cautious when P/B and P/E rise to historical median levels
• Fundamental Trend
  : Pay attention to changes in profitability and cash flow quality

Under the expectation of A-share index ranging from 3500 to 4000 points in 2026, your chosen undervalued high-dividend blue chip strategy has a

. The three targets of PetroChina, China Mobile, and COSCO SHIPPING Holdings all have the characteristics of , which are in line with the investment logic of the structural slow bull market. Through the mechanism where the dividend yield drops from around 5% to 3-4%, it is expected to obtain a price gain of 40-57%, and together with dividend income, the overall expected return is considerable.

[0] Jinling API Data - Stock Fundamentals, Technical Analysis, DCF Valuation
[1] Bloomberg - “China’s Market Revival Hinges on Gloomy Economy Turning Corner” (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-16/china-s-market-revival-hinges-on-gloomy-economy-turning-corner)
[2] Bloomberg - “China Oil Stockpiling Masks Outlook for Slowing Demand Growth” (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-11/china-oil-stockpiling-masks-outlook-for-slowing-demand-growth)
[3] Bloomberg - “China’s Oil Demand Seen Sluggish Until Mid-2026, Hengli Says” (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-03/china-oil-demand-to-remain-sluggish-until-mid-2026-hengli-says)