Analysis of Profit Path and 2026 Overseas Expansion Potential of Robotaxi Under 0.81 CNY/km Cost

This analysis is based on social media discussions and industry reports [1][2][3][4][5], focusing on core issues in Robotaxi commercialization for operators such as WeRide and Pony.ai.

1. Cost Advantages and Supporting Factors
   :
   After completely removing safety personnel, the per-kilometer operating cost of Robotaxi is reportedly reduced to 0.81 CNY, which is about 58% and 43% lower than traditional fuel ride-hailing (1.93 CNY) and pure electric ride-hailing (1.43 CNY) respectively. This specific figure has not been directly verified, but the industry trend of cost reduction is supported: Waymo’s model shows that eliminating driver costs (accounting for 40% of traditional ride-hailing revenue) can significantly reduce operating costs, and vehicle hardware has dropped from millions of yuan to hundreds of thousands due to technological maturity [1]. Cost reduction mainly comes from three dimensions: vehicle cost from 1 million to 205,000 yuan (the trend is consistent but the figure is to be verified [1]), cloud-based remote driving human-vehicle ratio from 1:5 to 1:50 (efficiency improvement trend is recognized by the industry [1]), and 24-hour operation and fast charging technology to optimize operational efficiency.

2. Profit Conversion and Investment Value
   :
   Current operators are in the loss phase; for example, Pony.ai’s net loss in Q3 2025 was 61.6 million USD (up 46% year-on-year), but its revenue was 25.44 million USD (up 72% year-on-year), of which Robotaxi service revenue was 6.7 million USD [0]. The profit path depends on scale expansion to release cost advantages: Waymo plans to achieve 1 million weekly services by the end of 2026, with an expected profit margin of 50% [1][4]. At the investment level, Pony.ai has received a unanimous buy rating from analysts, with a target price having an upside potential of 83.7% from the current level [0], and the industry as a whole is regarded as a long-term growth track.

3. 2026 Overseas Expansion Potential
   :
   WeRide has launched fully driverless Robotaxi services in Abu Dhabi and plans to expand to 15 cities in the Middle East and Europe [2]; Pony.ai plans to triple its global Robotaxi fleet size by the end of 2026 and enter 8 countries including Qatar and Singapore [3]. Due to high labor costs in the Middle East, the cost advantage of Robotaxi is more significant, which is the main arbitrage space [1]; Uber also plans to launch Robotaxi services in 10 countries in 2026, accelerating the industry expansion pace [5].

• The core of cost advantage lies in driverless costs and scale effects; fleet expansion and service coverage in 2026 will be the profit turning point.
• Regions with high labor costs like the Middle East are priority choices for overseas expansion, and their cost arbitrage space is far larger than the domestic market.
• The current losses of operators are mainly due to technology iteration and fleet expansion investment; long-term profits depend on continuous optimization of operational efficiency and scale expansion.

• Risks
  : Specific cost figures such as 0.81 CNY/km have not been officially verified [1]; current losses are still expanding, and there is uncertainty about the profit time point [0]; overseas markets face regulatory barriers and localization challenges.
• Opportunities
  : Robotaxi has significant cost advantages, and the industry enters the 2026 first year of performance [2][3][4][5]; overseas expansion has broad space, with prominent potential in the Middle East [1][2][3]; improved technological maturity (such as Waymo’s 10 million miles of safe driving record [1]) enhances market confidence.

• Robotaxi has significant cost advantages in fully driverless state, the trend is supported by the industry, but specific figures need further verification.
• Operators like WeRide and Pony.ai rely on scale expansion and overseas layout in 2026 for profit; currently in the investment phase but with obvious growth momentum.
• 2026 is a key node for Robotaxi commercialization, and overseas expansion especially in the Middle East will be an important source of increments.
• Investment value needs to focus on operational scale, cost control and overseas landing progress; the industry is generally optimistic but short-term risks need to be carefully evaluated.