Driving Factors, Sustainability, and Asset Impact of China's Asset Uptrend: An Analysis Based on Fang Sanwen's Views

This analysis is based on Fang Sanwen’s speech at the 2025 Snowball Carnival [0][1]. The three “rebalancings” proposed by Fang Sanwen are the core drivers of China’s asset uptrend: First,

—Chinese residents’ asset allocation shifts from real estate to stocks, due to the adjustment of the real estate market and the increased attractiveness of the stock market [0]; Second, —the reversal of global investors’ pessimism towards China’s assets, coupled with the Fed’s interest rate cut expectations [3] and the RMB exchange rate’s stability with a strengthening trend [2], leading to an increase in the proportion of China’s assets in global allocation; Third, —the rapid development of technology sectors (such as AI and semiconductors) drives the adjustment of allocation between asset classes and sectors [4]. Market data confirms the asset uptrend: the Hang Seng Index has risen by 28.89% since 2025 [0], the CSI 300 Index has risen by about 15% [1], and the overseas-listed Internet index has risen by about 24% [0].

The “rebalancing” phenomenon proposed by Fang Sanwen reflects

in asset allocation rather than a short-term market rebound [2]. Cross-asset rebalancing embodies the long-term transformation of Chinese residents’ asset allocation logic, while global rebalancing reflects the value revaluation of China’s assets in the global market. In internal rebalancing, the rapid development of the technology industry is the core driver, which will continue to promote the value enhancement of related assets [4].

1. Data Limitations
   : Detailed verification data on the specific trend of the real estate market in cross-asset rebalancing is not provided [0];
2. External Risks
   : Uncertainties in global economic growth, fluctuations in Sino-US trade relations, and slowdown in domestic economic growth may interfere with the continuation of the trend [0];
3. Policy Risks
   : Policy changes such as the opening-up process of the capital market and adjustments to monetary policy need continuous attention [1][3].

1. Stock Market
   : Will continue to benefit from asset allocation rebalancing; technology sectors and high-quality enterprises may become major growth points [4];
2. RMB Assets
   : The stability of the RMB exchange rate and the increased attractiveness of China’s assets will attract foreign capital inflows and promote value enhancement [2].

The core drivers of China’s asset uptrend are the three rebalancings, and market data confirms their effectiveness. Sustainability depends on conditions such as real estate market adjustment, global investors’ allocation willingness, and domestic policy support. The impact on assets varies as follows:

• Stocks
  : Benefit from asset allocation transfer; technology sectors and high-quality enterprises may perform prominently [4];
• Real Estate
  : Faces adjustment pressure; high-quality properties in core cities may still be attractive [0];
• Bonds
  : Trends are related to interest rate and inflation expectations; will perform well if interest rates decline [0];
• RMB Assets
  : Increased attractiveness to foreign investors; value may continue to grow [2].