Analysis of Investment Value of Gold Stocks Amid Record-High International Gold Prices

Based on the above comprehensive data collection and analysis, the following is a systematic analysis of the investment value of gold stocks amid record-high international gold prices:

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The gold market experienced an epic rally in 2025. As of December 24,

, setting the fourth-highest annual growth record for gold since 1971 [1]. Spot gold hit a record high 54 times throughout the year, while silver prices broke a record high 47 times; silver and platinum rose by over 140%, and palladium rose by over 100% [2].

The current gold pricing logic has undergone a profound transformation, shifting from the traditional anchoring of “real interest rates” and “US dollar index” to a diversified pricing system centered on “fiat currency credit hedging” [3]. Key driving factors include:

• Central bank gold buying spree
  : Amid the global “de-dollarization” trend, central banks continue to increase their gold reserves
• Fed rate cut cycle
  : Loose liquidity supports gold prices
• Geopolitical risks
  : Increased uncertainty in international trade situations
• Surge in investment demand
  : Gold ETF holdings continue to grow

Many international institutions are optimistic about gold prices in 2026 [3]:

• Goldman Sachs
  : Predicts gold prices will reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026
• JPMorgan Chase
  : Expects gold prices to reach $5,055 in Q4 2026 and hit $5,400 by the end of 2027
• UBS
  : Predicts gold prices will rise to $4,500 by mid-2026

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In the first three quarters of 2025,

; all companies in the sector achieved positive year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit [2]. Gold enterprises showed a positive trend of rising production volume and prices.

As of the end of the third quarter, the

(calculated based on a gold price of $3,700 per ounce), while the historical average valuation of gold mining companies is about 20 times; thus, [2].

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Indicator	Value	Evaluation
Current stock price	33.53 CNY	-
YTD growth	120.88%	Highest among the three
Market capitalization	889.65 billion CNY	Industry leader
P/E	19.51x	Lowest among the three
P/B	5.30x	Reasonable
ROE	30.60%	Significantly leading
Net profit margin	13.91%	Outstanding profitability

: Zijin Mining is in an upward trend, and technical indicators show a [0]. MACD is in a bullish arrangement, and KDJ indicators are bullish. Short-term resistance level is $33.77, next target is $34.81, and support level is $31.72.

: The company adopts conservative accounting policies, has abundant free cash flow, and a sound financial position [0]. Its revenue reached 86.49 billion CNY in Q3 2025, showing strong growth momentum.

Indicator	Value	Evaluation
Current stock price	23.44 CNY	-
YTD growth	90.57%	Excellent performance
Market capitalization	113.62 billion CNY	Medium scale
P/E	25.70x	Moderate
P/B	3.89x	Lowest among the three
ROE	15.61%	Good
Liquidity	1.32	Strong short-term solvency

: Lowest P/B ratio, indicating a high asset safety margin; best liquidity ratio, low short-term financial risk.

Indicator	Value	Evaluation
Current stock price	39.70 CNY	-
YTD growth	71.49%	Follows gold price increases
Market capitalization	183.01 billion CNY	Large gold mining enterprise
P/E	37.80x	High valuation
P/B	6.02x	High
ROE	13.00%	Average

: Both P/E and P/B valuations are the highest among the three; valuation digestion requires stronger performance growth support. Liquidity ratio is low (0.53), so short-term solvency needs attention.

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The current upward logic of gold stocks is no longer limited to short-term trading opportunities brought by rising gold prices, but is reflected in the

[2]. Key investment logics include:

1. Rising production volume and prices
   : Gold price increases combined with production expansion lead to significant elasticity on the revenue side
2. Valuation recovery
   : Current PE is lower than historical average, with room for upward recovery
3. Davis Double
   : Synchronous improvement in performance and valuation
4. Leader premium
   : Listing of leaders like Zijin Mining in Hong Kong increases market attention

Priority	Stock	Core Logic	Risk Reminder
★★★★★	Zijin Mining	Low valuation + high growth + strong profitability; has both elasticity and safety margin	Large previous growth; possible short-term adjustment
★★★★☆	China National Gold Group	Low P/B + high liquidity; high cost-effectiveness	Relatively small resource reserves
★★★☆☆	Shandong Gold	Pure gold target; high elasticity	High valuation; tight liquidity

:

• Mid-to-long-term allocation
  : Gold price center is still expected to rise; it is recommended to deploy in batches on dips [4]
• Diversified allocation
  : Consider gold fund ETF (518800) for direct investment in physical gold, and gold stock ETF (517400) to cover the entire industry chain
• Dollar-cost averaging strategy
  : It is recommended to adopt a fixed investment or increase allocation on dips strategy to downplay short-term fluctuations [3]

:

• Short-term gold price fluctuation risk (possible correction of over 10%)
• Fed rate cut expectation reversals
• Capital outflows caused by institutional portfolio rebalancing
• Valuation recovery falls short of expectations

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The above chart shows a comprehensive comparative analysis of the three core gold stocks in December 2025:

1. YTD return comparison
   : Zijin Mining leads with 120.88%, followed by China National Gold Group (90.57%) and Shandong Gold (71.49%); all significantly outperformed the gold price increase of about 68%
2. Valuation comparison
   : Zijin Mining has the lowest P/E (19.5x), China National Gold Group is in the middle (25.7x), and Shandong Gold is the highest (37.8x)
3. Profitability
   : Zijin Mining’s ROE (30.6%) and net profit margin (13.9%) are significantly leading
4. Cost-effectiveness analysis
   : Zijin Mining is in the best investment area of “high returns, low valuation”

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Against the backdrop of

, the investment value of gold stocks is significant. Key conclusions are as follows:

1. Upward industry trend
   : Gold price center is still expected to rise; it is recommended to deploy in batches on dips
2. Significant stock differentiation
   : Zijin Mining becomes the best choice with low valuation, high growth, and strong profitability; China National Gold Group has outstanding cost-effectiveness; Shandong Gold’s valuation needs to be digested
3. Valuation recovery room
   : Current PE of gold stocks is generally lower than the historical average of 20 times, with significant room for upward recovery
4. Allocation recommendations
   : It is recommended to focus on
   Zijin Mining (601899)
   , allocate moderately to
   China National Gold Group (600489)
   , and deploy on dips to
   Shandong Gold (600547)

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[1] Securities Times - “Spot Gold Soars Nearly 68% This Year; Three Logics Support Gold’s New Narrative to the ‘Midfield’” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3552617.html)

[2] Eastmoney - “[Financial Analysis] How Far Can the Precious Metals Bull Market Go in 2026?” (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202512253601997273.html)

[3] FastBull - “Annual Gold Price Forecast: Record Growth in 2025 and Analysis of Multiple Paths in 2026” (https://m.fastbull.com/cn/news-detail/4362093_1)

[4] National Business Daily - “Focus on Investment Opportunities in Gold Fund ETF (518800); Market Focuses on Rate Cut Expectations and Central Bank Gold Buying Trend” (https://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2025-12-24/4193184.html)

[0] Jinling AI Financial Database - Market Data and Company Analysis