In-depth Analysis of the Lithium Carbonate Hedging Loss Case of Jiangte Motor

Based on the above information collection and analysis, we now present the

:

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According to public reports, Jiangte Motor (stock code: 002176) established short positions in the lithium carbonate futures market for hedging. However, due to continuous sharp price increases of lithium carbonate in December 2024, the futures positions incurred significant losses

. The company’s announcement shows that the confirmed profit and loss and floating loss of this futures transaction have exceeded 10 million yuan, reaching more than 10% of the audited net profit in the recent year .

Core Indicator	Data	Interpretation of Meaning
Main Contract Position Volume	647,400 lots	High market participation, fierce capital game
Daily Inflow Capital	1.3 billion yuan	Incremental capital continues to flow in, pushing up prices
Closing Price on December 24	124,720 yuan/ton	Hit a new annual high, up more than 20% from the beginning of the month
Social Inventory	24,000 tons	Hit a new low since the futures were listed
Weekly Inventory Reduction	1,044 tons	Declined for 13 consecutive weeks, tight supply-demand balance

:

• Lithium mica mining rights in Yichun area were cancelled, leading to an expectation gap on the supply side
  [2]
• The expected resumption of CATL’s Jianxiawo Mine has been delayed to June 2025
  [2]
• Prices of spodumene and mica ore rose by 8% and 8.8% respectively
  [2]

:

• The global energy storage market is expected to maintain a 50% growth rate in 2026
  [1]
• Domestic battery production (power + energy storage + consumer) reached 220 GWh in December, up 5.3% month-on-month
  [1]
• Adjustments to new energy vehicle subsidy policies drive demand growth

According to the theory of futures market position structure, a healthy hedging market should maintain a

. Taking LME metal futures as a reference, the ideal proportion of commercial positions (industrial hedging positions) should be between .

Position Type	Actual Proportion	Theoretical Reasonable Range	Deviation Analysis
Industrial Hedging Positions (Commercial Positions)	About 35%	40%-60%	⚠️ Low
Speculative Capital (Non-commercial Positions)	About 55%	30%-50%	⚠️ High
Other Capital	About 10%	5%-15%	Normal

: The proportion of industrial hedging positions is low, while the proportion of speculative capital is too high, leading the market to show typical characteristics . In this case, Jiangte Motor’s short hedging strategy is completely opposite to the direction of the market’s main capital.

• Core Problem
  : Established short exposure against the background of tight supply-demand balance and continuous inventory decline
• Data Support
  : Lithium carbonate social inventory declined for 13 consecutive weeks, with a cumulative reduction of 22,000 tons
  [2]
• Result
  : Price rose from about 110,000 yuan/ton at the initial stage of hedging to 124,700 yuan/ton, with a maximum daily increase of 5.89%
  [1]

• Core Problem
  : The size of short positions exceeds actual hedging needs
• Theoretical Basis
  : According to LME futures position structure analysis, the hedging ratio of industrial customers should strictly match the spot exposure
  [3]
• Result
  : Futures losses not only failed to hedge spot risks but also increased financial pressure

• Core Problem
  : Failed to timely identify the following bullish factors:
  1. Explosive growth of the energy storage market (China’s new energy storage installation increased by 120% annually)
     [1]
  2. Supply contraction of lithium mica ore
     [2]
  3. Environmental rectification of salt lakes leads to reduced imports
• Result
  : Established reverse positions on the eve of price surge

• Core Problem
  : The hedging strategy was “unchanged” and not adjusted according to market changes
• Professional Analysis
  : Mature hedging should adopt “rolling hedging” or “ratio hedging” strategies
  [3]
• Result
  : Failed to stop losses or adjust direction in time when the market trend was completely opposite to expectations

• Core Problem
  : Information disclosure was delayed, and the loss exceeded 10 million yuan before reaching the disclosure standard
  [1]
• Risk Control Defects
  :
  • Lack of strict stop-loss mechanism
  • No reasonable upper limit on hedging ratio set
  • Risk monitoring indicators are not perfect

Recommended Monitoring Indicators:
├── Commercial Position Ratio (Target:40%-60%)
├── Non-commercial Net Long Position Ratio (Warning Line:>60%)
├── Position Concentration (Proportion of Top5 Seats)
└── Turnover-Position Ratio (Speculation Index, Target:<1.5)

Strategy Type	Applicable Scenario	Operation Method
Rolling Hedging	Clear Price Trend	Roll over monthly to match spot cycle
Ratio Hedging	High Volatility	Hedging Ratio=0.6-0.8, incomplete hedging
Option Substitution	Extreme Market Conditions	Buy put options to limit losses

• Stop-loss Line Setting
  : Trigger stop-loss when futures loss reaches 30% of margin
• Proportion Upper Limit
  : Futures hedging scale does not exceed 80% of spot exposure
• Dynamic Monitoring
  : Evaluate hedging effect daily, warn when deviation from target exceeds 5%
• Information Disclosure
  : Initiate internal warning when loss reaches 5 million yuan

Jiangte Motor’s case reflects the common predicament of traditional lithium salt enterprises in the downward phase of the industry cycle

:

1. Business Level
   : Lithium salt segment has “increasing revenue but no profit”, with gross margin dropping to -16.27% in H1 2025
   [1]
2. Strategic Level
   : Attempted to quickly turn losses around through the futures market, deviating from the core principle of hedging
3. Risk Control Level
   : Turned hedging into speculation, lacking a professional futures risk management team

: The essence of hedging is to “hedge risks” rather than “pursue profits”. When the market trend is clear, enterprises should follow the trend instead of going against it. At the same time, a scientific position structure monitoring system and dynamic risk control mechanism must be established.

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[1] 7hcn.com - Too Stubborn! He Shorted Lithium Carbonate in a Surge and Lost Millions!

[2] CCB Futures - Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report December 19, 2025

[3] Jinrui Futures - Non-ferrous Metals Daily Report 2025-12-25

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The chart includes four analysis dimensions:

1. Price Trend and Loss Area
   : Intuitively shows the expansion of losses from shorting strategies during price increases
2. Position Structure Pie Chart
   : Reveals market characteristics of low commercial positions and dominant speculative capital
3. Inventory Decline Trend
   : Reflects supply tightening under tight supply-demand balance
4. Strategy Evaluation Radar Chart
   : Evaluates the shortcomings of Jiangte Motor’s hedging strategy from five dimensions