Realistic Analysis of CNOOC's Investment Return Rate Under the Assumption of Brent Crude Average Price of $55

1. Core Assumption Verification
   : CNOOC’s 2025 production target is a year-on-year increase of 5.5%-8.3%, higher than the 4.5% assumption, so production growth has a realistic basis [0]; under the Brent crude $55 assumption, the 90 billion yuan profit is in a reasonable range, considering the company’s 31.83% net profit margin and oil price elasticity [0]; current PE valuation is 6.92x, and the 2030 valuation repair to 10x PE is feasible [0].
2. Return Rate Calculation Logic
   : According to the mathematical calculation of (17350/8800)^(1/5)-1≈14.5%, the return rate logic is valid, but it depends on three prerequisites: stable Brent crude at $55, valuation repair, and accurate dividend discounting.
3. Market and Industry Background
   : Currently, CNOOC’s Hong Kong stock market capitalization is about 7.65 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the assumed 880 billion yuan [0]; EIA predicts Brent crude at $66 in 2026, so the $55 assumption is in a lower range [1]; global oil and gas demand will reach a peak plateau from 2025 to 2030 [2].

1. Core Support for Production Growth
   : CNOOC’s overseas projects in Guyana (Phase 8 project in 2030) and Brazil (Phase 11 project in 2027) will continue to contribute production increments, supporting 4.5% annual growth [0].
2. Elastic Relationship Between Profit and Oil Price
   : When oil price drops from $68 to $55 (19% decrease), profit falls from 130 billion yuan to 90 billion yuan (31% decrease), which is consistent with the profit elasticity and fixed cost structure characteristics of the oil and gas industry [0].
3. Potential for Valuation Repair
   : The 10x PE valuation assumption is slightly higher than the current 6.92x, but if oil prices stabilize, production growth continues, and dividend policy remains stable in the future, valuation repair is possible [0].

1. Main Risk Points
   : Oil price fluctuations caused by changes in global oil and gas supply and demand; geopolitical risks affecting overseas projects; long-term impact of new energy transformation on the valuation of traditional oil and gas industry [0][2].
2. Opportunity Window
   : CNOOC’s cost control capability and stable dividend income (current 6.76% dividend yield) support investment; offshore oil and gas production accounts for more than 60% of domestic increments, and its industry position is solid [0].
3. Assumption Uncertainties
   : The assumption of “10% profit growth” contradicts the oil price decline assumption; the calculation method of 285 billion yuan dividend discount value is not public, so dividend policy and discount rate need to be confirmed [0].

Based on the assumption of Brent crude average price of $55, CNOOC’s production growth, profit scale, and valuation level have certain rationality, and the mathematical logic of 14.5% annualized investment return rate is valid, but it depends on three core prerequisites. Investment decisions need to comprehensively consider oil price fluctuations, geopolitical risks, and long-term impacts such as new energy transformation, while paying attention to the verification of profit growth and dividend discount assumptions.