Analysis of Supply Chain Bottlenecks Amid Surging Power Demand in North American Data Centers

Power demand in North American data centers is experiencing explosive growth. It is estimated that global data center power demand will reach 945 TWh by 2030, accounting for nearly 3% of global electricity consumption, which is more than double the 2024 level [2]. OpenAI alone plans to deploy computing centers by 2033 with new loads exceeding a quarter of the current maximum electricity load in the U.S. [2]. Against this backdrop, natural gas power plants have become the default choice to fill the power gap, but supply chain bottlenecks are severely restricting the growth space of related equipment manufacturers.

The global gas turbine market is highly concentrated. Three giants—GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Power—together account for approximately two-thirds of the world’s under-construction gas turbines, with capacity utilization reaching 90% [1]. Market data shows that the global market shares of these three companies are 35%, 26%, and 16% respectively, forming a clear oligopoly pattern [6].

Gas turbine delivery cycles have extended to 243 weeks (about 5 years), a figure reflecting the extreme tension in the supply chain [1][2]. The main reasons for this situation include:

1. Upstream component shortages
   : Gas turbine blades account for 35% of components with a gross margin of over 40%, but suppliers like Howmet and PCC have limited production capacity [6]
2. Shortage of skilled workers
   : Large forgings and castings require skilled workers, leading to slow capacity expansion [3]
3. Huge capital investment
   : GE Vernova plans to invest 160 million USD to expand its Greenville, South Carolina factory, increasing annual output from 50 units to 70-80 units [1][6]

• GE Vernova
  : Delivery slots for 2026 and 2027 are basically sold out, with turbine order backlogs approaching 30 GW and another 20 GW of reservation agreements [1]
• Siemens Energy
  : August reports show that global order total reached a record 136 billion euros, of which about 60% of 2025 gas turbine orders are related to data centers [1]
• Mitsubishi Power
  : The forecast for U.S. large gas turbines over the next decade has almost doubled in one year [1]

To cope with surging demand, all three companies have announced plans to increase production by 25% to 35% annually starting from 2026 [1].

Transformer delivery cycles have exceeded 128 weeks, with delivery cycles for 345 kV substations reaching 128 weeks and a shortage of 200,000 power transmission and distribution engineers [2]. The average delivery cycle for main grid power transformers has increased from 50 weeks in 2021 to around 140 weeks in Q2 2024, and some large transformers even have delivery cycles of over 260 weeks [8].

Since January 2020, prices of power equipment such as transformers and switches have risen rapidly and remained high:

• Main grid power transformers have increased by over 80% compared to January 2020
• Boost transformers, distribution transformers, and medium-voltage switchgear have all seen increases of over 40% [8]

Large transformers have high customization and complexity characteristics, with a limited number of high-end manufacturers, low production automation levels, coupled with long supply chains and huge capital investments. Overseas leading manufacturers have weak willingness to expand production and slow pace [8].

as a market leader,展现出强劲的增长潜力：

• The company’s gas turbine capacity is sold out until 2028, with only 10% of production quotas remaining for 2029
• 2024 gas turbine new orders reached 20.2 GW, a year-on-year increase of 113%
• Management raised its 2028 revenue outlook from 45 billion USD to 52 billion USD, and the profit margin target for the Power & Electrification division was raised to 22%
• Current market capitalization is 308.2 billion USD, P/E ratio is 38.67x, ROE is 42.13%, and the market has fully reflected its growth prospects [0][1]

同样受益于数据中心热潮：

• 2024 fiscal year gas service business new orders reached 16.365 billion euros, a year-on-year increase of 26.89%
• Leading in the European market, 60% of gas turbine orders come from data center projects [1][6]

entered the North American market through a differentiated strategy:

• Recently signed a sales contract for data center generator sets in North America with an amount exceeding 100 million USD
• Strengthened core component supply stability through cooperation with Baker Hughes and Siemens Energy
• Outstanding annual stock performance: 1-year increase of 105.56%, market capitalization of 70.72 billion USD, P/E ratio of 25.21x
• Comprehensive layout in SMR power supply, gas turbine rapid power supply, data center power distribution and other fields [5][6]

Although the three giants are actively expanding production, capacity expansion takes 3-5 years and cannot meet the rapidly growing demand in the short term [6]. This means that even with sufficient orders, actual performance release will be constrained by capacity.

Upstream raw material price fluctuations and key component shortages will continue to affect gross margin levels. Tight supply of core components such as blades, compressors, and combustion chambers may become key bottlenecks restricting capacity expansion [6].

The fragmented nature of the U.S. power grid (over 3,000 utility companies, each of the 50 states has its own regulatory rules) may lead to extended project approval cycles, indirectly affecting equipment delivery and performance confirmation [3]

In the short term, supply chain bottlenecks will lead to continued order backlogs for related equipment manufacturers, but actual performance release will be constrained by the pace of capacity expansion. In the medium term, as capacity gradually releases, 2026-2028 will be a key period for performance realization.

1. Demand Fluctuation Risk
   : If AI development falls short of expectations, it may lead to slower growth in data center power demand
2. Increased Competition Risk
   : High profit margins may attract new entrants and change the market pattern
3. Technology Substitution Risk
   : New technologies such as SOFC (Solid Oxide Fuel Cell) may substitute gas turbines

Based on the current market pattern and supply chain situation, it is recommended to focus on:

1. Industry Leaders
   : Global leaders with technical and capacity advantages such as GE Vernova and Siemens Energy
2. Segmentation Breakthroughs
   : Chinese enterprises like Jerry Group that enter the market through cooperation models
3. Upstream Industry Chain
   : Suppliers with core component technologies such as Howmet

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[0] Jinling API Data
[1] CompressorTech2 - “Gas Turbine Surge Creates New Bottlenecks for Midstream Infrastructure” (https://www.compressortech2.com/zh/news/gas-turbine-surge-creates-new-bottlenecks-for-midstream-infrastructure/8104814.article)
[2] National Business Daily - “AI ‘Electric Tiger’ Hits Grid ‘Old Bones’: U.S. Power Shortage Roils Global Capital Markets” (https://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2025-11-21/4153108.html)
[3] Huxiu - “Trump Says ‘No Power Shortage’, But Blackstone Invests 25 Billion USD” (https://m.huxiu.com/article/4817189.html)
[5] Securities Times Online - “Jerry Group Wins Over 100 Million USD North American Order to Achieve Key Breakthrough in North American Data Center Business” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3516300.html)
[6] TradingKey - “Strong Demand Growth Confirmed, Boosting Confidence in GE Vernova Valuation” (https://www.tradingkey.com/zh-hans/analysis/stocks/us-stock/251387562-gevrnova-gev-investors-meeting-tradingkey)
[8] CICC Research Department - “Power Equipment: Global Power Cycle Begins, Grid Investment Pace Accelerates” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockzmt/2024-12-19/doc-inczxzyc7090285.shtml)