Analysis of Seeking Alpha’s 2025 Market Narrative Challenges: Fed Chair Candidacy & Magnificent 7 Performance

On December 24, 2025 (09:25 EST), Seeking Alpha published an article [1] challenging two widely held 2025 market narratives, coinciding with an early Christmas Eve market close that led to extremely low S&P 500 trading volume (887.45M vs. 5.37B 30-day average) [0].

First, the article dismisses the narrative that investor anxiety would surge if Kevin Hassett becomes Fed chair. Hassett, a former director of the National Economic Council, was a frontrunner in the race to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell with 53-54% odds on prediction markets as of December 16 [2]. Earlier in December, markets reacted positively to rising odds of his nomination, with Treasury yields falling (reflecting rate cut expectations) and the U.S. dollar weakening [3]. On December 1, when his odds exceeded 50% for the first time, stocks and the housing sector rallied amid expectations of a more dovish monetary policy [4].

Second, the article challenges the narrative that the market’s success hinges on the Magnificent 7 stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, Nvidia). Data shows the S&P 500 closed at ~6,931 on December 24 with an estimated 18% YTD return [0][5], while the MAGS ETF (tracking the Magnificent 7) is up 24% YTD [6]. This discrepancy indicates that a small number of top-performing stocks (such as Alphabet, which had a 64% YTD return as of December 14 [7]) are driving the ETF’s outperformance, while five of the seven Magnificent 7 stocks lag the S&P 500’s YTD return.

• Holiday Liquidity Impact
  : The article’s Christmas Eve publication likely muted immediate market reaction, as thin trading conditions can exaggerate or delay price moves [0]. Post-holiday trading on December 26 should be monitored for any delayed impact.
• Magnificent 7 Disparity
  : While the MAGS ETF outperforms the S&P 500, the underperformance of five Magnificent 7 stocks suggests the market’s 2025 success is not solely dependent on this group, aligning with the article’s claims [6].
• Market Expectations for Hassett
  : The positive market reaction to rising odds of Hassett’s nomination indicates investors may view him as more likely to implement rate cuts compared to other candidates [3][4].

• Fed Chair Uncertainty
  : The race for Fed chair remains neck-and-neck between Hassett and Kevin Warsh, with potential volatility if the nomination goes to a less market-friendly candidate [2].
• Magnificent 7 Valuations
  : All seven stocks trade at a premium to the S&P 500 (e.g., Tesla’s forward P/E ratio of 212.4), raising concerns about overvaluation [6].
• Holiday Trading Risks
  : Thin liquidity on December 24 could lead to exaggerated price moves, so investors should avoid overinterpreting that day’s market action [0].

This analysis validates the Seeking Alpha article’s challenge to two 2025 market narratives using quantitative data. Kevin Hassett’s Fed chair candidacy has not sparked investor anxiety, as evidenced by positive market reactions to his rising nomination odds. The Magnificent 7’s contribution to market performance is uneven, with five stocks lagging the S&P 500 YTD while a small number of top performers drive the MAGS ETF’s outperformance. Holiday liquidity conditions likely muted immediate market reaction to the article, requiring monitoring of post-holiday trading for further insights.