Liqun Co., Ltd. 3 Consecutive Limit-Up Risk Analysis Report

Based on in-depth analysis of Liqun Co., Ltd. (601366), the current stock price has a

, and the fundamentals of the commercial chain industry cannot support the current stock price level. Although recent favorable policies have driven the overall activity of the consumer sector, the company’s fundamentals have not seen substantial improvement, and the short-term price increase has seriously deviated from fundamental support.

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:

• 3 consecutive limit-up days
  : Dec 16-18 [1]
• Stunning short-term gain
  : 33.92% cumulative increase in the past 5 days, 27.70% increase in the past month [0]
• Surge in trading volume
  : Average daily volume of 17.38 million shares, indicating obvious short-term capital drive

Chart shows Liqun Co., Ltd. had consecutive limit-ups in mid-December, with significant volume increase, showing short-term overheating characteristics in technical terms

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[0]:

• P/E ratio
  : 333.23x (extremely overvalued)
• ROE
  : Only 0.36% (extremely weak profitability)
• Net profit margin
  : 0.21% (meager profit margin)
• Current ratio
  : 0.53 (insufficient short-term debt repayment capacity)
• Quick ratio
  : 0.28 (high liquidity risk)

[0]:

• 2025 Q2 revenue: 1.57 billion USD
• Revenue shows quarterly decline trend: Q1 (2.14 billion USD) → Q2 (1.80 billion USD) → Q3 (1.57 billion USD)
• Recent quarters’ EPS have been zero, reflecting sustained weak profitability

Liqun Co., Ltd. has issued a

clearly stating [1]:

• The stock price has risen sharply, with subsequent decline risk
• Main business, production and operation conditions, and business environment have not changed significantly
• No major matters that should be disclosed but not disclosed

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:

• 2024 national total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.5% YoY [8]
• 2025 first three quarters’ limited-edition retail businesses: convenience stores (+6.4%), supermarkets (+4.4%) performed relatively well [8]
• Department stores only grew by 0.9%, showing weak growth of traditional retail formats

[2]:

• “K-shaped” consumption recovery
  : High-end luxury goods and cost-effective necessities perform well; mid-end consumption is under pressure
• Online consumption continues to grow
  : E-commerce penetration rate keeps rising
• County-level consumption potential released
  : Rural consumption growth rate continues to outpace urban areas

[8][10]:

• Central Economic Work Conference first proposed “adhere to domestic demand-led”
• Three departments jointly issued 《Notice on Strengthening Business and Financial Collaboration to Boost Consumption with Greater Efforts》
• Consumption stimulus policies like “trade-in” continue to advance

, and Liqun Co., Ltd. as a regional retailer, the impact of policy dividends is relatively limited.

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:

• P/E ratio of 333.23x far exceeds industry average
• P/B ratio of 1.23x is relatively reasonable but reflects average asset quality
• EV/OCF ratio of12.57x shows relatively low cash flow valuation

:

• Liquidity risk
  : Current ratio 0.53 and quick ratio0.28 indicate short-term capital pressure
• Profitability risk
  : ROE only0.36%, extremely low return on net assets
• Market risk
  : Excessive short-term increase leads to technical correction demand
• Industry risk
  : Traditional retail formats face e-commerce impact and consumption upgrade pressure

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###5. Investment Recommendations

:

1. Technical side is seriously overbought, high probability of short-term correction
2. No substantial improvement in fundamentals, stock price deviates from fundamentals
3. Company has clearly warned of risks, official attitude is cautious
4. P/E ratio of333x has huge valuation bubble

:

1. Substantial improvement in profitability (ROE improves to over5%)
2. Improvement in liquidity (current ratio回升 to over1.0)
3. Results of digital transformation become apparent
4. Same-store sales growth rate turns positive

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###6. Conclusion and Recommendations

: Liqun Co., Ltd.'s current stock price , the3 consecutive limit-ups are more the result of short-term sentiment speculation and policy expectation-driven. Although the commercial chain industry benefits from consumption recovery expectations, Liqun Co., Ltd.'s individual fundamentals are weak, and high valuation is unsustainable.

:

• Short-term
  : It is recommended to avoid or reduce positions to prevent technical correction risks
• Medium-long term
  : Wait for fundamental improvement signals before considering allocation
• Risk control
  : Set strict stop-loss levels and control position size

Comparison chart shows Liqun Co., Ltd.'s recent increase far exceeds the overall performance of the retail industry, showing obvious deviation phenomenon

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: This analysis is based on current public information, market environment may change rapidly. Investors should combine their own risk tolerance and make investment decisions prudently.

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[0] Gilin API Data - Liqun Co., Ltd. financial data and market performance
[1] Sina Finance - “3 Consecutive Limit-Up Liqun Co., Ltd.: The company has subsequent decline risk due to sharp stock price increase” (2025-12-18)
[2] Xingzheng Strategy Zhang Qiyao: How do the top ten foreign investors view A-shares in2026? - Sina Finance (2025-12-16)
[3] Securities Times - “Retail sector is active again! Anji Food斩获7 consecutive limit-ups, Huanlejia and other stocks rise sharply” (2025-12-18)
[4] Securities Times - “600865, strong 4 consecutive limit-ups! Retail stocks, collective outbreak!” (2025-12-17)
[5] Sina Finance - “Retail sector kills a ‘big bull stock’, 4 days 4 limit-ups, ignites!” (2025-12-16)
[6] Qingdao Shinan District Consumer Retail Observation - KPMG China (2025-12)
[7] Christmas shopping season is coming, how are the retail leaders performing? - GO Markets (2024-12-05)