Analysis of Investment Landscape in Semiconductor Packaging and Testing Industry Amid AI Packaging Transformation

1. Industry Cyclicality and Technological Transformation
   
   The packaging and testing industry has experienced cyclical fluctuations in recent years: “2022-2023 slow year → 2024 recovery → 2025 lull” [0]. The traditional packaging market has entered a mature stage, while AI advanced packaging (2.5D/3D packaging, CoWoS process) has become a new growth engine for the industry. Advanced packaging has high technical barriers and huge capital investment, but due to the high bandwidth and high performance requirements of AI chips, its future market return potential is significant [0].

2. Global and Domestic Competitive Landscape
   
   TSMC is the absolute leader in the global CoWoS advanced packaging field and is expanding production significantly to meet the needs of AI chip companies like NVIDIA and AMD [0]. The three major domestic packaging and testing companies (Changdian Technology 600584.SS, Tongfu Microelectronics 002156.SZ, Huatian Technology 002185.SZ) have shown differentiated performance: Tongfu Microelectronics, due to its collaboration with domestic memory chip leader Changxin Memory Technologies to develop HBM semiconductors required for AI chips, has seen its stock price rise by 26.31% over the past year, significantly outperforming the industry; Changdian Technology and Huatian Technology have fallen by 10.60% and 12.44% respectively [0].

1. Technology Path Selection and Industrial Synergy
   
   Tongfu Microelectronics’ rise reflects the market’s recognition of the “AI technology + domestic supply chain” synergy model [0]. As a key technology for AI chips, HBM packaging capability directly affects the independent and controllable process of the domestic AI industry chain. Glass substrate and TGV (Through Glass Via) technology, as core materials for next-generation advanced packaging, have advantages of strong thermal stability and high I/O density, and will become key tracks for future industry competition [0].

2. Global Tech Cycle and Domestic Opportunities
   
   During the same period, the U.S. stock tech sector rose overall (Nasdaq Composite Index up 18.67%), reflecting continued global optimism about the tech industry [0]. Domestic enterprises’ technological breakthroughs in advanced packaging face pressure from the technical and production capacity advantages of global leaders, but also benefit from local market demand brought by the rapid development of the domestic AI industry.

• Explosive growth of the domestic AI industry brings local demand for advanced packaging
• Track restructuring opportunities brought by breakthroughs in new materials such as glass substrates
• Collaborative development of key technologies like HBM with domestic chip enterprises to enhance industrial status

• Huge investment in advanced packaging technology and long R&D cycles put domestic enterprises under capital pressure
• Expansion of global leaders like TSMC will consolidate their market leading positions
• Cyclical fluctuations in the industry may affect short-term investment returns

AI packaging transformation is reshaping the competitive landscape and investment logic of the semiconductor packaging and testing industry. The traditional packaging market has weak growth, while advanced packaging has become the core driver of industry growth. Domestic enterprises have made certain progress in advanced packaging, and Tongfu Microelectronics’ collaboration model with Changxin Memory Technologies has been recognized by the market. In the future, new material technologies like glass substrates and HBM packaging capabilities will become key directions for domestic enterprises to break through. Although the industry faces cyclical fluctuations and competition pressure from global leaders, local demand brought by the development of the domestic AI industry provides an important opportunity window for domestic enterprises.