Vanke Enterprise (02202.HK) Debt Crisis Draws Attention on Hong Kong Stock Exchange Hot List

1. Stock Overview
   : Vanke Enterprise (02202.HK) is a real estate sector company. As of December 25, 2025, the A-share (000002.SZ) closing price was $4.79, and the H-share (02202.HK) was approximately HK$3.54 at midday on December 22 [0][1][4]; the A-share market capitalization was $56.76B [0].

2. Analysis of Popularity Reasons
   : Vanke has attracted high market attention due to the escalation of its debt crisis. Core events include:
   • Failed bond extension: In December 2025, bondholders rejected the $28.4 million bond extension proposal, putting the company at default risk [2];
   • Reversal of government rescue: The Shenzhen Municipal Government revoked part of the rescue plan, breaking the expectation that “state-owned developers will not go bankrupt” [1];
   • Plummeting asset prices: Multiple domestic bonds fell over 20% triggering trading suspensions, and both A/H shares hit multi-year lows [3][4];

3. Price and Trading Volume Performance
   :
   • A-share data shows a 32.63% decline since 2025 and a 20.70% drop in 30 days; the closing price on December 25 was $4.79 with a trading volume of 109.78M, lower than the previous trading day [0];
   • H-share fell 3.8% intraday on December 22, touching a low of HK$3.54 [4].

1. Industry Signal Significance
   : As a leading real estate enterprise, Vanke’s crisis escalation is not only an individual issue but also reflects the government’s trend of tightening real estate industry policies, potentially triggering debt risks for more developers [1];
2. Reversal of Market Expectations
   : The reversal of government rescue broke investors’ “government bailout” expectation, and plummeting bond and stock prices reflect extreme market concern about Vanke’s debt-servicing ability [1][3][4];
3. Cross-market Spillover Impact
   : Synchronous A/H share price declines and significant volume fluctuations indicate the crisis’s spillover effect on domestic and foreign markets [0][4].

1. Main Risk Points
   :
   • Debt default risk: After the failed extension, Vanke has a 5-working-day grace period; failure to repay will lead to formal default [2];
   • Liquidity risk: Plummeting asset prices may further narrow financing channels and exacerbate cash flow pressure [3];
   • Industry policy risk: The reversal of government rescue signals policy tightening, putting greater pressure on the entire industry [1];

2. Opportunity Assessment
   : Risks dominate the current stage with no clear opportunity window.

This analysis focuses on Vanke Enterprise (02202.HK) becoming a Hong Kong Stock Exchange hot stock due to debt crisis escalation. Core facts include multiple crises like failed bond extension, reversal of government rescue, and plummeting asset prices, with extremely pessimistic market sentiment. The event not only reflects Vanke’s own debt-servicing risk but also signals real estate policy tightening, which may have far-reaching industry impacts. Investors should closely monitor debt default progress, policy dynamics, and cash flow status.

• A-share: Recent low of $4.75 (intraday on December 25, 2025 [0]), key resistance at $5.00;
• H-share: Recent low of HK$3.54 (midday on December 22, 2025 [4]).