CNOOC's Cost Advantage and Valuation Resilience: Performance in Low Oil Price Cycles and Assessment of 2026 Earnings Forecast

Based on social media analysis data [0], CNOOC’s main cost per BOE in 2024 was $28.52/BOE, with operating cost at $7.61/BOE, demonstrating strong cost control capabilities. Among international peers, Saudi Aramco’s cost per BOE in 2023 was $24.46/BOE, and ConocoPhillips reduced its operating cost to $9.20/BOE through digital transformation (suspected to be operating cost only, not total cost).

The Deep Sea No.1 project, as a key asset of CNOOC, saw its second phase put into operation in 2024 with a peak output of 27,500 BOE/day, part of the trillion-cubic-meter gas field in the South China Sea, but no specific profit data has been disclosed yet. Regarding the 2026 earnings forecast, most institutions assume Brent crude prices in the range of $72-$80 per barrel, while the earnings forecast under the extreme assumption of Brent crude at $43 in the original article (approximately RMB 69.4 billion in non-net profit) has not been verified in existing data. In terms of valuation, CNOOC’s current P/E ratio is 6.92x, lower than the international industry average.

1. Differentiated Advantage in Cost Control
   : CNOOC’s operating cost ($7.61/BOE) is lower than ConocoPhillips, indicating strong cost competitiveness in production; however, its total cost per BOE ($28.52/BOE) is slightly higher than Saudi Aramco, reflecting the impact of factors such as geographical environment (deep-sea operations in the South China Sea).
2. Valuation Potential and Data Gaps
   : The low P/E ratio (6.92x) suggests that CNOOC may have valuation resilience, but more verification is needed to support its profitability under extremely low oil prices. The production contribution of the Deep Sea No.1 project has been confirmed, but its profit contribution remains unclear, which may affect the assessment of its long-term growth potential.
3. Uncertainty in Forecast Assumptions
   : Existing market forecasts are mostly based on medium-to-high oil price assumptions, and the extreme scenario of Brent crude at $43 in the original article lacks industry consensus verification, requiring further data support to confirm its risk resistance capabilities.

• Risks
  : The 2026 low oil price earnings forecast has not been verified, with significant uncertainty; the lack of profit data for the Deep Sea No.1 project may affect the comprehensive assessment of its cost advantage; insufficient cross-cycle profit comparison data with international peers makes it difficult to clearly define the long-term cost moat.
• Opportunities
  : The low operating cost and P/E ratio provide a foundation for CNOOC’s valuation resilience; the commissioning of the Deep Sea No.1 project will increase production scale, and if profits meet expectations, it can further strengthen its cost advantage; if oil prices rebound in the future, CNOOC’s earnings elasticity may emerge.

CNOOC has performed well in cost control, with operating costs outperforming some international peers and current valuation lower than industry levels, providing a certain foundation for resilience. However, the earnings forecast under the extreme low oil price assumption in 2026 has not been verified, and the profit contribution of the Deep Sea No.1 project still needs to be clarified. It is recommended to pay attention to CNOOC’s future cost data disclosure, the profit performance of the Deep Sea No.1 project, and the actual impact of oil price fluctuations on its earnings to more comprehensively assess its cost advantage and valuation resilience.