Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160) In-depth Analysis of Investment Value in Refrigerant Business

• Current stock price: $37.87, market capitalization: approximately $1022.4 billion
• Year-to-date increase: 58.19%, 1-year increase: 61.84%, 3-year increase:144.32%,5-year increase:365.81% [0]
• Valuation indicators: P/E ratio:25.88x, P/B ratio:5.00x, ROE:20.77%, net profit margin:14.66% [0]

• Technical trend: Sideways consolidation, no clear direction
• Support level: $35.87; Resistance level: $38.38 [0]
• KDJ indicates overbought warning (K:80.3, D:78.8), short-term volatility risk needs attention [0]

• Current ratio:1.61, quick ratio:1.23, short-term solvency is good [0]
• Conservative financial stance, high depreciation/capital expenditure ratio, future profit has room for improvement [0]
• Debt risk: Low risk [0]

• At the beginning of 2024: approx.17,000-18,000 yuan/ton; by Q4 2025, it rose to the range of62,500-63,300 yuan/ton (yearly increase: approx.45%-250%, starting point difference due to data caliber) [1][3]
• Q3 2025 average price: approx.59,000 yuan/ton; Q2-Q3 quarterly increase:8,534 yuan/ton; current mainstream transaction:61,000-62,000 yuan/ton [5]
• Mid-December East China market quotation:63,300 yuan/ton; Q4 increase: approx.1.2%; cumulative yearly increase: approx.45% [3]

• 2026 total HFCs quota:797,800 tons, an increase of approx.6,000 tons compared to2025; R32 quota increase: only1,171 tons [3]
• R32 domestic demand gap continues to expand from2025-2027: -124,000/-153,000/-239,000 tons (domestic quota - domestic demand) [2]
• High industry concentration; quota adjustment range is still capped at10%; high GWP varieties are more concerned, R32 is relatively stable [5]

• Production cost: approx.14,500 yuan/ton [2]
• Quota system forms a specific model of “global supply-side structural reform + franchise rights + head concentration”, with strong supply rigidity [5]

• Second-generation refrigerant R22 price dropped sharply from high: Q32025 average price:34,100 yuan/ton; October dropped to15,000-18,000 yuan/ton (low-price destocking), then回升 to18,000-20,000 yuan/ton [5]; this volatility raised concerns about R32 replicating a similar path
• R32 currently remains “high price and stable volume”, enterprises have strong willingness to support prices:2025 first three quarters refrigerant average price:40,554 yuan/ton (YoY +58.1%), Q3 refrigerant average price:42,956 yuan/ton [5]

• Currently, the composite procurement model of “long-term agreement + short-term rigid demand” is dominant; actual transactions are moving towards high ranges, showing the characteristic of “structural price support” [2]
• Mainstream varieties (R32, R410A, R134a) continue to be strong; tight supply supports prices [2]

• R22 demand shrinks and quota is surplus (expected to reach40%), destocking through price reduction, which is industry clearing and structural switching; R32 supply-demand remains tight, quota increment is limited, so the possibility of replicating R22’s sharp drop is low [5][3]

• North American market: R410A demand cuts, R454B (68.9% R32 +31.1% R1234yf) penetration increases [2]
• R32 accounts for nearly70% of R454B; North American demand switch will significantly drive R32 exports and structural increments [2]

• Jan-Oct 2025 domestic air conditioner cumulative output: approx.230 million units, YoY +3% [2]
• Jan2026 domestic sales production schedule is YoY +30% on a high base; stock maintenance demand supports refrigerants (especially R32) [5]

• Jan-Nov2025 auto sales:31.127 million units, YoY +11.4%; new energy vehicles:14.78 million units, YoY +31% [5]
• New energy vehicle per-unit refrigerant filling volume is approx.2-4x that of fuel vehicles; demand for varieties like R134a increases significantly [5]

• Accelerated industrialization and urbanization in global southern regions drive air conditioner penetration and ownership increase, bringing medium-to-long-term increments for refrigerants [2]

• Fourth-generation refrigerant cost is approx. several times that of third-generation; energy efficiency decreases across generations; large-scale substitution is not economically feasible for now [2]

• R32 domestic demand gap continues to expand from2025-2027; supply-demand scissors difference is significant [2]
• 2026 quota is generally stable; demand side grows steadily (driven by domestic sales/exports/maintenance/new energy vehicles) [3]

• Supply quota rigidity + demand increment; R32 price center is expected to remain high and rise slowly; probability of sharp drop is low [3]
• Risk points lie in short-term capital sentiment or unexpected quota adjustments; however, high industry concentration, strong bargaining power of leading enterprises, and strong price resilience [5]

1. Industry Boom Continues
   : Supply rigidity under quota system; multi-dimensional demand growth (R454B/maintenance/new energy vehicles/developing countries); tight supply-demand supports high prices and profit elasticity [2][3]
2. Leading Enterprise Advantages
   : Juhua Co., Ltd. has obvious quota and industrial chain integration advantages;2025 first three quarters refrigerant average price:40,554 yuan/ton (YoY +58.1%), profit quality improved [5]
3. Valuation Matching
   : Current P/E ratio: approx.25.9x, ROE: approx.20.8%; valuation and profitability matching is acceptable, but need to be vigilant of valuation volatility caused by sentiment decline [0]
4. Long-term Pattern
   : Third-generation refrigerants are still the medium-term mainstream; fourth-generation substitution has high cost and slow pace; the industry is expected to experience an “extra-long boom cycle” [2]

1. Policy Risks
   : Unexpected quota adjustments, international trade frictions (US “double anti-dumping and countervailing duties”), etc. [5]
2. Demand Below Expectations
   : Weak terminal demand for real estate/automobiles/home appliances; slowdown in maintenance and renewal pace
3. Raw Material Volatility
   : Sharp price fluctuations of upstream materials like fluorite and hydrofluoric acid affect costs and gross profits [1]
4. Technology/Competition Risks
   : Fourth-generation refrigerant technology breakthrough pace or new competitors entering (short-term impact is limited)

• Short-term
  : Technical side is sideways and KDJ is at high level; be vigilant of increased volatility; suggest batch layout; pay attention to volume and sustainability after breaking through $38.38 [0]
• Mid-term
  : Seize supply-demand rebalancing under quota rigidity from2025-2026; R32 high price operation supports company performance; ROE is expected to remain high [3]
• Long-term
  : The business model formed by third-generation refrigerants’ “quota system + head concentration + rigid demand” has strong sustainability; as a leader, the company has long-term allocation value [2][5]

Overall, the probability that R32 prices will replicate R22’s sharp drop path is low: R22’s decline is mainly due to demand shrinkage and destocking, while R32 has tight supply-demand balance, expanding gap, and limited quota increment. Long-term agreement disputes are more about rhythm games and do not change the trend direction. Third-generation refrigerant demand growth (R454B substitution, maintenance cycle, new energy vehicles, emerging markets) is likely to offset price drop risks from2025-2027, supporting price center and profit resilience. As a leader, Juhua Co., Ltd., supported by quota and integration, is expected to continue to benefit from the industry boom in terms of performance and valuation.

[0] 金灵API数据
[1] 我的钢铁网 - 六氟磷酸锂及制冷剂市场行情（提及R32出厂报价区间）(https://m.mysteel.com/hot/1522702.html)
[2] 国海研究/产业在线 - 三代制冷剂需求与替代（海外R454B转向、维修周期、发展中国家、四代成本）(https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-12-03/doc-infznvhn9613588.shtml; http://www.chinaiol.com/News/Content/202512/44_63354.html)
[3] 网易/东方财富 - 2026年配额与价格数据（2026年HFCs总配额及R32增量；R32年内涨幅）(https://www.163.com/dy/article/KGVQETIV05567I2C.html; https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202512183595193452.html)
[4] 巨化制冷剂行业动态 - 2025年末配额与价格博弈（长协+刚需复合采购模式）(https://www.zhileng1.com/hangye/)
[5] 巨化股份投资者关系及卖方报告 - R22与R32价格、长协、供需与配额政策(R22库存去化、价格区间；R32价格与价差；公司量价与业绩；配额集中与调整上限)(https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-12-23/doc-inhcthkx7380011.shtml; https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202510241767996508_1.pdf)