Analysis of the Impact of Housing Voucher Policy on China's Real Estate Industry and Key Real Estate Enterprises

This analysis focuses on the housing voucher policy implemented in first-tier cities such as Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. Its core mechanism is that local governments use land as credit support to convert demolition compensation into “housing vouchers” that can be used for purchasing houses, attempting to bypass the traditional financial system and directly inject liquidity into the real estate market [0]. From existing market data, the performance of the three real estate enterprises is clearly differentiated: China Resources Land (1109.HK) ranks first with a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.54 times, a net profit margin of 9.18%, and an annual increase of 25.23%; Poly Developments (600048.SS) and Greentown China (3900.HK) are facing the dilemma of negative returns and negative profit margins [0].

1. Policy Positioning Needs Clarification
   : The housing voucher policy is essentially a targeted demand-side stimulus. It directly converts demolition compensation recipients into homebuyers, which can reduce inventory and improve real estate enterprises’ cash flow in the short term, but it is difficult to solve fundamental problems such as high leverage in the real estate sector and insufficient consumer confidence [0].
2. Differentiated Benefits for Real Estate Enterprises
   : China Resources Land (1109.HK), with its advantages of deep roots in core cities and sound financial position, is more likely to seize the demand increment brought by the policy; while Poly Developments (600048.SS) and Greentown China (3900.HK), due to their weak current profitability, cannot completely reverse their fundamentals relying solely on the policy [0].
3. Limitations of Analogy
   : Comparing housing vouchers with Soviet Area vouchers has historical context differences. The effectiveness of land credit under the modern financial system and the long-term sustainability of the policy still need to be verified [0].

• Opportunities
  : The policy can directly drive housing demand in core cities, alleviate the liquidity pressure of real estate enterprises in the short term, and is beneficial to enterprises with high inventory [0];
• Risks
  : The policy lacks implementation details and long-term supporting measures, and its effect will be limited if it cannot be converted into actual housing purchase behavior; the root causes of the real estate crisis have not been resolved, so the policy is difficult to become the “ultimate solution” [0].

The housing voucher policy is an innovative demand-side stimulus measure in the real estate market. It is expected to improve the cash flow and de-stocking pressure of some real estate enterprises in the short term, but it cannot solve the long-term structural problems of the industry alone. Among the three real estate enterprises, China Resources Land (1109.HK) has more advantages due to its sound financial position, while Poly Developments (600048.SS) and Greentown China (3900.HK) still need to pay attention to the recovery of their profitability.