Investment Opportunities in Gold and Silver Amid Stagflation and Lessons from the 1970s Experience

Current social media discussions focus on investment opportunities in gold and silver under stagflation and insights from the 1970s stagflation experience. Core views include: the current economy is in a stagflation period, gold target of $50,000 per ounce, silver target of $96-$100 per ounce, and the precious metals bull market will start after a stock market crash and last for several years. Verification results show that some analysts believe the U.S. economy is approaching the edge of stagflation [1], and the World Gold Council also lists stagflation as a potential driver of a gold bull market [2], but there is no widespread consensus on “clearly entering a stagflation period”. The forecast of gold at $50,000 per ounce is far beyond the mainstream expectations of the World Gold Council (around $4,000 [2][3]) and JPMorgan (breaking $5,000 per ounce [4]), and lacks data support; while the silver target of $100 per ounce is basically consistent with the forecasts of institutions such as BNP Paribas and Solomon Global [4], and combined with the current performance of silver exceeding $69 per ounce in December 2025 [1][5], it has certain rationality.

Regarding precious metals market data, gold hit new all-time highs repeatedly in 2025, with the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) up over 70% year-to-date and reaching a high of over $4,497.41 per ounce [0][1][5]; the iShares Silver ETF (SLV) rose over 130% year-to-date, and spot silver once climbed to $66 per ounce [0][4]. During the 1970s stagflation, gold rose from $35 to $850 (an increase of over 2300%), and silver rose from $1.5 to $50 (an increase of over 3200%), driven by factors such as the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, high inflation, and geopolitical risks. The current environment has similarities with the 1970s in terms of inflation pressure, U.S. dollar status, and geopolitical risks, but the financial market structure, monetary system, and global economic pattern have changed, so historical experience should be referenced with caution.

1. Market Impact of Stagflation Expectations
   : Although there is no consensus on “clear stagflation”, stagflation concerns have become an important sentiment factor driving the rise in precious metals prices [1][2]. After the Fed cut interest rates in September 2025, market concerns about persistent inflation and slowing economic growth intensified, further strengthening the safe-haven demand for precious metals.

2. Relative Advantages of Silver Investment
   : Data from the World Silver Association shows that industrial demand accounts for about 58% of silver demand (with the photovoltaic sector accounting for 17%) [4]. The dual support of its industrial and precious metal properties has made its increase (over 130% year-to-date) far exceed that of gold (over 70% year-to-date) [0], and the target of $100 per ounce has more institutional consensus.

3. Limitations of Historical Experience
   : The sharp depreciation of the U.S. dollar after the collapse of the gold standard in the 1970s was a key factor in the surge in precious metals. However, the U.S. dollar is still the world’s main reserve currency, and central banks have more policy tools, so historical gains are difficult to directly replicate. At the same time, the view in social media that “a stock market crash triggers a bull market” lacks clear evidence support. Although precious metals as safe-haven assets are sought after when the stock market falls [2][1], the direct correlation between the start of a bull market and a stock market crash needs further verification.

: Stagflation expectations, Fed rate cuts, and persistent geopolitical risks continue to support the long-term bull market expectations for precious metals [1][2]; the growth in industrial demand for silver (such as in the photovoltaic sector) provides additional upward momentum [4]; gold ETF inflows hit a record in 2025 [1][5], indicating an increase in institutional allocation demand for precious metals.

: Extreme forecasts such as “currently entering a stagflation period” and “gold at $50,000 per ounce” lack consensus and data support [2][3][4]; the precious metals market is highly volatile, and historical experience cannot guarantee future performance; the time frame and trigger factors of a stock market crash are unclear, and the logic of the related bull market start has uncertainty; technical analysis indicators and key price levels are not detailed, and the rigor of the forecast needs to be verified.

The current economy is approaching the edge of stagflation but has not clearly entered a stagflation period. Precious metals show long-term bull market expectations supported by multiple macro factors. The target of silver at $100 per ounce has certain rationality, while the forecast of gold at $50,000 per ounce is an extreme minority view. The historical experience of the 1970s can provide references, but attention should be paid to the differences in current market structure and monetary system. Investors should focus on core driving factors such as stagflation expectations, central bank policies, and industrial demand, and carefully evaluate the risks of extreme forecasts.