China National Gold (SH600489) Investment Value Analysis Report

As one of China’s largest gold producers, China National Gold shows strong investment appeal against the backdrop of repeated record highs in international gold prices. Based on the DCF valuation model, the company’s current stock price of $23.44 has an upside potential of approximately

compared to its probability-weighted intrinsic value of $32.46 [0]. However, considering the technical side is in a sideways consolidation phase and valuations have partially reflected gold price rise expectations, investors are advised to adopt an investment strategy of .

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China National Gold Group Co., Ltd. is a leading enterprise in China’s gold industry, with main businesses including gold mining, beneficiation and smelting, sales, and mine design. According to the latest data, the company’s total market capitalization reaches

, belonging to the large-cap blue-chip category in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets [0].

In terms of stock price performance, China National Gold showed a strong upward trend in 2025:

Time Period	Increase
Year-to-Date (YTD)	+90.57%
Past 6 months	+61.99%
Past 3 months	+14.06%
Past 1 month	+5.87%
1-year increase	+93.24%

This performance significantly outperforms the broader market indices, fully reflecting the positive boost of rising gold prices on the company’s valuation. The company’s Beta coefficient is

, meaning its stock price volatility is lower than the overall market, showing certain defensive characteristics [0].

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The gold market witnessed a historic trend in 2025. As of December, the gold price has

, breaking through intraday, with an annual increase of up to , which is expected to be the best annual performance since 1979 [1][2]. Many investment banks such as Goldman Sachs predict that the gold price may reach in 2026 [2].

1. Geopolitical risks
   : Tensions in the global situation increase the safe-haven demand for gold
2. Central bank gold purchases
   : Central banks around the world continue to buy gold ETFs in large quantities
3. Monetary policy shift
   : The market expects the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates, and the interest rate environment is favorable for gold
4. Currency depreciation trading
   : Investors are skeptical about the value of sovereign debt currencies and turn to gold for preservation

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Financial Indicator	Value	Evaluation
ROE (Return on Equity)	15.61%	Good
Net Profit Margin	6.02%	Stable
Operating Profit Margin	10.20%	Healthy
P/E Ratio	25.70x	Moderate
P/B Ratio	3.89x	Slightly High

The company’s profitability remains stable, with ROE reaching 15.61%, which is at the upper-middle level in the industry [0].

• Financial Attitude
  : Neutral, balanced accounting policies [0]
• Debt Risk
  : Low risk, sound financial structure [0]
• Current Ratio
  : 1.32 → Good short-term solvency [0]
• Quick Ratio
  : 0.68 → Need to pay attention to inventory turnover

The latest annual free cash flow (FCF) is approximately

, with strong cash flow generation capacity, providing financial support for the company’s sustainable development [0].

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According to technical analysis results, China National Gold is currently in a

, with no clear trend signal [0].

Indicator	Value	Signal
MACD	No crossover	Bullish
KDJ	K:65.8, D:70.1, J:57.1	Bearish Bias
RSI(14)	Normal range	Neutral

• Support Level
  : $22.72
• Resistance Level
  : $23.86
• Current Price
  : $23.44

The current stock price is between the support and resistance levels. Investors are advised to pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips near $22.72 [0].

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Using the DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) model to evaluate the company’s intrinsic value, the three scenario analyses are as follows [0]:

Scenario	Intrinsic Value	Relative to Current Price	Assumptions
Conservative Scenario	$21.19	-9.6%	Zero growth, higher discount rate
Base Scenario	$28.62	+22.1%	8.1% revenue growth, 10% EBITDA margin
Optimistic Scenario	$47.56	+102.9%	11.1% growth, low discount rate

• Probability-Weighted Value
  : $32.46 (upside potential
  +38.5%
  )
• WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital)
  : 8.3%
• Beta Coefficient
  : 0.65

Based on the base scenario, the company’s current stock price is discounted by approximately 22% compared to its intrinsic value, showing a certain margin of safety. However, it should be noted that the conservative scenario shows the stock price may be overvalued by nearly 10%, indicating that the market has partially reflected the gold price rise expectations [0].

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:

1. International gold prices continue to rise, benefiting the company’s performance
2. DCF valuation shows an upside potential of approximately 22%-38%
3. As an industry leader, the company has resource reserve advantages
4. Capital continues to flow into gold ETFs, benefiting the entire gold sector

:

1. If gold prices correct, it will put pressure on the stock price
2. The current stock price is already at a relatively high level, with high chasing risks
3. The technical side is in sideways consolidation, with unclear short-term direction
4. A P/E ratio of 25.7x is at a relatively high level in the industry

1. Position Building Timing
   : Wait for the stock price to pull back to near the $22.72 support level and build positions in batches
2. Position Control
   : It is recommended to allocate no more than 30%-40% of the gold sector position
3. Profit-Taking Target
   : First target at $28.62 (corresponding to DCF base valuation)
4. Stop-Loss Setting
   : Consider reducing positions if it effectively breaks below the $22.72 support level

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As a leader in China’s gold industry, China National Gold has certain investment value amid repeated record highs in gold prices. DCF valuation shows the company has a

, with a sound financial condition and healthy cash flow. However, considering the technical side is in sideways consolidation and valuations have partially reflected favorable factors, investors are advised and adopt a strategy of , holding medium- to long-term to gain benefits from rising gold prices.

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[0] 金灵AI金融数据库 - 中金黄金(600489.SS)实时报价、财务分析、技术分析与DCF估值数据

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