Baize Medical (02609.HK) Popular Stock Analysis Report

Baize Medical (02609.HK) has recently become a popular stock in Hong Kong, with the core driver being the lock-up expiration event of cornerstone investors’ shares [0][1][2]. On December 24, the lock-up period for approximately 35.3178 million shares held by cornerstone investor Harvest Oriental SP expired, and the market reaction was directly reflected in the stock price: intraday, it once fell by more than 4%, hitting an all-time low of HK$4.11, and breaking below the IPO price of HK$4.22 [0][1][2]. As of the close, the stock price was quoted at HK$4.16-4.19, a decrease of approximately 2.14-2.56% from the previous day [1][2].

From the price range perspective, the company’s stock had a high of HK$19.88 in the past three months and a low of HK$5.74. The current stock price has significantly fallen below the three-month low range and is at an all-time low [3]. In terms of trading volume, the turnover on the lock-up expiration day was approximately HK$10.732 million, with a turnover rate of about 0.36% and a volume ratio of 0.69, which is lower than the market average [1][3], indicating that the current market trading activity is not high.

Market negative sentiment towards this lock-up expiration event is obvious [0]. In investor communities such as stock forums, most investors expressed concerns about the lock-up expiration, believing that cornerstone investors have a low shareholding cost (approximately US$19 million for 35.3178 million shares) [5], and there is significant selling pressure, which may lead to further stock price declines [4]. Although some investors tried to bottom-fish around HK$4.3, the overall market sentiment is pessimistic [4].

The company’s fundamentals also face challenges: first-half revenue only grew by 0.7%, and although adjusted net profit increased by 72.8%, overall growth is weak [1]. At the same time, the current price-earnings ratio is -521.70, indicating that the company has not yet made a profit, and valuation risks are high [3]. In addition, low trading volume leads to liquidity risks, which may exacerbate price volatility.

1. Lock-up expiration pressure
   : Cornerstone investors have low shareholding costs, and potential selling may further suppress the stock price [5]
2. Valuation risk
   : Negative P/E ratio indicates the company has not yet made a profit, and valuation lacks profit support [3]
3. Fundamental challenges
   : Weak revenue growth, unclear long-term profit prospects [1]
4. Liquidity risk
   : Low trading volume may exacerbate price volatility [3]

1. Stock price at all-time low
   : Current price has fallen below the IPO price and all-time low, which may attract long-term investors’ attention
2. Policy support
   : The medical service industry is supported by policies in the long term; if the company can improve its fundamentals, it has potential for valuation repair

Baize Medical (02609.HK) became a popular Hong Kong stock due to cornerstone share lock-up expiration, with the stock price hitting an all-time low. Market sentiment is negative, and investors are worried about lock-up expiration selling pressure. The company’s fundamentals are growing weakly, it has not yet made a profit, and there are valuation risks. Subsequent attention is needed to:

• Changes in cornerstone investors’ shareholdings
• Improvements in the company’s revenue and profit status
• Changes in trading volume and shifts in market sentiment

This report provides objective market analysis and background information and does not constitute investment advice.