2026 U.S. Stock Market Forecasts and Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Impact Analysis

This analysis is based on a YouTube short (@tatianadariee) published on December 25, 2025, focusing on two key market themes: Wall Street’s 2026 U.S. stock forecasts and the potential impact of a U.S. Supreme Court tariff ruling. [Note: The linked December 19, 2025, Bloomberg session on Trump’s 2026 agenda was inaccessible due to crawl constraints, but market context is derived from secondary sources.]

Wall Street consensus projects 5-21% gains for the S&P 500 in 2026, driven by 14% projected earnings growth, AI investment, and expected Federal Reserve rate cuts [1]. In the weeks leading up to the event (December 1-24, 2025), U.S. indices posted modest gains: S&P 500 (+1.76%), NASDAQ (+1.90%), Dow Jones (+2.42%) [0].

The Supreme Court is reviewing the constitutionality of tariffs (reciprocal and fentanyl-related) imposed under former President Trump. Oral arguments on November 5, 2025, revealed conservative justices’ skepticism about the legal standing of these tariffs [4]. A ruling striking down the tariffs could result in billions of dollars in refunds for companies like Costco, Revlon, and Kawasaki, which have filed lawsuits to recover duty payments [2][3]. These refunds would directly benefit the retail, automotive, and consumer goods sectors in the short term.

1. Short-Term Earnings Catalyst
   : Tariff refunds could provide an immediate earnings lift for affected companies, potentially amplifying the 2026 earnings growth forecasts projected by Wall Street.
2. Sentiment Precedent
   : The Supreme Court’s skeptical oral arguments have already contributed to cautious optimism among importers, suggesting that market sentiment is sensitive to the pending ruling.
3. Policy-Front Interplay
   : The tariff ruling and Trump’s 2026 agenda are interconnected wildcards; their outcomes could either reinforce the bullish market forecast or introduce significant headwinds.

• Opportunities
  :
  • Immediate earnings gains for companies like Costco (COST), Revlon (REV), and Kawasaki from tariff refunds [2][3].
  • Broader market gains driven by AI investment, 14% projected earnings growth, and Fed rate cuts [1].
• Risks
  :
  • A Supreme Court ruling upholding tariffs could trigger sell-offs in importer-heavy sectors.
  • Midterm election outcomes and Trump’s 2026 economic policies create unresolved policy uncertainty [4].
  • The 14% projected earnings growth relies on unguaranteed factors, including widespread AI adoption and Fed rate cuts [1].

• Wall Street forecasts S&P 500 gains of 5-21% in 2026, driven by AI innovation, earnings growth, and expected Fed rate cuts [1].
• A Supreme Court tariff ruling striking down tariffs could deliver $billions in refunds to companies like Costco (COST), Revlon (REV), and Kawasaki, which have pending refund lawsuits [2][3].
• U.S. indices (S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow Jones) posted modest gains (1.76-2.42%) from December 1-24, 2025 [0].
• Information gaps include details of the December 19, 2025, Bloomberg session, the Supreme Court’s ruling timeline, and the exact scope of the tariffs under review.