Moutai (600519) Stock Price and Valuation Analysis

As of December 18, 2025, Moutai’s stock price closed at 1431 yuan, down about 14% from its 2025 52-week high of 1657.99 yuan, close to its 52-week low of 1383.18 yuan, and currently fluctuates within the year’s consolidation range [0]. Technical indicators show a ‘sideways consolidation with no clear trend’; the MACD has not crossed but is bullish-leaning, KDJ is in a relatively strong area, but RSI is in the normal range, and in the short term, it is constrained by the 1422-1439 range’s support/resistance [0]. The company’s 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages all hover in the 1432-1483 range, meaning the price has not yet escaped medium- to long-term moving average pressure [0], so attention should be paid to the risk of volatility aligned with macroeconomic rhythms.

Illustration: Daily K-line chart from early 2024 to December 18, 2025. X-axis: Date; Y-axis: Stock price (yuan). It can be seen that after the stock price fell from the mid-year high, it consolidated sideways in the range, and trading volume gradually stabilized. Data source: Jinling AI Securities API.

Historical data shows that Moutai’s liquor price has long fluctuated in the range of 1/3 to 1/2 of the monthly average wage of urban private sector employees, and currently has fallen back to the 25%-38% range. This ratio essentially reflects the purchasing power threshold of ‘social currency’ and the affordability of consumers; however, using it directly as a decisive indicator for stock valuation has two problems:

1. Unbalanced Equity Returns and Expectations
   : The liquor price/wage ratio indicates the price elasticity of the consumer side, but it may not match the cost of capital, profit margin, and reinvestment efficiency; Moutai’s current P/E ratio is 19.9x, P/B ratio is 6.97x, EV/OCF is 20.3x, and its valuation already includes high growth expectations. In the same period, ROE is as high as 36.5% and net profit margin exceeds 50% [0], meaning the market has given a high premium to its consumer attributes.
2. Financial and Policy/Supply-Side Uncertainties
   : High prices are often affected by policies such as channel control, price limits, and production capacity, and these factors may not adjust synchronously with wages in the same proportion; in addition, the company’s ‘aggressive’ financial attitude (high profits, low depreciation/CapEx) means profits are back-loaded, so judging valuation solely from the consumer side may ignore supply-side and policy risks [0].

Therefore, although the liquor price/wage ratio provides an ‘emotional’ anchor on the consumer side, it cannot be used as an independent valuation criterion. It should be judged together with fundamental factors such as ROE, free cash flow, net profit, and market premium levels.

Strong fundamentals: In 2024, gross margin and net profit margin remained high, ROE reached 36.5%, and free cash flow remained abundant; liquidity indicators and solvency are still excellent in the industry [0]. However, the current valuation is still high (TTM P/E ≈19.9x), and if future growth slows or policies become stricter, there is still room for stock price retracement. Against the background that the current price has fallen back to the historical low range, it can be understood as an ‘opportunity for volatility of high-quality assets’, but attention should be paid to:

• Confirm the profit growth path
  : Whether it can continue to maintain high unit prices and high profits, especially when policies/regulations are loosened;
• Macroeconomic risks
  : If the consumer side is affected by income expectations or credit pressure, the demand elasticity of Moutai as a high-end consumer product may be amplified;
• Valuation premium regression risk
  : If the market re-evaluates high-valued assets, the stock price may fall further to a level closer to book value.

The current price drop has indeed brought the ‘liquor price/wage ratio’ to a historical low, but since the stock price is still in a high valuation range, it is recommended:

1. Multi-factor verification
   : Combine quarterly performance reports, production capacity/channel policies, dividends, and cash return rates to confirm the sustainability of growth and profitability;
2. Pay attention to policies and channels
   : Keep track of Moutai’s price control policies, production planning, and marketing channel strategies;
3. Timing entry
   : If future financial reports confirm continued growth and improved liquidity, you can consider buying on dips after breaking below the key support (about 1422 yuan); otherwise, maintain a wait-and-see attitude.
4. It is recommended to enable the deep research mode
   to obtain more professional data (such as channel inventory, regional retail prices, recent monthly production and sales data) to verify the stable corresponding relationship between the ‘liquor price/wage ratio’ and performance.

[0] Jinling AI Data