Strategy Analysis of Individual Investors' Ten-Million-Level Capital Shift from 'Buy-and-Hold' to 'Swing Trading'

The investor (Boge) has over 20 years of investment experience, with 10 years of public real trading records showing capital growth from 1 million to 10 million yuan, cumulative return of 219.7%, and annualized return of 13.78% [0]. The core driving factors for their strategy shift include two aspects: first, the significant increase in absolute loss risk brought by expanding capital scale—when capital grows from millions to ten millions, a 20% drop means losses expand from 200,000 to 2 million yuan, making it much harder to cover with work income [0]; second, the sustained deterioration of market environment—CSI 300 Index of A-shares fell consecutively from 2022 to 2024, and Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong stocks fell consecutively from 2021 to 2024, so the traditional ‘buy-and-hold’ strategy was difficult to maintain returns or even faced large losses during this period [0].

The shifted strategy is ‘moderate, low-frequency buy low and sell high’ swing trading, with specific practices including: using tools like the ‘Boge Market Thermometer’ to measure market risk levels; tracking key market data such as capital flows and dividend yields; conducting in-depth research on listed companies and fund managers; and performing ETF arbitrage across multiple platforms and utilizing VIP benefits [0].

1. Capital Adaptability of Strategy
   : The ‘buy-and-hold’ strategy is notable for its long-term compound interest effect in the small capital stage, but when capital scale expands to ten million level, the pressure of absolute loss will force investors to adjust their strategy to a more risk-controlled operation mode.
2. Strategy Response to Market Cycle
   : A sustained market downturn cycle is an important trigger for strategy shift, indicating that investors need to dynamically adjust their strategy according to market environment rather than rigidly adhering to a single strategy.
3. Support Role of Systematic Tools
   : The shifted strategy relies on tools like the ‘Market Thermometer’ and data such as capital flow and dividend yield, indicating that ten-million-level capital management requires more systematic analysis methods and tool support rather than relying solely on experience judgment.

• Swing trading has high difficulty in timing; improper execution may lead to frequent trading and erode returns.
• The application of cross-platform arbitrage and VIP benefits needs to pay attention to platform rule changes and operational risks; insufficient understanding of rules may lead to losses.

• Rebound trends that may occur after a sustained market downturn cycle provide an opportunity window for buy-low-sell-high swing trading.
• Cross-platform ETF arbitrage and VIP benefits can increase income sources under risk control and enhance the flexibility of capital management.

The investor’s real trading experience demonstrates the necessity and practice path of strategy shift in ten-million-level capital management. The logic of their shift from ‘buy-and-hold’ to ‘moderate swing trading’ stems from dual changes in capital scale and market environment, and strategy execution relies on systematic tools, data tracking, and in-depth research. This experience provides a reference for individual investors to adjust their strategies in ten-million-level capital management, but it needs to be applied specifically in combination with their own risk tolerance and market environment.