Analysis of the Possibility of Spin-off and Listing of Baidu's Autonomous Driving Business

Let me analyze the possibility of spin-off and listing of Baidu’s autonomous driving business based on existing information:

• Baidu Apollo is a leading global provider of L4-level autonomous driving solutions [1]
• Has launched Robotaxi services with partners such as Geely and Tencent [1]
• Apollo Go’s order volume is expected to exceed 5 million in 2025, with revenue contribution rate expected to reach over 10% [1]
• As an important carrier for smart city applications, its potential market value is estimated to exceed 100 billion yuan [1]

• On December 7, Baidu Group issued an announcement confirming that it is evaluating the spin-off and independent listing of its AI chip company Kunlun Chip [2]
• Plans to submit an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as early as Q1 2026, targeting completion of IPO in early 2027 [2]
• Kunlun Chip’s latest valuation is about 21 billion yuan, with 2025 revenue far exceeding 2 billion yuan [2]
• Affected by this news, Baidu’s Hong Kong stock price rose by more than 7% intraday and closed with a gain of 5.01% on the same day [2]

• Spin-off helps focus on business and optimize resources [1]
• Allows the spun-off business to attract external capital more flexibly and accelerate product iteration [1]
• Achieve the synergy effect of “1+1>2” [1]

Factors	Analysis
Business Independence	Apollo has formed a complete autonomous driving ecosystem and has independent operation capabilities
Market Enthusiasm	The autonomous driving track is sought after by the capital market; spin-off can unlock potential value
Precedent Reference	Kunlun Chip’s spin-off provides a clear capitalization path for Apollo
Policy Support	Intelligent connected vehicles align with the national strategic development direction

Factors	Analysis
Profit Pressure	Large-scale commercialization of autonomous driving business still takes time
Regulatory Environment	Autonomous driving involves sensitive areas such as data security and traffic regulation
Competitive Landscape	Competitors like Huawei, Xpeng, NIO are also increasing their investment in autonomous driving
Technology Iteration	L4-level autonomous driving technology is not yet fully mature

• Analysts generally favor the value of Baidu’s core business; the current consensus target price is $160, with a 28.2% upside from the current price [0]
• 74.5% of analysts give a “Buy” rating [0]
• J.P. Morgan upgraded Baidu’s rating to “Overweight” in November 2025 [0]

• If Apollo business can be spun off independently, it is expected to unlock the undervalued business value
• Referring to the market reaction to Kunlun Chip’s spin-off, investors hold a positive attitude towards Baidu’s business restructuring

Time Frame	Possibility	Reason
Short-term (2025-2026)	Low	Baidu prioritizes Kunlun Chip’s spin-off; Apollo has no official spin-off plan yet
Medium-term (2026-2027)	Medium	Depends on the progress of Kunlun Chip’s spin-off and Apollo’s commercial performance
Long-term (after 2027)	High	After autonomous driving technology matures, Apollo will meet the conditions for independent listing

1. Monitor the progress of Kunlun Chip’s spin-off and capital market reactions
2. Track the order growth of Apollo Go services and improvement in profitability
3. Pay attention to changes in Baidu management’s statements on Apollo’s strategic positioning
4. Monitor the evolution of domestic and international autonomous driving regulatory policies

In the short term, the main catalysts for Baidu’s stock price come from the expectation of Kunlun Chip’s spin-off and the continuous growth of AI cloud business. In the medium to long term, the unlocking of Apollo’s independent value will become an important driver for Baidu’s valuation re-rating. Investors are advised to closely follow relevant developments and seize investment opportunities brought by valuation repair.

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This analysis is based on public information and market expectations; the actual spin-off plan may be adjusted due to factors such as regulatory approval and changes in market environment.

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[1] [Chu Qi Zhi Sheng] Baidu’s Valuation Repair Trend Is Expected to Continue. Hong Kong Wen Wei Po. https://www.wenweipo.com/a/202512/07/AP6935439ee4b0350143d6fbe6.html

[2] Baidu Kunlun Chip’s IPO Journey: Revenue Outperforms Peers, Why Is Valuation Only a Fraction? Sina Finance. https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2025-12-17/doc-inhcfkvi8484736.shtml