In-depth Analysis of Nationalization Obstacles and Regional Dependency Risks of Gujing Gongjiu

The biggest structural risk currently facing Gujing Gongjiu is its extremely concentrated regional revenue distribution. According to the 2025 semi-annual report data, the company’s revenue from Central China accounts for as high as

of total revenue, with the Anhui Province and surrounding markets occupying an absolute dominant position [1]. This “dominance by one region” market pattern means the company is highly sensitive to the economic environment, consumption trends, and competitive situation of a single region. In sharp contrast, Shanxi Fenjiu’s revenue from outside its home province has remained stable at over 60%, which can effectively resist regional market fluctuations through balanced national market layout [1].

Gujing Gongjiu has continued to promote nationalization layout for years, but with little effect. In the first half of 2025, revenue in North China dropped by

year-on-year, and in South China by [1]. In comparison, Yanghe Co., Ltd.'s Tianzhilan and Mengzhilan have achieved nationwide coverage without gaps, while National Cellar 1573, Jiannanchun, and Wuliangye also have national core products [3]. This indicates that Gujing Gongjiu still has significant deficiencies in brand awareness and channel penetration in省外 markets.

In the first three quarters of 2025, Gujing Gongjiu’s total revenue reached , down 13.87% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was , down 16.57% year-on-year. This is the first double-digit negative growth report card the company has handed over after years of positive growth [1].

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The liquor industry has a saying: “Do not enter Anhui from the east, do not enter Sichuan from the west”, and the Anhui market has formed a solid entry barrier due to its uniqueness [3]. On one hand, local famous liquors are “competing for dominance”, and Gujing has firmly坐稳 the throne of “Anhui Liquor No.1” with overwhelming advantages—its revenue in the first three quarters of 2025 far exceeded that of Yingjia Gongjiu (4.51 billion yuan), Kouzijiao (3.17 billion yuan), and Golden Seed (627 million yuan) [1]. On the other hand, Anhui consumers have formed a deep-rooted preference for “trusting local liquors and favoring low-alcohol strong aroma”, which is both a “moat” for Gujing and a constraint on its nationalization expansion [3].

Gujing Gongjiu has long relied on high sales expenses to drive growth. In the first three quarters of 2025, sales expenses reached

, which even exceeded that of Kweichow Moutai with over 100 billion yuan in revenue, and the sales expense ratio was as high as [1][2]. This “heavy marketing, light profit” model directly pulls down the net profit margin. Although huge investments have established a solid advantage in the Central China market, they also make the marginal benefit of省外 expansion递减.

Gujing’s high-endization path is struggling. The company’s only truly recognized “hard currency” is Gu 20, but this product can only enter the mid-to-high-end camp. In the national high-end camp, Gu 20 neither has the brand weight of Moutai or Wuliangye nor the cost-performance advantage, falling into an awkward situation of “neither high nor low” [3].

There is a price inversion problem on the channel side, leading to low willingness of dealers to make payments. New channels like “liquor shops” have not yet formed effective support and face supply chain and scale challenges [3].

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Risk Dimension	Indicator Performance	Risk Level
Revenue Concentration	Central China accounted for >85%	🔴 High
Growth Rate Outside Home Province	North China -27%, South China -6%	🔴 High
Cost Efficiency	Sales expense ratio 27%	🟠 Medium-High
Performance Volatility	Double-digit decline in revenue/profit	🔴 High
Channel Health	Price inversion, inventory backlog	🟠 Medium-High

From the perspective of financial indicators, the company’s current P/E ratio is

, lower than the industry average; ROE is , net profit margin is . The overall financial situation is acceptable, but the structural problem of regional risk is suppressing the valuation [0].

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In response to over-reliance on the Central China market, a differentiated strategy is recommended: implement refined operations in the Anhui base market to increase single-customer value; for省外 expansion, learn from Fenjiu’s “City Living Room” model, build experience centers integrating product display, cultural experience, and customer service in core cities, realizing the transformation from “product sales” to “cultural identity” [1][2].

Transform from “inventory pressure type” to “sales-driven type”, introduce digital management tools, refer to National Cellar 1573’s “quota determined by bottle opening” model, and shift dealer assessment from payment amount to actual bottle opening quantity. At the same time, build a direct e-commerce platform for enterprises to reach end consumers directly and reduce the impact of intermediate links on the price system [1][2].

It is necessary to weaken the controversial label of “Vintage Original Liquor” and shift to the international narrative of “Chinese Brewing · World Fragrance”. Through年轻化 means like intangible cultural heritage co-branding, low-alcoholization, and metaverse tasting sessions, let the brand evolve from a “functional carrier” to a “meaning carrier”, providing premium space for high-endization and nationalization [1][2].

Shift from “high investment” to “precision and efficiency”, drastically reduce traditional advertising expenditures with low cost performance, and focus sales expenses on terminal sales and cultural construction. For online channels, it is necessary to target young consumer groups, attract Generation Z through “liquor knowledge popularization” and “brewing process live broadcasts” on short video platforms, and launch innovative products like small bottles and low-alcohol versions [1].

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[1] Eastmoney.com - Gujing Gongjiu’s 2025 Performance Under Pressure: Breakthrough Path Amid Multiple Dilemmas (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20251126100313208297400)

[2] OFweek Vekoo - Gujing Gongjiu’s 2025 Performance Under Pressure: Breakthrough Path Amid Multiple Dilemmas (https://mp.ofweek.com/finance/a956714239507)

[3] CNfol.com - Chaotic Price System, Nationalization Obstacles, High-endization Difficulties: How Can Gujing Achieve the 30 Billion Yuan Target? (http://mp.cnfol.com/42086/article/1766800626-142187695)