Investment Goal Setting and Strategy Selection Analysis

Based on market data and investment theory research, I will analyze this professional issue regarding investment goal setting and strategy selection from three core dimensions.

• Price Index: From 1000 points in 2005 to approximately 3900 points in 2024, 20-year compound annual return of about 7%-8% [1]
• Total Return Index (including dividend reinvestment): Annualized return increased to 9%-10% [1]
• Recent 5-year performance (2020-2024): Geometric average annual return of approximately -0.74%, total return index approximately 1.6% [1]

• US Stock Market: S&P 500 has performed strongly in recent two years, with an increase of 43.27% during 2024-2025 [0]
• Family Office Expectations: About 33% expect a return of 10-15%, only a few expect more than 15% [2]

• Based on historical performance of CSI 300 Total Return Index
• Relatively controllable risk, suitable for most individual investors

• Requires excellent stock selection and timing ability
• Your 13.78% annualized return is already in this range
• Requires above-average investment skills

• Only top investment masters have been able to achieve this consistently in history
• Extremely high requirements for professional ability, time investment, and psychological quality

• Current CSI 300 valuation is at a historical low (PE 12.17x, PB 1.31x) [1]
• Dividend yield of 3.49% provides basic support for returns [1]
• But exceeding 15% requires relying on excess returns rather than dividends

• Historical data shows that the proportion of investors who consistently achieve 15%+ annualized returns is extremely low
• Even professional institutions can hardly guarantee outperforming the index every year
• Requires dual excess returns of “β+α”

• Use CSI 300 as the benchmark to seek excess returns
• Combine with your existing risk control tools like the “Bogle Market Thermometer”
• Adopt the “Core + Satellite” allocation strategy

• Core position (60-70%): Allocate index funds or high-quality blue chips
• Satellite position (30-40%): Select individual stocks for band operations
• Strict profit-taking and stop-loss discipline

• Advantages
  : Significant compound interest effect, low transaction costs, low psychological pressure [3]
• Disadvantages
  : Need to bear large fluctuations, miss short-term opportunities
• Suitable Scenarios
  : High-quality enterprises, stable industries like consumer staples [4]

• Advantages
  : May obtain excess returns, relatively diversified risks [4]
• Disadvantages
  : High transaction costs, need continuous monitoring, easy to miss sharp rises
• Suitable Scenarios
  : Cyclical industries like manufacturing, high-volatility market environments [4]

• Adopt the “moderate low-frequency buying low and selling high” strategy you have already practiced
• Reduce operation frequency, improve operation quality
• Establish a systematic timing and stock selection framework

• Single band operation position should not exceed 20% of total funds
• Set clear profit-taking and stop-loss points
• Regularly review and adjust strategy parameters

• Short-term (1-2 years): Target 12-15% annualized
• Medium-term (3-5 years): Target 10-12% annualized
• Long-term (5+ years): Target 8-10% annualized

• Take outperforming CSI 300 Total Return Index as the main target
• Strive for relative returns in bear markets, pursue absolute returns in bull markets

• Continue to optimize risk control tools like the “Bogle Market Thermometer”
• Establish quantitative stock selection and timing standards
• Formulate detailed capital management rules

• Accept dynamic adjustment of return targets
• Emphasize process over results
• Maintain learning and evolution capabilities

Your 10-year investment experience from 1 million to 10 million proves that individual investors can achieve excellent returns through reasonable strategies. Your 13.78% annualized return has far exceeded the market average. It is recommended to adjust the long-term return target to the range of 10-15%, which is both challenging and practically feasible.

In the current market environment, a hybrid strategy combining band operation and long-term holding is a wise choice, but it is necessary to control the operation frequency and improve investment quality. The most important thing is to establish an investment system suitable for yourself and strictly implement risk control disciplines.

[0] Jinling API Data - S&P 500 performance data for 2024-2025 period
[1] Xueqiu - Long-term return analysis of “About CSI 300”, including historical data and valuation analysis
[2] Citi Private Bank - “Global Family Office Survey Insights 2024”, analysis of professional institutions’ return expectations
[3] Southern Fund - Analysis of compound interest effect of long-term investment in “Fund Investment Methods”
[4] Huatai Securities Research - Analysis of applicable scenarios for different strategies in “Current and Future of Fundamental Quantification”