Pop Mart (9992.HK) In-Depth Investment Analysis: Can the IP Matrix Operation Model Support Sustained Growth?

Now I will present a comprehensive investment analysis report on Pop Mart:

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Pop Mart’s IP matrix operation model has the potential to support it as a ‘great company’ with sustained growth capabilities, but it needs to meet three key conditions:

1. Successfully complete globalization transformation
   (current progress is smooth)
2. Maintain continuous innovation and IP incubation capabilities
3. Build a complete IP ecosystem
   (not just relying on trendy play products)

Based on current data, the company has demonstrated strong execution and business model resilience.

, as both have shown signs of success in breaking the traditional life cycle laws of their industries [0][1].

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From the chart:

• Current Stock Price
  : HK$200.20 (as of December 27, 2025)
• Market Capitalization
  : Approximately HK$265.9 billion
• Annual Performance
  : +119.64% since 2024, +132.79% in 1 year, +910.09% in 3 years [0]
• 52-week Range
  : HK$79.50-HK$339.80, currently in the mid-high range
• Period High
  : HK$335.40 (August 26, 2025)
• Period Low
  : HK$17.18 (February 5, 2024)
• Annualized Volatility
  : 56.87%, indicating high volatility [0]

Indicator	Value	Evaluation
ROE (Return on Equity)	54.52%	Extremely Excellent
Net Profit Margin	30.32%	Extremely High Profitability
Operating Margin	40.58%	Industry Leading
Gross Margin (2024)	66.8%	Historical High
P/E Ratio	35.53x	Relatively High Valuation
P/B Ratio	16.98x	Reflects High Growth Expectations

• Current Ratio: 3.01 (Very Healthy)
• Quick Ratio: 2.63 (Adequate Liquidity)
• Inventory Turnover Days: From 133 days in 2023 to 102 days in 2024 (Significant Improvement in Operational Efficiency) [1]
• Financial Attitude: Conservative
• Debt Risk: Low Risk

• Revenue: RMB 13.04 billion, YoY +106.9%
• Net Profit: RMB 3.4 billion, YoY +185.9%
• Overseas Revenue: RMB 5.07 billion, YoY +375.2% (38.9% of total revenue)
• Gross Margin: 66.8% (Historical High)

• Overall Revenue YoY +165-170%
• China Market Growth +95-100%
• Overseas Market Growth +475-480%
• Americas Market Q1 Revenue Reached Full-Year 2024 Scale

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IP Name	Launch Year	Operation Years	Life Cycle Stage	Revenue (RMB 100M)	YoY Growth	Features
Labubu (The Monsters)	2015	9	Growth Stage	32	220%	Global Hit, Overseas Driven
Molly	2006	18	Mature Stage	25	15%	Classic IP, Steady
SKULLPANDA	2019	5	Growth Stage	18	45%	Dark Style, Cross-over Success
Dimoo	2019	5	Mature Stage	15	30%	Warm & Healing, Strong Fan Loyalty
CRYBABY	2019	5	Growth Stage	8	180%	Emotional Resonance, Female-Oriented
Hirono	2021	3	Introduction Stage	5	300%	Niche Depth, Collection Value
Others	-	-	Diversified	17	25%	Diversified Supplement

1. Moderate IP Concentration
   : HHI Index 0.179, indicating high IP diversification and reduced single-point risk
2. Head Leading & Multi-Polar Support
   : 4 IPs with revenue over RMB 1 billion in 2024 (Labubu, Molly, SKULLPANDA, CRYBABY)
3. Labubu Accounts for 26.7%
   : Core IP but no over-reliance
4. Classic IP Vitality Verified
   : Molly maintains 15% growth after 18 years, contributing RMB 2.5 billion

• S-level
  : IP with annual revenue over RMB 1 billion (4 in 2024, increased to 5 in H1 2025)
• A-level/B-level
  : Potential but Need Cultivation
• C-level
  : Timely Stop Loss

• Tencent also adopts multi-product matrix strategy
• Honor of Kings launched in 2015, operated for 10 years, Q1 2025 revenue hit historical high
• Traditional game life cycle is only 6-12 months, but continuous operation breaks the rule
• Both have formed ‘Big IP’ concept beyond single product

Year	Domestic Revenue (RMB 100M)	Overseas Revenue (RMB 100M)	Overseas Share	Overseas Growth
2021	65	2	2.8%	-
2022	82	5	5.7%	150%
2023	95	19	16.7%	280%
2024	80	51	38.9%	375.2%
2025E	120	100	45.5%	96%

• Americas Market
  : Q1 2025 YoY +895-900%
• Europe Market
  : Q1 2025 YoY +600-605%
• Southeast Asia
  : 2024 Growth +619.1% (Revenue RMB 2.4 billion)
• Overseas Store Efficiency
  : Average per-store revenue over RMB 10 million (2.9x Domestic)
• Coverage
  : Entered nearly 100 countries

: Overseas revenue share exceed 50% by 2025 [1]

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1. IP Creation
   : Artist Discovery & Signing, In-house IP Incubation
2. Product Development
   : Design, Supply Chain Management, Category Expansion
3. Channel Sales
   :
   • Offline: 374 Direct Stores (H1 2024), Robot Stores
   • Online: Tmall, JD, Douyin (+5779.8% Growth), Self-operated APP
   • Members: 38.927 Million, Repurchase Rate 43.9%

Category	2024 Revenue (RMB 100M)	Growth	Share Change
In-house IP Trendy Play	-	-	From 62.7% to 53.2%
MEGA Collection Series	16.8	146.1%	High-end Strategy
Vinyl Plush	28.3	1289%	Explosive Growth
Blind Box	-	-	First Time Below 60% Share

: Blocks, Accessories, Jewelry, Games, Themed Parks etc. (Reduce Blind Box Dependence Risk) [0]

• Themed Parks
  : First park落地 in Beijing Chaoyang Park at end of 2023
• Game Business
  : Dream Home launched in June 2024
• Film & TV Content
  : Explore IP Reverse Content Filling

• Disney: Film & TV Content → Emotional Connection → Derivatives/Park Monetization
• Pop Mart: Product → User Base → Content/Experience Filling (‘Reverse’ Path)
• Ultimate Goal: Both are ‘IP Ecosystem’ Platforms

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• 2023 Size: RMB 773.1 billion
• 2028 Estimate: RMB 993.7 billion
• CAGR: 5.1-5.2%

• 2024 Size: RMB 75.6 billion (43.4% of IP Derivatives Market)
• Fastest Growing Categories: Static Dolls (CAGR 17.2%), Action Dolls (CAGR15.4%)
• 2026 Estimate: Exceed RMB110 billion

• US: RMB387
• Japan: RMB244.7
• China: RMB53.6
• China’s Potential
  : 1/7 of US,1/5 of Japan

Echelon	Enterprise	Annual Revenue (RMB100M)	Features
Tier1	Lego	1200	International Giant, Far Ahead
Tier2	Pop Mart	130.4	Local Leader, Trendy Play Track
Tier2	Bloks	43	Innovation in Building Blocks, Rising Strongly
Tier3	Disney	25	Global IP, Lagging Local Penetration
Tier3	Bandai	23	Japanese IP, Game Toys
Tier3	Mattel	15	US IP, Classic Toys
Tier4	52TOYS etc.	8-10	Chinese Local Enterprises

• 2020-2024 Revenue CAGR达51.4%
• 2024 Growth Rate106.9%
• Market Share11.9% (2021 Data, CR3=20.5%)

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1. Any hit IP has life cycle, continuous hit generation has uncontrollable factors
2. IP Paradox: Cross-over leads to ‘image abuse’ & ‘scarcity reduction’, core fans may leave
3. May eventually lead to sales stagnation

• Multi-IP matrix to smooth single IP cycle fluctuations
• Establish S/A/B/C dynamic classification system
• Continuous new IP incubation (10 IPs with over RMB100M revenue in2024)
• Maintain IP vitality via content & community

• Geopolitical Risk
• Localization Execution Difficulty
• Supply Chain Complexity Increase
• Exchange Rate Fluctuation Impact

• Overseas Gross Margin 8 percentage points higher than domestic
• Store efficiency continues to improve (verify business model replicability)
• Gradual strategy from Asia to Europe & Americas (easy to hard)

• P/E35.53x (Historical High Range)
• Stock price fluctuated greatly in52 weeks (HK$79.50-339.80)
• Need sustained high growth to support valuation

• Analysts expect2025-2027 Net Profit CAGR close to30%
• 2025 Revenue Target RMB20 billion (Overseas RMB10 billion)

• Traditional toy manufacturers transform
• Emerging trendy play brands emerge
• IP licensing industry competition fierce (2758 active IPs in 2024) [2]

• Compete with Disney, Sanrio etc. (Global Top IPs)
• Need to compete for young people’s ‘emotional budget’ [2]

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###7.1 Similarity Analysis

Dimension	Labubu(Pop Mart)	Honor of Kings(Tencent)	Evaluation
Birth Time	2015	2015	Fully Synchronized (10th Anniversary in2025)
Current Stage	Growth Stage(Revenue RMB3.2B, +220%)	Mature Stage but New High(Q12025 Revenue Historical High)	Both Break Traditional Industry Life Cycle
Revenue Contribution	Single IP RMB3.04B(2024)	Monthly Avg ~RMB1.2B(H12025)	Labubu Annual Revenue ~5 Months of Honor of Kings’ Revenue
IP Ecologization	Expand to Parks/Games/Accessories etc.	Animation/Music/Derivatives	Both Beyond Single Product to Form Big IP
Globalization	Overseas Share 38.9%(US/Europe Explosive Growth)	Mainly Domestic(Supercell etc. Overseas)	Labubu More Globalized
Life Cycle Management	Multi-IP Matrix Dynamic Allocation	Continuous Content Update & Esports Events	Both Establish Systematic Operation Capabilities
Commercialization	Gradually Diversified(Reduce Blind Box Dependence)	Relatively Restrained(Focus on User Experience)	Both Focus on Long-Term Value Over Short-Term Monetization

###7.2 Core Differences

• Honor of Kings
  : Virtual Products, Extremely Low Marginal Cost, Fast Iteration
• Labubu
  : Physical Products, Complex Supply Chain but Stronger Offline Experience

• Honor of Kings
  : High DAU Stickiness but Facing Ecosystem Aging
• Labubu
  : Collection Attribute, Repurchase Rate 43.9% but Need Continuous Innovation

• Honor of Kings
  : MOBA Category Lacks Successors but Game Market Shifts to FPS
• Labubu
  : Many Competitors in Trendy Play Track but IP Matrix Advantage Obvious

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###8.1 Positive Factors(Buy Reasons)

• Formed ‘Head Leading & Multi-Polar Support’ Mature Stage
• 4 IPs Over RMB1B in 2024(6 Expected in2025)
• Moderate IP Concentration(HHI0.179 Reduce Single-Point Risk)

• ROE54.52%, Net Profit Margin30.32%, Operating Margin40.58%
• 2024 Revenue +106.9% & Net Profit +185.9%
• Gross Margin Historical High(66.8%)

• Overseas Share From2.8%(2021) to38.9%(2024)
• Q12025 Overseas +475-480%(US/Europe Explosive)
• Overseas Store Efficiency2.9x Domestic(Verify Replicability)

• Molly Maintains15% Growth After18 Years
• Labubu Born10 Years(Operated6) Still in Accelerated Growth
• Break ‘Trendy Play IP Short Life Cycle’ Doubt

• From Blind Box to MEGA/Plush/Blocks etc.