A-Share Grain and Oil Companies Analysis: Import Dependence Impact and Investment Strategy

The following analysis is based solely on the obtained tool data and verifiable information. Detailed quantitative conclusions on macro impacts such as trade frictions and geopolitical pattern changes are not included in this report for now due to the unavailability of usable news/search sources, and will be updated if necessary after further data supplementation.

Core Points (Based on Tool Data):

• Yihai Kerry Arawana (300999.SZ): Stock price has been under pressure in the past year, but it has the largest revenue scale and stable cash flow; latest quarterly revenue fell short of market expectations.
• Beidahuang (600598.SS): High net profit margin and ROE levels, stable stock price performance in the past year, strong defensive attributes.
• Suken Agricultural Development (601952.SS): Financially healthy with abundant liquidity, but both revenue and profit have weakened recently.

China’s Soybean Import Dependence Pattern and Industrial Chain Position

• China is the world’s largest soybean importer with extremely high import dependence. Downstream crushing and oil processing enterprises have significant external dependence and are vulnerable to international supply pattern, logistics, and policy disturbances.
• Industrial Chain Transmission Logic (Mechanistic Explanation, No Specific Data or Conclusions):
  • Upstream: International supply concentration (high proportion from the US and Brazil) and trade policies/tariffs/shipping risks will pressure soybean CIF costs and procurement rhythms.
  • Midstream: For crushing and refining enterprises, procurement bargaining power and inventory management capabilities are key; cost fluctuations and inventory cycles affect gross profit stability.
  • Downstream: Packaged edible oil and grain and oil food enterprises diversify cost fluctuations through brand, product structure, price transmission, and channel coverage; C-end rigid demand and brand premium provide certain defensive properties.
• Impact Path of Soybean Import Dependence on the Industrial Chain (Mechanistic):
  • Cost Side: If international supply tightens or trade environment changes, it may lead to cost increases or procurement rhythm adjustments, affecting the profit margins of crushing and oil processing enterprises.
  • Supply Side: Import fluctuations or policy adjustments may affect raw material arrival rhythms and increase inventory management difficulty.
  • Policy Side: Tariffs, reserve releases, alternative oil/protein strategies, etc., will change enterprises’ cost structures and competitive landscapes.
  • Valuation Side: Geopolitical and policy uncertainties usually increase risk premiums and suppress sector valuation elasticity.

A-Share Grain and Oil Representative Companies Comparison (Based on Tool Data [0]):

1. Yihai Kerry Arawana (300999.SZ)

• Market Position: Comprehensive leader in packaged edible oil and rice/noodles, covering oilseed crushing and refining.
• Financials and Performance [0]:
  • 2025-10-31: Revenue of 685.9 hundred million USD, lower than market estimate (759.6 hundred million USD); EPS of 0.18 USD (lower than estimate of 0.21 USD).
  • TTM: Net profit margin of 1.54%, ROE of 4.02%, P/E of 41.33x.
• Risk Points: High valuation but low profit margin; profit side sensitive to cost fluctuations; gross profit under pressure when import dependence and cost transmission are not smooth.
• Opportunity Points: Scale and channel advantages help hedge cost fluctuations; multi-category and brand coverage provide certain defensive properties.

2. Beidahuang (600598.SS)

• Market Position: Focused on upstream planting, with strong land resources and brand power.
• Financials and Performance [0]:
  • TTM: High net profit margin and ROE levels; stable stock price performance in the past year, strong defensive attributes.
  • Past 1-year stock price performance: +0.53%, 3-year +6.40%, year-to-date +6.18%.
• Risk Points: Planting sector highly dependent on climate, policies, grain purchase and storage, and subsidies; different cost transmission paths from downstream crushing links.
• Opportunity Points: High profit margin and stable operation; stronger resilience under uncertainty.

3. Suken Agricultural Development (601952.SS)

• Market Position: Integration of planting and processing, with both raw material and processing capabilities.
• Financials and Performance [0]:
  • 2025-10-29: Revenue of 22.2 hundred million USD, EPS of 0.07 USD; recent revenue and profit have weakened sequentially.
  • TTM: Net profit margin of5.62%, ROE of8.44%, P/E of21.89x.
• Risk Points: Recent decline in earnings and revenue indicates cost or price pressure.
• Opportunity Points: Integrated layout can form a certain buffer between raw material and processing links; relatively reasonable valuation.

Investment Value from the Perspective of “Import Dependence” (Mechanistic Deduction Based on Above Company Facts):

• Cost Transmission and Pricing Power: Downstream brand leaders (e.g., Yihai Kerry Arawana) have channels and brands to adjust terminal prices to a certain extent; but gross profit is still vulnerable to squeeze in price-restricted environments.
• Supply Security and Inventory Management: Upstream planting enterprises (Beidahuang, Suken) have relatively low import dependence and are more affected by domestic policies and climate.
• Policy and Substitution: Domestic initiatives to promote diversified imports and protein substitution are expected to improve the medium-to-long-term supply structure, but implementation progress and effects need to be tracked.
• Valuation and Performance Matching: Yihai Kerry Arawana has high valuation but low profit margin; Beidahuang and Suken have moderate valuations, but Beidahuang has better earnings while Suken’s recent earnings are under pressure.

Risk Tips (Mechanistic):

• International Supply and Trade Frictions: The higher the import dependence, the more direct the transmission of external supply uncertainty to the domestic industrial chain.
• Price Regulation and Transmission Barriers: If policies limit prices or competition is fierce, enterprises’ cost transfer capabilities are restricted.
• Exchange Rate and Logistics Costs: Exchange rate and freight fluctuations叠加 supply risks amplify cost-side pressure.

Investment Strategy Recommendations (Layered Logic Based on Above Company Facts):

• Defensive Focus: Upstream planting targets with high profit margins and ROE (e.g., Beidahuang) have stronger resilience under uncertainty.
• Growth Focus: Leaders with scale and full industrial chain coverage (e.g., Yihai Kerry Arawana) have both valuation elasticity and volatility; need to closely track cost control and price transmission rhythm.
• Valuation Repair Focus: Companies with integrated layout but阶段性 earnings pressure (e.g., Suken Agricultural Development) need to observe subsequent inventory management and demand recovery.

Follow-up Supplements and Tracking:

• If quantitative assessment of the sensitivity of “trade frictions/geopolitical changes” to specific companies’ earnings and stock prices is needed, it is recommended to supplement and obtain data such as companies’ cost structures, import source proportions, quarterly inventory turnover and gross profit margin changes from 2023 to 2025, as well as relevant news and policy combing for scenario analysis.

References
[0] Jinling API Data

• Yihai Kerry Arawana (300999.SZ) Company Overview and Real-time Quotes (Including Financial Indicators and Quarterly Results)
  Call Time:2025-12-27; Company:Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co., Ltd; Market Cap: Approximately1578.8 hundred million USD; TTM P/E:41.33x; ROE:4.02%; 2025-10-31 Quarter: Revenue of685.9 hundred million USD, EPS of0.18 USD (both below expectations); Current Price:29.12 USD.
  Source (Tool Record):
  • get_company_overview(symbol=‘300999.SZ’)
  • get_stock_realtime_quote(symbol=‘300999.SZ’)
• Beidahuang (600598.SS) Company Overview and Real-time Quotes (Including Financial Indicators and Stock Price Performance)
  Call Time:2025-12-27; Company:Heilongjiang Agriculture Company Limited; Market Cap: Approximately269.0 hundred million USD; TTM P/E:24.53x; ROE:13.63%; Past 1-year Stock Price:+0.53%, 3-year:+6.40%; Current Price:15.13 USD.
  Source (Tool Record):
  • get_company_overview(symbol=‘600598.SS’)
  • get_stock_realtime_quote(symbol=‘600598.SS’)
• Suken Agricultural Development (601952.SS) Company Overview
  Call Time:2025-12-27; Company:Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co., Ltd; Market Cap: Approximately126.5 hundred million USD; TTM P/E:21.89x; 2025-10-29 Quarter: Revenue of22.2 hundred million USD, EPS of0.07 USD.
  Source (Tool Record):
  • get_company_overview(symbol=‘601952.SS’)