In-depth Analysis of Commercialization Gaps Between Baidu and Waymo's Autonomous Driving

Based on collected data, I will conduct an in-depth analysis of the commercialization gaps between Baidu’s autonomous driving and Waymo from multiple dimensions.

Indicator	Baidu Apollo Go	Waymo	Gap Multiple
Cumulative Ride-Hailing Trips	17 million trips (as of Nov 2025)[2]	~100 million miles /14M+ trips (2025)[1]	Waymo leads by ~8x
Operating Cities	22 (China)[2]	26 markets[2]	Similar
Weekly Paid Rides	Not Disclosed	450k trips (Dec 2025)[1]	Waymo significantly leads
Annualized Revenue	Not Disclosed	$350 million[1]	-
Sensor Cost per Vehicle	Not Disclosed	$12,650[1]	-
Custom Vehicle Cost	$37,000[3]	Not Disclosed	Baidu is lower
Rate	2.8 CNY/km[3]	~$20.43/mile[1]	Waymo’s cost is significantly higher

Waymo showed strong growth momentum in 2025[1]:

• Explosive Growth in Ride Volume
  : From 150k weekly paid rides at the end of 2024 to 250k in April 2025, then to
  450k weekly rides
  in December 2025—almost doubling in eight months
• Milestone Achievement
  : Reached
  100 million miles
  of fully autonomous driving in July 2025, accumulating an industry-leading moat of safety and reliability data
• Revenue Scale
  : Annualized revenue run rate exceeded
  $350 million
  , proving that the Robotaxi model has moved from the experimental phase to the commercializable phase
• Valuation Potential
  : Reportedly, Waymo is conducting a financing round with a valuation exceeding
  $10 billion
  [4]

However, Waymo still faces huge losses. The Alphabet “Other Bets” segment it belongs to

[1], reflecting the high-investment and high-risk nature of the industry.

Baidu Apollo Go’s commercialization shows different characteristics[2][3]:

• Solid Domestic Foundation
  : Completed over 17 million rides in 22 cities; a 10km trip in Wuhan and other places costs only 4-16 CNY ($0.60-$2.30)
• Lagging Overseas Layout
  : Originally planned large-scale overseas expansion in 2024-2025, but progress was not as expected
• Cooperation Breakthrough
  : Reached partnerships with Uber and Lyft in December 2025, planning to launch pilot projects in London in the first half of 2026[2]

Baidu’s core challenges are:

• International market concerns about data security and regulatory compliance
• Compared to Waymo’s first-mover advantage in the U.S. market, Baidu lacks overseas operation experience
• Brand awareness and trust building take time

Cost Item	Baidu Apollo Go	Waymo
Hardware Sensors	Not Disclosed	$12,650/vehicle[1]
Vehicle Cost	$37,000[3]	Not Disclosed
Operating Cost per Mile	~$0.40/km	~$20.43/mile[1]

: Waymo’s cost per mile ($20.43) is much higher than Baidu’s ($0.40/km), mainly due to:

1. Waymo uses expensive LiDAR sensor kits
2. Insufficient initial scale leads to higher marginal costs
3. High R&D and safety verification investments

• Waymo
  : Despite rapid revenue growth ($350 million annualized), it still loses over $1 billion per quarter, far from profitability
• Baidu
  : Apollo business is not disclosed separately, but as part of Baidu’s “Other Bets” business, it is expected to continue losing money

Common challenges for both:

Dimension	Baidu Apollo	Waymo	Analysis
Autonomous Driving Mileage	17 million rides	100 million miles[1]	Waymo leads by ~5x
Technical Route	Multi-sensor fusion	Multi-sensor fusion	Similar
Data Accumulation	China-focused	26 markets	Waymo is more globalized
Cost Control	$37,000 vehicle cost	$12,650 sensor cost/vehicle	Baidu has lower vehicle costs

Waymo’s

advantage is obvious: 100 million miles of real-road data provides valuable resources for algorithm iteration, which is difficult to replicate in the short term.

• Market Cap
  : $42.3 billion, up 50.91% cumulatively in 2025
• P/E Ratio
  : 10.52x (significantly lower than Alphabet’s 30.50x)
• Analyst Consensus
  : Buy (target price $160, 28% premium over current price)
• Autonomous Driving Position
  : As a core “second growth curve”, but contributes limited to overall valuation

• Market Cap
  : $3.78 trillion, up 65.50% cumulatively in 2025
• P/E Ratio
  : 30.50x
• Waymo Valuation
  : Potential $100 billion+ (independent valuation)
• Autonomous Driving Position
  : Strategic bet, continues to invest even with losses

:

• Low valuation (10.5x P/E), sufficient safety margin
• First-mover advantage in China’s Robotaxi market
• Partnerships with Uber and Lyft create overseas growth opportunities

:

• Slow overseas progress, questionable international competitiveness
• Unclear profit path for autonomous driving business
• Core search business faces competitive pressure from ByteDance

:

• Waymo’s leading commercialization progress forms a positive cycle
• Strong cash flow supports continuous investment
• Deep technical moat

:

• Waymo continues to lose money, burning over $1 billion per quarter
• Regulatory and safety risks (e.g., San Francisco power outage incident in December 2025)
• High valuation requires better-than-expected growth to support

From the perspective of operating cost per kilometer and commercialization progress,

, but neither has achieved profitability. Baidu has established a solid foundation in the domestic market, but faces multiple challenges such as data security, brand awareness, and regulatory compliance when expanding overseas. In the long run, competition in autonomous driving will focus on ; whoever breaks through first in these dimensions will win in the Robotaxi track.

[1] Forbes - “Google Stock’s $100 Billion Bet You’re Ignoring” (2025-12-22)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2025/12/22/google-stocks-100-billion-bet-youre-ignoring/

[2] Wall Street Journal - “Uber, Lyft Tie Up With Baidu for U.K. Robotaxi Tests Next Year” (2025-12-22)
https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/uber-lyft-tie-up-with-baidu-for-u-k-robotaxi-tests-next-year-5f093333

[3] Forbes - “Baidu Begins Paid Robotaxi Service In China With No Employee Aboard” (2022-08-07)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2022/08/07/baidu-begins-paid-robotaxi-service-in-china-with-no-employee-aboard/

[4] Yahoo Finance - “A New $5.6 Billion Injection Hasn’t Made Waymo Cheaper” (2024-11-11)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-6-billion-injection-hasnt-142440151.html

[5] CNBC - “Uber, Lyft set to trial robotaxis in the UK in partnership with China’s Baidu” (2025-12-22)
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/22/uber-lyft-set-to-trial-robotaxis-uk-in-partnership-chinas-baidu.html