Analysis of the Strong Performance and Sustainability Judgment of Guanglian Aviation (300900)

Guanglian Aviation (300900)'s strong performance is the result of the combined effect of

1. Sector Policy Catalysis
   : On November 25, the China National Space Administration released the “Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Aerospace (2025-2027)”, which incorporates commercial aerospace into the national space development plan and provides long-term development support for the domestic aerospace industry [1], becoming an important catalyst for the rise of sector stocks.
2. Technical Breakthrough and Momentum Continuation
   : The stock has recently shown strong technical performance. After breaking through key resistance levels on December 25, it formed a buying cluster and was included in the tushare strong stock pool, further attracting market attention [0]. The trading volume on that day reached 54.31M shares, an increase of 186.4% compared to the historical average volume (18.96M shares), indicating high market capital attention [0].

1. Immediate Transmission of Policy and Market Sentiment
   : The release time of the National Space Administration’s policy highly aligns with the 20-day 77.43% rise cycle of this stock, reflecting the immediate emotional driving effect of the policy on the aerospace sector.
2. 背离 between Technical and Fundamental Aspects
   : Technical indicators (KDJ, MACD bullish) and fundamentals (EPS-0.13, P/E-110.35x, net profit margin-7.14%) show obvious divergence. The current rise relies more on short-term momentum rather than profit support [0].
3. Signal Significance of Volume Expansion
   : The trading volume on that day increased to more than 3 times the historical average, which not only reflects the excitement of market sentiment but also suggests that short-term trading heat may be approaching its peak.

• Weak Fundamental Risk: The company’s recent profit situation is poor, lacking profit support, and the sustainability of the rise is questionable [0].
• Overbought Callback Risk: The RSI indicator shows overbought risk, and there is short-term callback pressure [0].
• Sustainability of Policy Catalysis: Sector policy benefits are long-term factors, and short-term stock price rises may have already reflected expectations in advance; subsequent actual orders or performance support are needed [1].

• Short-term Technical Target Price: Technical analysis shows the next target price is $33.31. If the trading volume cooperates to break through the current resistance level of $31.21, it may open up upward space [0].
• Long-term Development Potential of the Sector: The national commercial aerospace development plan provides long-term growth space for the industry. If the company can seize opportunities to improve profitability, it may achieve a fundamental reversal.

• Stock Price Performance: 19.99% increase on December 25, 24.34% increase in 5 days, 77.43% increase in 20 days [0].
• Technical Indicators: Upward trend to be confirmed, resistance level $31.21, support level $24.97, KDJ and MACD bullish, RSI overbought [0].
• Fundamentals: Negative net profit, P/E-110.35x, P/B 6.68x [0].
• Market Sentiment: Trading volume increased to 3 times the average, and attention increased significantly after being included in the strong stock pool [0].

The comprehensive information provided in the report aims to objectively present the market performance background of Guanglian Aviation (300900) and does not constitute investment advice.