Guodian Power (600795) Valuation Transformation Potential Analysis: From Thermal Power Cyclical Stock to Hydropower Value Stock?

Social media posts discuss Guodian Power (600795) achieving valuation transformation from a thermal power cyclical stock to a hydropower value stock through strategic adjustments after the major shareholder change (such as long-term coal price control, dividend commitment ≥60%/per share ≥0.22 yuan), commissioning of Dadu River Hydropower in 2026-2027 (attributable net profit rising from 2 billion yuan to 3 billion yuan), and injection of high-quality thermal/hydropower assets from the group [unverified]. At the industry level, hydropower has advantages over thermal power in stable cash flow and low cyclicality (stable fuel costs), coupled with policy support for China’s clean energy development [0], providing a macro environment for transformation. Market data shows that Guodian Power’s current market capitalization is approximately 105.77 billion yuan, with a P/E ratio of 14.26x, P/B ratio of 1.73x, a 33.86% increase since 2025, and a 172.02% increase over the past five years [0]. However, financial analysis reveals that the company has negative free cash flow (-2.456 billion yuan), high debt risk, and adopts conservative accounting policies [0].

• The core logic of valuation transformation lies in the increase in the proportion of hydropower business, reducing the impact of thermal power cycle fluctuations. If the profit contribution of Dadu River Hydropower increases after commissioning and the group’s asset injection is implemented, it will strengthen the company’s hydropower attributes and improve valuation stability [0].
• If the dividend commitment is fulfilled, it will enhance the attractiveness of shareholder returns and promote the transformation of valuation from low dividend/high volatility of cyclical stocks to high dividend/stable growth of value stocks.
• Information gaps lead to doubts about key transformation drivers (management measures, dividend commitments, asset injections), which need to be verified by official announcements.

• Risks
  : 1) Key claims are unverified; the authenticity of core transformation factors such as management changes, dividend commitments, and asset injections is questionable; 2) Current negative free cash flow and high debt risk require optimization of the financial structure; 3) Thermal power business is still affected by coal price fluctuations; if the effect of long-term coal price control is not as expected, cyclical risks still exist [0].
• Opportunities
  : 1) China’s clean energy development policies support the expansion of hydropower business, with large industry valuation premium space; 2) The company’s stock price has performed strongly in recent years, and market sentiment is positive; 3) If transformation drivers are implemented, the potential for valuation improvement is significant [0].

Guodian Power has the industry environment and business foundation to transform from a thermal power cyclical stock to a hydropower value stock, but core transformation drivers (management strategy, dividend commitment, asset injection, profit contribution of hydropower projects) have not been verified. Current market data shows that the company has a large market capitalization and strong stock price performance, but there are certain hidden dangers in financial health. It is necessary to pay attention to official announcements to verify key information before evaluating its transformation potential.