Analysis of the Impact of U.S. Strengthened Oil Sanctions on Venezuela on the Global Energy Market

The U.S. strengthened oil sanctions against Venezuela in December 2025. As of December 21, it had seized two oil tankers and chased a third, targeting the “shadow fleet” transporting Venezuelan oil [4][5][6]. Venezuela, as the country with the world’s largest proven oil reserves (over 300 billion barrels, accounting for about 20% of the world’s total) [8], its sanction escalation has attracted market attention.
From the perspective of the global supply chain, Venezuelan oil accounts for only 1% of global supply, and heavy crude oil from Canada and the Gulf of Mexico can弥补潜在缺口, so it will not trigger a global supply crisis [2][7]. However, the sanction news led to short-term oil price fluctuations: after Trump announced the blockade on December 17, 2025, WTI rose 1.3% to $55.99 per barrel, Brent rose 1.54% to $60.60 per barrel, then fell back due to progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement [7][1].

The escalation of sanctions affected the sentiment of the energy investment market. The Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE) fell by 1.74% from December 1 to 23, 2025, reflecting investors’ cautious attitude towards the energy sector [0]. As the only large U.S. oil company operating in Venezuela, Chevron’s stock price fluctuated due to geopolitical risks and rising compliance costs [9].

1. Short-term and Limited Impact of Sanctions
   : Although Venezuela has huge reserves, its current production accounts for an extremely low proportion of the world, so the actual impact of sanctions on global supply is limited, mainly manifested in short-term market sentiment fluctuations rather than long-term supply shortages.
2. “Shadow Fleet” Becomes the Focus of Sanctions
   : The U.S. action against the “shadow fleet” indicates that the focus of sanction enforcement has shifted to the transportation link that evades sanctions, which may increase the compliance cost and complexity of energy transportation.
3. Feasibility of Regional Supply Substitution
   : Heavy crude oil resources from Canada and the Gulf of Mexico provide feasible options to make up for the gap in Venezuelan oil, enhancing the resilience of the global energy supply chain.

• Short-term Market Volatility Risk
  : Sanction-related news may continue to trigger short-term fluctuations in oil prices, increasing uncertainty in energy trade and investment.
• Corporate Compliance Risk
  : Energy companies operating in Venezuela (such as Chevron) face higher compliance costs and geopolitical risks.
• Uncertainty in Long-term Sanction Execution
  : It is necessary to pay attention to the long-term execution of sanctions and the response measures of the Venezuelan government, which may affect the long-term trend of the global oil market.

• Investment Opportunities in Alternative Energy Resources
  : The sanction event may prompt investors to pay attention to investment opportunities in alternative heavy crude oil resources such as Canada and the Gulf of Mexico.
• Improvement of Energy Supply Chain Resilience
  : Market participants may strengthen the management of energy transportation compliance, promoting the improvement of supply chain resilience.

• The U.S. strengthened oil sanctions against Venezuela, seizing/chasing oil tankers targeting the “shadow fleet”, and the event has been verified [4][5][6].
• Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, but its current production accounts for only 1% of the world [8][2].
• Sanctions led to short-term oil price fluctuations, but long-term supply risks are limited, and the global market supply is sufficient [2][7].
• In the energy investment sector, the decline of XLE ETF reflects investors’ cautious attitude, and Chevron’s stock price fluctuated [0][9].
• Market sentiment is neutral to cautious, mainly focusing on short-term fluctuations rather than long-term supply shortages [2].