2025 Gold Stocks Valuation Differentiation and Performance-Driven Logic

According to brokerage API data [0], four gold stocks showed clear “performance-valuation” stratification in 2025:

• Zijin Mining (High ROE, Low PE): The highest match between annual gain and profitability, reflecting the “performance-driven” logic.
• Chifeng Gold (High Net Profit Margin): Net profit margin significantly higher than peers, supporting valuation premium and annual returns.
• Shandong Gold (Low ROE/Net Profit Margin, High PE): Relatively weak profitability indicators, high valuation, and relatively underperforming annual results.

Note: The chart above includes visual comparisons of PE, ROE, net profit margin, annual return, etc.; bubble size corresponds to market cap (based on tool data).

The 2025 price trend shows that companies with stronger performance have better cumulative returns (e.g., Zijin vs. Shandong) [0]. Against the backdrop of gold prices being in a multi-year strong pattern, the sector β rose significantly, but α differences are still driven by the match between performance and valuation:

• Zijin: Annual +120.88%, ROE 30.60%, PE 19.51x [0].
• Shandong: Annual +71.49%, ROE 13.00%, PE 37.80x [0].

Conclusion: During the industry’s upward cycle, market pricing is not entirely “β-dominated”; performance delivery and valuation matching continue to drive individual stock α and valuation differentiation.

• Safe-haven and “de-dollarization” demand supports gold prices. Web searches show that the 2025 gold price strength is closely related to geopolitical risks, central bank purchases, and a weaker US dollar [1][2][3].
• The overall valuation and sentiment factors of A-shares are complex. Web searches show that A-shares exhibited periodic characteristics of sentiment repair and valuation regression between 2023 and 2025 [3], but specific levels and fluctuations are subject to tool data.

Note: The above are qualitative background references and do not replace the quantitative conclusions of tool data.

When market risk appetite declines:

• Companies with high ROE/high net profit margin have better cash flow and profit stability, with more supported valuations.
• Companies with low ROE/high PE are more sensitive to profit fluctuations, and valuation repair relies more on substantial performance improvement.

Combined with tool data [0]:

• Zijin, Chifeng: ROE ≥25%, high net profit margin, better cash flow and profit quality, more defensive valuations in downturns.
• Shandong, China National Gold: Low ROE, low net profit margin, more sensitive to performance delivery, valuation repair relies more on performance improvement and cost/merger synergies.

• Valuation: PE ~37.8x (TTM), significantly higher than Zijin (~19.5x) and sector median.
• Profitability: ROE ~13.0%, net profit margin ~4.9%, significantly lower than Zijin (ROE ~30.6%, net profit margin ~13.9%) and Chifeng (net profit margin ~23.7%).
• Liquidity: Current ratio ~0.53, quick ratio ~0.42, high short-term debt repayment pressure (Note: This is a sample value provided by tool data, reflecting the state at the sample point in time).

Positioning: High PE combined with low ROE/net profit margin and relatively tight liquidity suppresses valuation space.

Scenario 1 (Optimistic: Significant Performance Improvement):

• Annual Report Verification: Gold production/sales exceed expectations, unit cost reduction, or merger consolidation to boost profits, driving TTM earnings upward revision.
• Valuation Convergence: If ROE approaches 18%-20% and net profit margin improves to mid-to-high single digits, the market may reprice, with PE potentially moving toward 20-25x (depending on the sustainability of performance repair and industry comparison).

Scenario 2 (Neutral: Moderate Repair):

• Moderate Profit Improvement: ROE slightly improves, net profit margin stabilizes or rises slightly.
• Moderate Valuation Repair: PE slightly downward revision, stock price follows gold price β and sector β upward, but limited α space.

Scenario 3 (Pessimistic: No Improvement or Below Expectations):

• No substantial performance improvement or below expectations; high PE and weak profitability constrain valuation.
• If gold prices fluctuate at high levels or macro sentiment weakens, valuation and stock price may come under pressure.

Note: The above are scenario path judgments based on tool data and do not constitute probabilistic predictions.

• Recent Price and Moving Averages: 20-day,50-day,200-day moving average systems indicate the medium-term trend remains (specific values subject to tool price data).
• Risk Reminder: Relative strength and volume changes in technical analysis need to be interpreted in conjunction with tool technical analysis results.

Judgment Basis:

• Zijin, Chifeng: High ROE/high net profit margin support safety margin, better liquidity (e.g., Chifeng’s current ratio of2.94, quick ratio of2.03).
• Shandong Gold: Currently low ROE/net profit margin and tight liquidity, closer to “neutral” leaning optimistic.

1. Portfolio Allocation (Diversification):

• Prioritize Zijin/Chifeng (high performance-valuation matching, better liquidity) as core positions.
• Shandong can be a satellite position for “performance improvement options” with lower allocation ratio and strict tracking of performance delivery.

2. Performance Tracking and Rebalancing:

• Focus verification during annual report/Q1 report window: Production, cost, merger consolidation to boost profits, driving TTM earnings upward revision.
• If Shandong shows “significant earnings upward revision + ROE improvement + liquidity relief”, dynamically increase allocation ratio and valuation target.

3. Risk Control:

• Position Cap: Based on volatility and liquidity, set stricter position and stop-loss thresholds for high PE/low ROE stocks.
• Macro Linkage: Monitor marginal changes in gold prices, interest rate/exchange rate expectations (subject to tool and authoritative sources).

• Performance-driven PE differences were indeed the main cause of valuation differentiation among gold stocks in2025 (see tool data comparison)[0].
• During periods of weakening market sentiment or rising volatility, performance-valuation matching (ROE/net profit margin/PE three dimensions) will become the core basis for pricing.
• Shandong Gold’s valuation repair after the annual report relies more on dual verification of “substantial profit improvement + financial health enhancement”; if only relying on gold price β, valuation space is limited and volatility risk is high.

[0] Gilin API Data
[1] Yahoo Finance (Hong Kong) - 為什麼大家都在買黃金？避險與去美元化趨勢浮現（https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/為什麼大家都在買黃金-避險與去美元化趨勢浮現-173002812.html）
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[3] Yahoo Finance (Hong Kong) - 亂世黃金狂飆60%之後，2026是泡沫還是新起點？（https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/亂世黃金狂飆60-之後-2026是泡沫還是新起點-004002008.html）