Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) Popular Market Trend Analysis

Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) became a hot Hong Kong stock primarily driven by the sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices. On December 23, lithium carbonate futures prices exceeded 120,000 yuan/ton with a daily increase of over 5%; the next day, the main contract rose another 5% to 124,360 yuan/ton [1]. The direct cause of the surge is delayed production resumption at a large mica lithium mine in Jiangxi: the mine released its first environmental impact assessment announcement on December 18, and resumption in December is impossible while January resumption remains uncertain. This weakened off-season inventory accumulation expectations, and low current inventory further supported price increases [1].

At the company level, Ganfeng Lithium recently issued RMB 500 million bonds with a 2.33% coupon rate, mainly for replacing M&A loans maturing within one year [2]. Industry-wise, data from the Lithium Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association shows that lithium carbonate futures prices have gradually climbed with increased volatility since November 2025, lithium enterprises’ Q3 performance has rebounded, and market expectations for future lithium prices are generally optimistic [1].

On December 24, the company’s share price rose over 3% to approximately HK$58.1 [1][4]; as of December 25, it fell back to HK$56.05 [3]. In the long term, the 52-week price range is HK$16.22-HK$63.35, with a year-to-date gain of 171.26% [3]. In terms of trading volume, 13.12 million shares were traded on December 23, lower than the 3-month average of 25.46 million shares, indicating limited market participation [3].

1. Sector Linkage Effect
   : Lithium price increases drove the entire sector upward; Tianqi Lithium (09696.HK) rose over 2% in the same period, reflecting consistent market expectations for lithium price hikes [1].
2. Fundamental-Share Price Divergence
   : Despite significant share price gains, the company is currently in a loss position with a TTM EPS of -HK$0.58 and a P/E ratio of -87.37x [3], showing a divergence between market sentiment and fundamentals.
3. Risk vs. Expectation Game
   : Lithium price trends are the core factor affecting the company’s share price. If the mica lithium mine resumes production faster than expected, a lithium price correction will directly impact the share price.

1. Lithium Price Volatility Risk
   : Lithium carbonate prices are sensitive to supply-demand changes. If production resumption at the mica lithium mine is earlier than expected or demand fluctuates, prices may correct, hitting the share price [1].
2. Fundamental Risk
   : The company is currently in loss, and the divergence between fundamentals and share price gains may erode market confidence [3].
3. Liquidity Risk
   : Recent trading volume is below the 3-month average; if market sentiment reverses, the share price may fluctuate sharply [3].

1. Sustained Lithium Price Rise
   : If lithium prices maintain their upward trend or climb further, it will boost expectations of profit improvement for the company.
2. Industry Recovery Trend
   : Rebounding Q3 performance of lithium enterprises and optimistic market expectations for future prices indicate a gradual industry recovery.

• Share Price Performance
  : Current price HK$56.05, 52-week gain 171.26%, peaked at HK$58.1 on December 24 [3][4].
• Core Catalyst
  : Sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices due to delayed production resumption at a large mica lithium mine in Jiangxi [1].
• Company Developments
  : Completed issuance of RMB 500 million bonds with a 2.33% coupon rate [2].
• Risk Reminders
  : Lithium price volatility, fundamental losses, insufficient liquidity.
• Key Price Levels
  : Resistance at HK$63.35 (52-week high), support at HK$55.8 (recent low) [3].