Assessment of Distressed Turnaround Investment Opportunities for High-end Baijiu Enterprises: Analysis of Valuation Repair for Moutai and Wuliangye

This analysis is based on investment bloggers’ weekly summary articles [3] and industry data, focusing on the distressed turnaround investment opportunities for high-end baijiu against the backdrop of economic transformation. Currently, Moutai (600519.SS) has a PE of 19.49x and Wuliangye (000858.SZ) has a PE of 14.92x, both at historically low valuations [0], which aligns with the characteristics of distressed turnaround: ‘market pessimistic valuation but solvable problems’. The industry is addressing inventory and sales pressure through measures such as the ‘bottle opening rate improvement campaign’ and ‘channel optimization’. The total baijiu price index increased month-on-month in early December 2025 [2], indicating signs of industry recovery. Moutai and Wuliangye have a history of stable dividends (dividend payout ratios were approximately 51.8% and 40% respectively in 2024), and the dividend-buy strategy is attractive in a low-valuation environment [0]. Meanwhile, the Hainan customs closure policy will promote duty-free shopping quotas and category expansion, benefiting duty-free enterprises like China Duty Free Group in the long term [1].

1. Valuation Repair Potential
   : Moutai and Wuliangye are currently at historically low valuations, combined with stable dividend capabilities, providing a basis for valuation repair. Institutions generally believe that the food and beverage sector has reached the ‘strike zone’ [1], and the proportion of active funds holding food and beverage positions has dropped to a historical low, indicating relatively low market expectations and large potential for valuation repair.
2. Industry Recovery Rhythm
   : The recovery of the baijiu industry depends on domestic demand recovery; attention needs to be paid to the progress of economic recovery and policy implementation effects [1]. The industry inflection point may not come until after the second quarter of 2026, and it is currently in the bottom-building stage [2].
3. Impact of Related Industries
   : The Hainan customs closure policy’s promotion of duty-free consumption may indirectly drive the recovery of high-end consumption, providing synergistic support for the baijiu industry.

: Leading high-end baijiu enterprises have brand moats and stable operating capabilities; the dividend-buy strategy in a low-valuation environment is attractive in the medium and long term. The rise in the industry price index shows signs of recovery, and institutions are optimistic about the allocation value of the sector [1].

: High-end baijiu still faces pressures such as high inventory and price inversion; the rhythm of industry recovery is uncertain due to economic environment impacts [2]. The article does not specify the specific time nodes and measures for solving the problems of baijiu enterprises, so continuous tracking of industry dynamics is needed.

Moutai and Wuliangye are currently at historically low valuations, in line with the characteristics of distressed turnaround investments, and have potential for valuation repair. The industry is alleviating pressure through measures such as channel optimization; institutions generally favor the bottom value of the sector. Investments need to pay attention to the progress of economic recovery, industry inventory digestion, and policy implementation effects. Meanwhile, the Hainan customs closure policy will benefit duty-free enterprises like China Duty Free Group in the long term.