Analysis of the Reshaping of Kweichow Moutai's Channels and Business Model by Live E-commerce and Its Investment Impact

The claim that China’s live e-commerce market size will reach 5.8 trillion yuan in 2024 has not been verified by authoritative institutions [1][2][5], but as a fast-growing sales channel, live e-commerce has had a significant impact on the consumer industry. Moutai’s traditional channel structure is a strict hierarchical dealer network, which gives the company a high degree of price and channel control but has problems such as low channel efficiency and high anti-counterfeiting difficulty [0].

Social platform discussions point out that Moutai dealers have achieved breakthrough performance in the live e-commerce channel (single live sale of 4.54 million yuan, over 16 million yuan in a single live session on Douyin), but this data has not been confirmed by official or authoritative media [1][2][3][4]. If the live e-commerce channel continues to develop, Moutai’s channel structure may shift from relying on offline traditional dealers to an online-offline integration model, adding Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) channels and improving channel transparency and anti-counterfeiting capabilities through authorized dealers selling on live platforms [0]. In terms of business model, Moutai may use live platforms for brand marketing and user interaction to expand the young consumer group [0].

The impact of live e-commerce on Moutai’s long-term investment value is two-sided. Potential benefits include: reducing dealer commissions through the DTC model to improve gross margin; expanding the customer base to attract young consumers; enhancing brand influence [0]. Potential risks are: improper handling may alienate the traditional dealer network and affect short-term sales; the “mass” attribute of live e-commerce may impact Moutai’s high-end brand image [0].

1. Moutai’s stock price fell slightly by 0.12% on the day of the discussion (2025-12-22), closing at 1408.26 yuan, with a cumulative drop of 0.52% in the following two trading days, underperforming the 0.058% gain of the consumer defensive sector on that day [0], indicating that live e-commerce-related discussions did not have an immediate positive impact on the stock price, or there were other influencing factors.
2. The development of live e-commerce requires Moutai to balance traditional dealer relationships and emerging channel expansion in channel transformation, which will test the company’s channel management capabilities.

• Opportunities
  : Live e-commerce provides Moutai with a new channel for direct consumer reach, which can optimize channel efficiency, improve anti-counterfeiting capabilities, expand the young consumer group, and help improve gross margin and brand influence in the long term [0].
• Risks
  : Unverified live sales data may exaggerate channel potential; the stability of the traditional dealer network may be impacted; the “mass” attribute of live e-commerce may dilute Moutai’s high-end brand positioning [0].
• Priority
  : Close attention should be paid to Moutai’s official layout strategy for the live e-commerce channel and the reactions of traditional dealers.

As an emerging channel, live e-commerce may reshape Moutai’s channel structure and business model, having a two-way impact on its long-term investment value. Although some sales data have not been verified, its influence as an industry trend is worth attention. Moutai needs to balance traditional dealer relationships and high-end brand image maintenance when expanding the live e-commerce channel, which will be a key factor affecting its long-term development.