Deep Analysis of Pop Mart's IP Operation Capability: Can It Replicate Tencent Games' 'Evergreen' Model?

Based on financial data and operational performance,

, and the popularity of Labubu is not accidental. The company has initially established a three-dimensional moat, with the infrastructure to replicate the “evergreen” model, but still needs a 3-5 year period to verify its sustainability.

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Indicator	2022	2023	2024	Growth Rate
THE MONSTERS Revenue	RMB 263 million	RMB 368 million	RMB 3.04 billion	726.6% YoY [1]
Plush Toy Revenue	-	-	RMB 2.83 billion	1,289% YoY [1]
Overseas Revenue	-	RMB 1.07 billion	RMB5.07 billion	375.2% YoY [1]
TikTok Shop US Monthly Sales	USD 429,000	-	USD4.8 million	1,018% YoY [1]

1. Precise product positioning:
   The “cute contrast” design (e.g., “Temperature” series) accurately captures Gen Z’s emotional needs [1], with sales exceeding 790,000 sets in 2024.
2. Celebrity effect ignites social currency:
   International stars like Rihanna and Beckham spontaneously shared their purchases, promoting Labubu from “collectible” to “social symbol” [1].
3. Global localization strategy:
   • Southeast Asia: Buddhist culture co-branded products
   • North America: Vietnam production layout to avoid tariffs
   • Europe: Cooperation with the Louvre for “Mona Lisa” co-branded products [1]

Labubu’s premium in the secondary market continues to rise, with auction prices hitting new highs [1], reflecting:

• Successful scarcity design mechanism
  (hidden item probability:0.69%-1/144) [1]
• Market recognition of IP cultural attributes
• Real demand support beyond irrational prosperity

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The data you mentioned—“Molly’s sales increased from 40 million to 2 billion yuan, with an annualized growth rate of76%”—itself answers the core question:

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Dimension	Molly (20-year Cycle)	Labubu (3-year Explosion)
Time Span	2006 to present	Exploded in2022
Revenue Growth	RMB40 million → RMB2.0 billion (76% CAGR)	RMB263 million → RMB3.04 billion (726% YoY)
Operation Strategy	Series iteration + blind box mechanism	Globalization + celebrity effect + category expansion
Life Cycle Verification	✅ Evergreen verified	⏳ Need further observation

1. Serial iteration:
   Continuous refresh of IP content through different theme series (e.g., constellation series, career series)
2. Blind box mechanism:
   Hidden items create repurchase addiction (members contribute 92.7% of sales) [1]
3. Full category expansion:
   From figurines to MEGA collection series, plush toys, and derivatives
4. Emotional connection:
   Molly’s “stubborn girl” persona continues to resonate with consumers

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Based on industry research, Tencent Games’ evergreen model (taking Honor of Kings as an example) is built on:

Factor	Tencent Games	Pop Mart	Similarity
IP Matrix	Multiple evergreen games (Honor of Kings, Peace Elite, etc.)	Molly+Labubu+Crybaby+Hirono, etc.	⭐⭐⭐⭐
Continuous content updates	Regular season updates, new heroes/skins	Serial new product releases (incubate 10+ new IPs annually) [1]	⭐⭐⭐
Social currency attribute	Team play, tournament culture	“Bag hanging” design, 10-20% premium in secondary market [1]	⭐⭐⭐⭐
Global expansion	Overseas distribution	375% growth in overseas revenue [1]	⭐⭐⭐⭐
Technology/supply chain barriers	Game engine, anti-cheating system	Vietnam/Mexico factories reduce costs by25% [1]	⭐⭐⭐

####4.2 Differentiated Advantages of Pop Mart

1. Higher gross margin:
   Pop Mart’s gross margin is approximately67% [2], vs. Tencent Games’ 50-60%
2. Lower R&D costs:
   Trendy toy IP development costs are far lower than game R&D
3. Faster globalization speed:
   900% growth in the Americas in Q12025 [1], games are more affected by cultural barriers
4. Stronger physical attribute:
   Blind boxes have collection value, while digital games are more replaceable

####4.3 Potential Disadvantages and Risks

1. Shorter IP life cycle:
   Trendy toy IPs are naturally more prone to aesthetic fatigue than game IPs
2. Lower competitive barriers:
   Competitors like Miniso and TOP TOY are following up quickly [2]
3. Policy regulatory risks:
   EU’s Toy Safety Directive may increase compliance costs [1]
4. Overvaluation:
   Current P/E ratio is 35.53x [0], market capitalization is HK$265.9 billion [0], which already reflects high growth expectations

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####5.1 Established IP Incubation System

• Self-owned IP (85.3% of revenue):
  Molly, Labubu, Crybaby, Hirono, etc. [1]
• Exclusive IP (9.7%):
  PUCKY, Dimoo, etc., locking in scarce design resources [1]
• Non-exclusive IP (5%):
  Disney co-branded products to expand user coverage [1]

• New IPs like CRYBABY and HIRONO are rapidly growing into important performance drivers [1]
• Plan to incubate 10+ new IPs annually [1]
• The “Pop Mart Theme Park” in cooperation with Fantawild is expected to open in 2027, launching a new monetization model [1]

####5.2 Underlying Logic of IP Incubation Capability

Capability	Specific Performance	Comparison with Tencent Games
Designer ecosystem	Signed 9 artist IPs (e.g., Youyoujiang, Nommi Nuomi’er) [2]	Game producer training system
Data-driven	Members contribute92.7% of sales, average customer price is RMB230 [1]	User behavior data analysis
Supply chain response	Vietnam/Mexico factories put into production to reduce costs by25% [1]	Global layout of cloud servers/CDN
Channel control	401 direct stores + 2,300 robot stores [1]	App stores + self-owned channels

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####6.1 Multi-year Growth Logic

• Continued explosion of overseas markets (growth rate in Americas and Europe exceeds500%) [1]
• New category volume release (1,289% growth in plush toy revenue) [1]
• Institutions continue to raise target prices (Citi HK$308, Morgan Stanley HK$302) [1]

• Continuous expansion of IP matrix (incubate10+ new IPs annually) [1]
• Technology-enabled experience (AR trial, blockchain digital collectibles) [1]
• New monetization model of theme parks (opening in 2027) [1]
• Globalization of supply chain to reduce costs and increase efficiency

####6.2 Core Risk Warnings

1. Valuation risk:
   Current P/E ratio is 35.53x [0], facing valuation correction pressure if growth slows
2. IP life cycle risk:
   Labubu’s popularity may decline; need to prove that Molly’s evergreen ability can be replicated
3. Intensified competition:
   Competitors like Miniso are发力自有IP [2], which may lead to industry profit margin decline
4. Regulatory risk:
   Strict overseas toy safety regulations increase compliance costs [1]

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####7.1 Positive Factors

1. Verified IP operation capability:
   Molly’s 20-year evergreen status proves the company’s ability to manage IP life cycles
2. Systematic hit incubation mechanism:
   Labubu’s explosion is the result of “timing, location, and people”, not pure accident
3. Globalization exceeds expectations:
   900% growth in the Americas in Q12025 [1] proves IP’s cross-cultural appeal
4. Deepening moat:
   Self-owned IP accounts for 85.3% [1], global supply chain reduces costs by 25% [1]

####7.2 Factors to Be Verified

1. Long-term performance of Labubu:
   Need3-5 years to verify if it can replicate Molly’s 20-year evergreen status
2. Continuous hit capability of new IPs:
   Can Crybaby and Hirono take over Labubu as the next 1 billion-level IP?
3. Theme park monetization:
   Can the theme park opening in2027 open a second growth curve?
4. Competition response:
   How to maintain high profit margins under the attack of competitors like Miniso

####7.3 Final Judgment

• ✅
  Verified:
  IP incubation capability (Molly, Labubu), globalization capability, high profitability
• ⏳
  To be verified:
  Labubu’s 5+ year performance, continuous hit capability of new IPs, sustainability of competitive barriers
• ⚠️
  Risk points:
  Overvaluation, intensified competition, IP aesthetic fatigue

• Long-term investors:
  Can allocate strategically, but need to be alert to short-term fluctuations; suggest batch building positions
• Short-term investors:
  Current valuation already reflects high growth expectations; wait for correction opportunities
• Key indicators to watch:
  • Can Labubu’s revenue growth rate remain above50% in2025-2026?
  • Can new IPs like Crybaby and Hirono grow into 500 million-level IPs?
  • Can overseas revenue account for more than30% from18% in2024?
  • Progress and profit expectations of the theme park project

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• Top left:
  THE MONSTERS (Labubu) revenue exploded from RMB263 million in 2022 to RMB3.04 billion in 2024, growing 726.6% in2024
• Top right:
  Self-owned IP contributes 85.3% of revenue; core IPs include Molly, Labubu, Crybaby, Hirono
• Bottom left:
  Overseas market exploded in Q12025, with 900% growth in Americas and600% in Europe
• Bottom right:
  Stock price has increased by over200% since the beginning of2023 (as of 2025)

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[0] Gilin API Data - Pop Mart (9992.HK) Financial Data, Stock Performance, Company Overview

[1] Yahoo Finance - “Deep Analysis of Pop Mart’s Investment Value After Surpassing 200% Growth” (2025)
https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/深度分析泡泡瑪特爆升逾200-%25E5��投資價值-020500304.html

[2] Yahoo Finance - “Developing Self-owned IP: Can Miniso Replicate Pop Mart’s Explosive Growth Path?” (2025)
https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/發展自有ip-名創優品可褣制泡泡瑪特爆發之路-005222684.html

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This analysis is based on public data and brokerage API information and does not constitute investment advice. IP operation has uncertainties; it is recommended to continuously follow the company’s financial reports and IP market performance. For in-depth research mode, you can further analyze the company’s financial report details, competitor comparisons, industry prospects, etc.

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