Impact Analysis of Intensified Lithium Carbonate Supply-Demand Mismatch on Valuation Restructuring of A-share Lithium Battery Sector

1. Supply-Demand Mismatch and Price Trend
   : In November 2025, lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 3,481 tons month-on-month [1], entering a continuous destocking phase. Leading enterprises such as Haichen Energy Storage and EVE Energy are operating at full capacity [1]. Global annual demand is about 1.55-1.6 million tons, with a tight supply-demand balance [2][3]. Jiangxi Yichun plans to cancel 27 mining rights, coupled with the JXW EIA issue, leading to the delay of some production capacity resumption until 2026 [1][3]. Global supply in 2026 will only have a slight surplus of 94,000 tons, with remaining uncertainties [1]. The futures price of lithium carbonate broke 110,000 CNY/ton in December 2025, with a Q4 increase of over 30% [1]. It is expected to be 120,000-150,000 CNY/ton in the first half of 2026, and may exceed 200,000 CNY/ton if demand is better than expected [2].

2. Valuation System Restructuring Logic
   : Lithium carbonate has shifted from the “disorderly supply expansion” phase to the “cost curve determines the pattern” phase [2]. Long-term demand certainty has been verified, and effective supply constraints have emerged [2]. Price reversal drives the valuation logic of the lithium battery sector to shift from “demand explosion” to “resource value”, restructuring the valuation system [2].

3. Benefit Logic for Leading Enterprises
   : Upstream lithium resource enterprises (Ganfeng Lithium 002460.SZ, Sinomine Resource 002738.SZ) directly benefit from price increases with high performance elasticity; leading battery enterprises (CATL 300750.SZ) have stronger bargaining power and profit stability through resource layout and cost control [2].

• The combined effect of policy regulation and supply-demand mismatch has accelerated the price reversal of lithium carbonate and the restructuring of the valuation system.
• The performance elasticity of upstream resource enterprises will become a short-term driving factor for the sector, while the depth of resource layout determines the long-term competitiveness of enterprises.
• Battery leaders such as CATL can smooth the impact of price fluctuations and maintain long-term stable profits through vertical integration layout.

• There is a difference between futures and spot prices; the current spot market is still in the range of 97,200-100,000 CNY/ton [1], so attention should be paid to the convergence of futures and spot prices.
• The details of the JXW EIA issue have not been disclosed, and the claim of production resumption delay until 2026 needs official confirmation [1].
• Attention should be paid to the sustainability of lithium carbonate demand and the rhythm of supply release [3].

• The rising cycle of lithium carbonate prices brings performance improvement opportunities for upstream resource enterprises [2].
• The restructuring of the valuation system brings investment opportunities for repricing of the sector [2].

The intensified supply-demand mismatch of lithium carbonate and the established price reversal trend are driving the restructuring of the valuation logic of the lithium battery sector. Upstream enterprises such as Ganfeng Lithium and Sinomine Resource directly benefit from price increases, while CATL maintains competitive advantages through resource layout and cost control. Attention should be paid to futures-spot price differences, uncertainties about production resumption delays, and the sustainability of demand, while seizing opportunities brought by price increases and valuation restructuring.